Types of War,Types of Jeopardy National Defense in the 21st Century
3 Traditional Kinds of War • Genuine Civil Wars • Violent conflict over control of the government • Examples: Colombia, Sierra Leone, Liberia • Wars of Secession • Wars to carve a new country from part of the territory of a current country • The US Civil War, Eritrea, end of Yugoslavia • Wars between Countries • One country invading another • The three Gulf Wars
A New Kind of War: Terrorism • Terrorism is the use of violence to frighten people into making political concessions • Terrorism is in fact used in each of the three traditional kinds of war • Colombian war lords in their civil war • ETA, FLQ in secessionist movements • Israel and Lebanon, Iraq against Iran
Non-State Terrorists • What is new is the use of terrorism by organizations other than states • The Irish Republican Army • Islamic Jihad • The Red Army Brigades • Al Qaeda
Significance of Technology • Weapons • Escalation of explosive power • Non-explosive options: gas, disease • New delivery systems: missiles to suicides • Defense • Barriers to prevent penetration of weapons • Intelligence, both remote and local • Communications • From great ignorance to virtual reality
The Cold War’s Balance of Terror • Mutually assured destruction • Major players • NATO, dominated by the USA • Warsaw Pact, dominated by the USSR • Minor players • China • Non-aligned states • United Nations • Surrogates
Series of Surrogate Wars • Latin America • Caribbean: Cuba, Grenada • Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala • South America: CIA coup in Chile • Africa • Cone of Africa • Great Lakes area • Asia • Vietnam & the rest of the Southeast • Afghanistan & the rest of the Southwest
Militarization of the World • The world militarized during the Cold War • Both sides developed arms • Both sides provided arms to allies • Both sides sold arms to willing buyers, sometimes to the harm of each later on • Each side found the limits to its power • The USA in Vietnam • The USSR in Afghanistan
Optimism after the Cold War • Reduced fear of nuclear conflagration • Expected peace dividend • Evident progress in long-standing conflicts • South Africa • Northern Ireland • Cyprus • Middle East
Disappointing Reality • Re-emergence of virulent nationalism • Former Yugoslavia, former USSR, Africa • Mushrooming arms sales • Air power to those with wealth, small arms to others • Rise in Terrorism • Technological advances • Alienation, motivation
War & Peace in the 21st Century • Legacy of land mines • Unresolved conflicts • Palestinian-Israeli conflict • Continuing African wars, e.g. resource wars • Latin American drug wars • New constellations of security issues • Dealing with non-state actors • Unilateral or global solutions?
21st Century Jeopardy • What jeopardy is the country you are studying in from • Civil war, including terrorism by those wanting to overthrow the state? • A war of secession by a group wanting its own sovereignty, including terrorism by that group? • War with another country? • Terrorism from non-state actors?
The 21st Century Hegemon • What jeopardy does the USA face? • Conventional war with another state? • Terrorism in its many guises • A dirty bomb • Biological warfare • Disruptive terrorism • What options does the USA have for dealing with that jeopardy? • In what ways should we lead, in what ways, if any, should we intimidate? • What are the limits of our power, and how do these limits influence our options? • Nye: using hard and soft power