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Climate Change: A Real Threat to Middle East Security

Climate Change: A Real Threat to Middle East Security. Background. About FoEME FoEME study region- Egypt, Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, southern Lebanon Climate Change impacts on water security and regional stability. Background. The Middle East-a politically volatile region

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Climate Change: A Real Threat to Middle East Security

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  1. ClimateChange: A Real Threat to Middle East Security

  2. Background • About FoEME • FoEME study region- Egypt, Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, southern Lebanon • Climate Change impacts on water security and regional stability.

  3. Background • The Middle East-a politically volatile region • Israel/Egypt Peace Treaty but cold peace • 1994 Jordan/Israel Peace Treaty including agreement over the sharing of common water resources • Interim agreements with PA and Israel but water sharing left to final status • No Peace Treaty or water agreements with Lebanon and Syria

  4. Background • Study region characterized by water scarcity: most of the water sources are shared between neighboring countries

  5. Background • Agriculture of key economic importance to Egypt, PA and lesser extent Jordan

  6. Security Implications of Climate Change • Fewer Water Resources Available for Existing Agreements • Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement - 50 mcm/pa • Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water sharing arrangements – 27 mcm/pa • Israel still to provide Jordan with additional 50 mcm/pa – never fulfilled • Israel/PA future needs recognized 70-80 mcm/pa. In final agreement PA demands will be higher.

  7. Security Implications of Climate Change • Fewer Water Resources Available for Future Agreements • Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries • Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the Sea of Galilee

  8. Security Implications of Climate Change • Less rainfall impacts the economy • PA economy heavily dependent on rain fed agriculture for income and employment • Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability • Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide

  9. Security Implications of Climate Change • Sea Level Rise will impact the Israel PA coastal aquifer • Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza • Further contaminate Israel’s coastal aquifer

  10. Security Implications of Climate Change Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy

  11. SocioeconomicImpacts • Severe water shortages • Agricultural losses • Migration in search of resources • Refugees from inundated lands • Economic crisis

  12. Political Ramifications • Increased tension between countries sharing water resources • Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs-> internal instability, likelihood of failed states • Exacerbated marginal living conditions- foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts – General Anthony Zinni • CNA report conclusion - Climate change- a threat multiplier for human security

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