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Types of War, Types of Jeopardy National Defense in the 21 st Century 3 Traditional Kinds of War Genuine Civil Wars Violent conflict over control of the government Examples: Colombia, Sierra Leone, Liberia Wars of Secession

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Types of War,Types of Jeopardy

National Defense in the 21st Century

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3 Traditional Kinds of War

  • Genuine Civil Wars

    • Violent conflict over control of the government

    • Examples: Colombia, Sierra Leone, Liberia

  • Wars of Secession

    • Wars to carve a new country from part of the territory of a current country

    • The US Civil War, Eritrea, end of Yugoslavia

  • Wars between Countries

    • One country invading another

    • The three Gulf Wars

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A New Kind of War: Terrorism

  • Terrorism is the use of violence to frighten people into making political concessions

  • Terrorism is in fact used in each of the three traditional kinds of war

    • Colombian war lords in their civil war

    • ETA, FLQ in secessionist movements

    • Israel and Lebanon, Iraq against Iran

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Non-State Terrorists

  • What is new is the use of terrorism by organizations other than states

    • The Irish Republican Army

    • Islamic Jihad

    • The Red Army Brigades

    • Al Qaeda

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Significance of Technology

  • Weapons

    • Escalation of explosive power

    • Non-explosive options: gas, disease

    • New delivery systems: missiles to suicides

  • Defense

    • Barriers to prevent penetration of weapons

    • Intelligence, both remote and local

  • Communications

    • From great ignorance to virtual reality

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The Cold War’s Balance of Terror

  • Mutually assured destruction

  • Major players

    • NATO, dominated by the USA

    • Warsaw Pact, dominated by the USSR

  • Minor players

    • China

    • Non-aligned states

    • United Nations

    • Surrogates

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Series of Surrogate Wars

  • Latin America

    • Caribbean: Cuba, Grenada

    • Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala

    • South America: CIA coup in Chile

  • Africa

    • Cone of Africa

    • Great Lakes area

  • Asia

    • Vietnam & the rest of the Southeast

    • Afghanistan & the rest of the Southwest

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Militarization of the World

  • The world militarized during the Cold War

  • Both sides developed arms

  • Both sides provided arms to allies

  • Both sides sold arms to willing buyers, sometimes to the harm of each later on

  • Each side found the limits to its power

    • The USA in Vietnam

    • The USSR in Afghanistan

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Optimism after the Cold War

  • Reduced fear of nuclear conflagration

  • Expected peace dividend

  • Evident progress in long-standing conflicts

    • South Africa

    • Northern Ireland

    • Cyprus

    • Middle East

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Disappointing Reality

  • Re-emergence of virulent nationalism

    • Former Yugoslavia, former USSR, Africa

  • Mushrooming arms sales

    • Air power to those with wealth, small arms to others

  • Rise in Terrorism

    • Technological advances

    • Alienation, motivation

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War & Peace in the 21st Century

  • Legacy of land mines

  • Unresolved conflicts

    • Palestinian-Israeli conflict

    • Continuing African wars, e.g. resource wars

    • Latin American drug wars

  • New constellations of security issues

    • Dealing with non-state actors

    • Unilateral or global solutions?

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21st Century Jeopardy

  • What jeopardy is the country you are studying in from

    • Civil war, including terrorism by those wanting to overthrow the state?

    • A war of secession by a group wanting its own sovereignty, including terrorism by that group?

    • War with another country?

    • Terrorism from non-state actors?

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The 21st Century Hegemon

  • What jeopardy does the USA face?

    • Conventional war with another state?

    • Terrorism in its many guises

      • A dirty bomb

      • Biological warfare

      • Disruptive terrorism

  • What options does the USA have for dealing with that jeopardy?

    • In what ways should we lead, in what ways, if any, should we intimidate?

    • What are the limits of our power, and how do these limits influence our options?

    • Nye: using hard and soft power