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CHIMERE air quality forecasts : results during Pays de la Loire summer 2004 experiment and end-user point of view. ACRI-ST. Arnaud REBOURS - AIR PAYS DE LA LOIRE. 1st CHIMERE workshop 21, 22 March 2005 -Palaiseau France. French air pollution control networks organization.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

CHIMERE air quality forecasts :

results during Pays de la Loire

summer 2004 experiment

and end-user point of view

  • ACRI-ST
  • Arnaud REBOURS -

AIR PAYS DE LA LOIRE

1st CHIMERE workshop 21, 22 March 2005 -Palaiseau France

slide2

French air pollution control

networks organization

  • 2 missions : air quality survey and information

PARIS

NANTES

Air Pays 

de la Loire

Pays de la Loire region : 3 200 000 inhab.; 32 000 km2

slide3

Laval

St-Nazaire

Cholet

La Roche/Y

Air Pays de la Loire

  • Territorial cover

Le Mans

  • 10 survey zones
  • 50 survey sites
  • continuous control
  • 15 minutes time resolution

Angers

Nantes

slide4

Regional scale : Calgrid

  • Street scale : OSPM

10 august 2003

NO2 - Nantes 2001

  • Industrial scale : Calpuff

11 feb. 2003 - refinery

  • Modelisation tools

Scenario mode

slide5

Summer 2004 experiment : operation by ACRI-ST of an air quality forecast system based on MM5-CHIMERE over the Pays de la Loire region

CONTEXT

  • 18 june 2004 french regulation : during pollution episodes, air quality public information is based on observations or on risk of exceedings of thresholds -> necessity of forecasting development
  • Period : 13 july - 12 october 2004
slide6

GWEST 15 km

  • 2zones :

Great West area

(15 km) and

Pays de la Loire

region (5 km)

APL 5 km

  • 2pollutants :

O3 and NO2

  • 4daily outputs : D-1, D, D+1 and D+2
  • hourly time step

LOCAL FORECASTING PLATFORM

slide7

Interface computer

Job programmer

Forecast computer : MM5-CHIMERE

LOCAL FORECASTING PLATFORM

Inputs

Outputs

Emissions inventory : 5km and 50 km

2D Data

Maps

Meteorological data : NCEP

Platform publication

Continental chemistry : PREV ’AIR

slide8

pollutant

4 days forecasts

zone

pollution

Meteo-

rology

WEB INTERFACE

slide9

FORECAST PRELIMINARY RESULTS

  • Observation data : 20 survey sites
  • Statistical criteria : BIAS and NMSE
slide16

calculation

validation

POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS

  • Vigilance maps improve public information
  • 2 ways :

forecasting

observation

  • 13 alert zones :5 departments (counties), 7 agglomerations, 1 industrial area
  • 3 symbolic colours : green, orange, red
slide17

Forecasted exceeding

POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS

  • Vigilance maps improve public information

Procedure activating conditions

- agglomerations :

2 sites

- departments :

2 agglomerations or

30% of the zone

slide18

POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS

  • Vigilance maps improve

public information

communiqués(fax and e-mail)

web site : www.airpl.org

slide19

POST-PROCESSING ON FORECASTS

  • Air quality index prediction
  • Exceedings evaluations of limit values, quality objectives and target values

Annual

maps

,...)=

slide20

CONCLUSION

  • Forecast results are acceptable for ozone and better than continental modeled values for NO2
  • Local platform brings helps to diagnosis : background pollution in the great west of France, influence of Paris pollution, meteorological forecast parameters
  • Post processing improve air quality information in connection with alert system or daily pollution
slide21

PROSPECTS

  • Integration of detailed emission calculations (AIREMIS)
  • Statistical adaptation of modeled results with observations for D-1 and D steps
  • Integration of meteorological and pollution vertical profiles
  • Local platform should be operated by Air Pays de la Loire during summer 2005