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Economic Environment and Investments Analysis by Dawie Roodt

In this comprehensive analysis, Dawie Roodt presents insights into GDP, fiscal policy, state finances, monetary policy, and the SA business cycle. Understand key factors affecting investments and economic trends.

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Economic Environment and Investments Analysis by Dawie Roodt

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  1. The Economic Environment and Investments Presented by: Dawie Roodt 13 July 2006

  2. Real Economy

  3. GDP

  4. GDP

  5. Fiscal Policy

  6. State Finances

  7. State Finances

  8. State Finances

  9. Results • Lower interest payments • More social expenditure • Better ratings • Strong demand

  10. Monetary Policy

  11. Interest rates

  12. Interest rates

  13. Inflation

  14. Inflation

  15. Exchange rates Rand

  16. Gold $800 ANC, Reds fall Election NOFP + NOFP - Fin Rand Exchange controls Stock exchange crash Rus, Zim, Arg Asian crises Wakefordgate Rand Valuation Rubicon

  17. Financial

  18. Disposable income of households Source: SARB

  19. Household debt to disposable income Source: SARB

  20. Savings to disposable income of households Source: SARB

  21. Debt Servicing Cost

  22. Commodity Prices

  23. Commodity Prices

  24. Balance of Payments

  25. Balance of Payments

  26. Balance of Payments

  27. Results • Interest rates climbing • Inflation jumps slightly • Large current account deficit • Commodity prices – effect on businesses and inflation outlook • Currency exposed to global volatility • Alarming increase in PSCE • Stellar household debt/disposable income • Lack of ‘savings culture’ by households

  28. SA Business Cycle 44 19 15 21 35 51 42 33 82+ (months)

  29. SA Business Cycle 44 19 15 21 35 51 42 33 82+ (months)

  30. SA Business Cycle • Longest upwards phase on record (Sept ’99 - ?) • Business cycle phases since 1945 (Post war): • Upward phases (15) • Duration in months: 441 • Downward phases (14) • Duration in months: 285

  31. Comparison 2003 -2005

  32. Comparison 2003 -2005

  33. Asset Allocation

  34. Local Equities, 2006

  35. www.efgroup.co.za

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