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Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany, Albany, New York 33 rd Northeastern Storm Conference 14-16 March 2008

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intense surface cyclone activity in the arctic during the 2005 06 and 2006 07 cool seasons

Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

University at Albany, Albany, New York

33rd Northeastern Storm Conference

14-16 March 2008

motivation
Motivation

Major Arctic Shipping Routes

  • Arctic not studied often
  • Intense arctic cyclones

pose economic hazards,

especially to shipping

Source: www.hofstra.edu

purpose
Purpose
  • Establish a limited track climatology
  • Compare cyclone mergers and

nonmergers

  • Present a case study of a cyclone merger event
methodology
Methodology
  • Definitions
    • Cool season – October 1 to March 31
    • Arctic – poleward of 50°N
    • Intense cyclone – central pressure ≤ 980 hPa
  • Subjectively analyzed maps
    • Genesis/lysis time
    • Position and track
    • Central pressure
    • Merging
slide5
Data
  • Maps
    • NH MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness
    • NH dynamic tropopause (DT) potential temperature and wind
  • Datasets
    • GFS 0.5/1.0° analysis
    • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
  • Sources
    • Ron McTaggart-Cowan online GFS animation builder
    • University at Albany DEAS archive room
    • CDC interactive plotting and analysis web page
2005 06 cool season 300 hpa height mean and anomaly
2005-06 Cool Season 300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly

CI = 100m

CI = 10m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

2006 07 cool season 300 hpa height mean and anomaly
2006-07 Cool Season 300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly

CI = 100m

CI = 10m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

2005 06 cool season storm tracks
2005-06 Cool Season Storm Tracks

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

  • 50 Storms
  • Oct/Nov: 20
  • Dec/Jan: 21
  • Feb/Mar: 9
2006 07 cool season storm tracks
2006-07 Cool Season Storm Tracks

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

Case Study

  • 96 Storms
  • Oct/Nov: 25
  • Dec/Jan: 47
  • Feb/Mar: 24
merger locations by month 2005 07
Merger Locations - By Month (2005-07)

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

Case Study

  • 44 Mergers
  • Oct/Nov: 11
  • Dec/Jan: 22
  • Feb/Mar: 11

Arctic/Arctic Mergers

23

Arctic/Mid-latitude Mergers

21

merger locations by strength 2005 07
Merger Locations – By Strength (2005-07)

970 – 980 hPa

960 – 969 hPa

950 – 959 hPa

< 950 hPa

Case Study

  • 44 Mergers
  • 970-980 hPa: 16
  • 960-969 hPa: 17
  • 950-959 hPa: 9
  • < 950 hPa : 2
case study
Case Study
  • Example of a cyclone merger event
  • Occurred in Central Pacific for

11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007

  • Two surface cyclones and three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies merged
300 hpa height mean and anomaly for 11 feb 2007 19 feb 2007
300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly for 11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007

CI = 50m

CI = 15m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

conclusions track climatology
Conclusions: Track Climatology
  • On average there are 10-15 intense arctic cyclones per month
    • High intraseasonal and interannual variability
  • Most frequent over Gulf of Alaska/Aleutians and North Atlantic/East Arctic Oceans
    • Clustering near end of well known storm tracks
conclusions mergers and case study
Conclusions: Mergers and Case Study
  • All mergers occur poleward of 50°N: mid-latitude storms move into arctic due to amplified pattern
  • Mergers typically occur when southern storm is fairly well developed
    • Arctic PV anomaly acts on atmosphere with already high low-level vorticity: expedites further vorticity growth
    • In arctic/mid-latitude mergers, arctic storm provides extra “kick” in the form of vorticity
further research
Further Research

Annual Cyclone Density

  • AO, NAO, PNA related to arctic storm activity
  • Nature of Pacific Jet vs. Atlantic Jet
  • Oceanic diabatic effects
  • Role of arctic PV anomalies

N. America

Source: Hakim and Canavan (2005)