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Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany, Albany, New York 33 rd Northeastern Storm Conference 14-16 March 2008

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Intense surface cyclone activity in the arctic during the 2005 06 and 2006 07 cool seasons l.jpg

Intense Surface Cyclone Activity in the Arctic During the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Brian Silviotti, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

University at Albany, Albany, New York

33rd Northeastern Storm Conference

14-16 March 2008


Motivation l.jpg
Motivation 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Major Arctic Shipping Routes

  • Arctic not studied often

  • Intense arctic cyclones

    pose economic hazards,

    especially to shipping

Source: www.hofstra.edu


Purpose l.jpg
Purpose 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • Establish a limited track climatology

  • Compare cyclone mergers and

    nonmergers

  • Present a case study of a cyclone merger event


Methodology l.jpg
Methodology 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • Definitions

    • Cool season – October 1 to March 31

    • Arctic – poleward of 50°N

    • Intense cyclone – central pressure ≤ 980 hPa

  • Subjectively analyzed maps

    • Genesis/lysis time

    • Position and track

    • Central pressure

    • Merging


Slide5 l.jpg
Data 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • Maps

    • NH MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness

    • NH dynamic tropopause (DT) potential temperature and wind

  • Datasets

    • GFS 0.5/1.0° analysis

    • NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

  • Sources

    • Ron McTaggart-Cowan online GFS animation builder

    • University at Albany DEAS archive room

    • CDC interactive plotting and analysis web page


2005 06 cool season 300 hpa height mean and anomaly l.jpg
2005-06 Cool Season 300 hPa Height 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool SeasonsMean and Anomaly

CI = 100m

CI = 10m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd


2006 07 cool season 300 hpa height mean and anomaly l.jpg
2006-07 Cool Season 300 hPa Height 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool SeasonsMean and Anomaly

CI = 100m

CI = 10m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd


2005 06 cool season storm tracks l.jpg
2005-06 Cool Season Storm Tracks 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

  • 50 Storms

  • Oct/Nov: 20

  • Dec/Jan: 21

  • Feb/Mar: 9


2006 07 cool season storm tracks l.jpg
2006-07 Cool Season Storm Tracks 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

Case Study

  • 96 Storms

  • Oct/Nov: 25

  • Dec/Jan: 47

  • Feb/Mar: 24


Merger locations by month 2005 07 l.jpg
Merger Locations - By Month (2005-07) 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Oct/Nov

Dec/Jan

Feb/Mar

Case Study

  • 44 Mergers

  • Oct/Nov: 11

  • Dec/Jan: 22

  • Feb/Mar: 11

Arctic/Arctic Mergers

23

Arctic/Mid-latitude Mergers

21


Merger locations by strength 2005 07 l.jpg
Merger Locations – By Strength (2005-07) 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

970 – 980 hPa

960 – 969 hPa

950 – 959 hPa

< 950 hPa

Case Study

  • 44 Mergers

  • 970-980 hPa: 16

  • 960-969 hPa: 17

  • 950-959 hPa: 9

  • < 950 hPa : 2


Mergers vs nonmergers l.jpg
Mergers vs. Nonmergers 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


Case study l.jpg
Case Study 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • Example of a cyclone merger event

  • Occurred in Central Pacific for

    11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007

  • Two surface cyclones and three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies merged


300 hpa height mean and anomaly for 11 feb 2007 19 feb 2007 l.jpg
300 hPa Height Mean and Anomaly 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasonsfor 11 Feb. 2007 - 19 Feb. 2007

CI = 50m

CI = 15m

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd


Case study surface lows l.jpg
Case Study – Surface Lows 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Feb. 2007


Case study pv anomalies l.jpg
Case Study – PV Anomalies 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Feb. 2007


Case study pv anomalies and surface lows l.jpg
Case Study – PV Anomalies and Surface Lows 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Feb. 2007


11 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
11 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

C

B

A


12 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
12 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


12 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
12 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


13 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
13 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


13 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
13 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


14 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
14 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


14 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
14 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

AB

C


15 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
15 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


15 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


16 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
16 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


16 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
16 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

AB

D

C


17 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
17 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


17 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
17 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


18 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
18 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

ABD


18 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
18 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


19 feb 2007 00 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
19 Feb. 2007 00 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


19 feb 2007 12 utc dt potential temperature wind l.jpg
19 Feb. 2007 12 UTC DT Potential Temperature, Wind 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


15 feb 2007 12 utc sounding from akita japan l.jpg
15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC Sounding from Akita, Japan 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Source: www.weather.uwyo.edu


11 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
11 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


12 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
12 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


12 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
12 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


13 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
13 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


13 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
13 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


14 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
14 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


14 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
14 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


15 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
15 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


15 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
15 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


16 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
16 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


16 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
16 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


17 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
17 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


17 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
17 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


18 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
18 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


18 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
18 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


19 feb 2007 00 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
19 Feb. 2007 00 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


19 feb 2007 12 utc mslp 1000 500 hpa thickness l.jpg
19 Feb. 2007 12 UTC MSLP, 1000-500 hPa Thickness 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


Conclusions track climatology l.jpg
Conclusions: Track Climatology 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • On average there are 10-15 intense arctic cyclones per month

    • High intraseasonal and interannual variability

  • Most frequent over Gulf of Alaska/Aleutians and North Atlantic/East Arctic Oceans

    • Clustering near end of well known storm tracks


Conclusions mergers and case study l.jpg
Conclusions: Mergers and Case Study 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

  • All mergers occur poleward of 50°N: mid-latitude storms move into arctic due to amplified pattern

  • Mergers typically occur when southern storm is fairly well developed

    • Arctic PV anomaly acts on atmosphere with already high low-level vorticity: expedites further vorticity growth

    • In arctic/mid-latitude mergers, arctic storm provides extra “kick” in the form of vorticity


Further research l.jpg
Further Research 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons

Annual Cyclone Density

  • AO, NAO, PNA related to arctic storm activity

  • Nature of Pacific Jet vs. Atlantic Jet

  • Oceanic diabatic effects

  • Role of arctic PV anomalies

N. America

Source: Hakim and Canavan (2005)


Questions comments l.jpg

Questions/Comments? 2005-06 and 2006-07 Cool Seasons


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