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Background and Motivation. ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). ENSO is classified in three states: Warm (El Niño) Neutral Cool (La Niña). A Warm ENSO year :.

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slide2

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

  • ENSO is classified in three states:
  • Warm (El Niño)
  • Neutral
  • Cool (La Niña)

A Warm ENSO year:

the water year for which the December to February Sea Surface Temperature in the NINO 3.4 region exceeds 0.5 standard deviations above its long-term (1900-1996) mean value.

the effects of enso on pnw winter climate
The effects of ENSOon PNWwinter climate

Source: Climate Impacts Group website

Warm ENSO (El Niño) : winters tend to be warmer and drier than average.

Cool ENSO (La Niña) : winters tend to be cooler and wetter than average.

slide4

Bonners Ferry

Columbia Falls

The Dalles

- Warm ENSO

- Neutral ENSO

X - Cool ENSO

The effects of ENSO on flood risk

for Columbia River Basin

objective

Refill

Flood Control

Objective:
  • Develop ENSO conditioned Flood Control Curves by Rebalancing Flood Control and Reservoir Refill
test case the columbia river basin

Bonners Ferry

Columbia Falls

The Dalles

Test Case: The Columbia River Basin

Multi-objective Reservoir System

  • Flood Control
  • Hydropower
  • Instream Flow
  • Water Supply
  • Recreation
  • Navigation
slide8

Optimization Model Develop Optimized Flood Control Curves

Method : Optimization – Simulation Method

Hydrologic Model Generate Streamflow for 20th Century

Simulation Model Test and Refine Proposed Rule Curves

slide9

VIC Hydrologic Model

(Variable Infiltration Capacity Hydrologic Model)

  • Macroscale Hydrologic Model developed by University of Washington which simulates energy and water balance at large scale at 1/8 degree (Approximately 50 mi2/ Cell)
hec prm
HEC-PRM

(Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Prescriptive Model)

  • Optimization model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers
  • Penalty functions are used to constrain the Columbia River basin system operation
  • Flood control penalties
  • Storage penalties
colsim
ColSim

(Columbia Simulation Model)

  • Flood control
  • Hydropower
  • Irrigation
  • Instream flow
  • Navigation
  • Recreation
optimization strategy

Evaluate Flood and Refill Statistics using Simulation for Each ENSO state

Generate

Optimized

Flood Rule Curves

for Each ENSO State

Classify

Water Years into Each ENSO State

Select

Penalty Functions

for Each ENSO State

Adjust Penalty functions

Optimization Strategy
slide13

Bonners Ferry

Columbia Falls

The Dalles

- Warm ENSO

 - Neutral ENSO

X - Cool ENSO

slide14

Bonners Ferry

Columbia Falls

The Dalles

- Warm ENSO

flood frequency analysis at bonners ferry

- Current Flood Control Curves

- HEC Flood Control Curves

X - ENSO Flood Control Curves

Flood Frequency Analysis at Bonners Ferry

Warm ENSO

Neutral ENSO

Cool ENSO

flood frequency analysis at columbia falls

- Current Flood Control Curves

- HEC Flood Control Curves

X - ENSO Flood Control Curves

Flood Frequency Analysis at Columbia Falls

Neutral ENSO

Warm ENSO

Cool ENSO

flood frequency analysis at the dalles

- Current Flood Control Curves

- HEC Flood Control Curves

X - ENSO Flood Control Curves

Flood Frequency Analysis at The Dalles

Warm ENSO

Neutral ENSO

Cool ENSO

storage deficits
Storage Deficits

Warm ENSO

Neutral ENSO

Cool ENSO

conclusions
Conclusions

ENSO conditioned FC rule curves yield lower storage deficits than Current FC without significantly increasing flood risks

ENSO FC is successfully calibrated using ENSO conditioned flood frequency curves and storage deficit statistics even though each ENSO category has relatively small sample size.

conclusions1
Conclusions
  • ENSO conditioned FC rule curves yield reduced storage deficits relative to HEC FC
  • There is no effect of reduced flood space on storage deficits for low flow years because flood control is not the main driver in low flow years.
conclusions2
Conclusions
  • ENSO conditioned FC rule curves yield reduced storage deficits relative to HEC FC
  • There is no effect of reduced flood space on storage deficits for low flow years because flood control is not the main driver in low flow years.