Beyond incrementalism and planning The Dutch model of transition management

1. Beyond incrementalism and planning The Dutch model of transition management René Kemp ICIS, MERIT & DRIFT Presentation at ITAS, Karlsruhe, 13 nov 2006

2. Planning for sustainable development De Oosterscheldekering in Zeeland (NL): an open dam with gates that can be closed The dam is constructed out of 65 concrete pillars with 62 steel doors of 42 metres wide. Each pillar is between 35 and 38,75 metres high and weighs 18000 tonnes

3. Planning has a bad name “Too many atrocities of stupidity and immorality have been based on anticipatory rationality, and too many efforts to improve human action through importing technologies of decision engineering have been disappointing” (March and Olsen, 1995: 198-199)

4. Typical projects for sustainability • Buses running on biodiesel or natural gas • Energy efficient homes • Solar panels • Recycling schemes

5. These projects fit with certain visions of sustainable development, such as • Renewables based energy system • Closing of material streams • Selfsufficiency BUT • the visions are not democratically chosen • nor are they used in a programmatic way

6. The Dutch “transition approach” • Led by the Ministry of Economic Affairs (responsible for business, energy and innovation) • Goal: to achieve a transition to a low-carbon economy • In a bottom-up, top-down manner, moving from programmes & experiments to alternative systems of energy, agriculture and mobility

7. Top-down elements • 26 transition paths • 5 platforms for energy transition • Government support for experiments (35 million euro) • Policy renewal

8. Biomass Policy Renewal New Gas Sustainable electricity Eff. Energy Chains Areas of interest

9. Selected transition paths

10. Bottom-up elements • Business alliances • Experiments • Identification of barriers / opportunities informing private action and policy

11. How serious is all this? • Platform for “green resources” (one of official 5 platforms)  4 transition paths • 60 million euro for biofuels • In 2007 2% blending requirement for gasoline and diesel • Certification system

12. Why is NL interested in biomass? • Because NL is a gas country (biomass can be turned into a gas) • Because agriculture business and the logistic sector (Rotterdam harbour) are interested in it • Because the chemical industry thinks it may obtain an competitive edge from knowledge-intensive, green materials • Because ECN is a world leader in biomass gassification

13. The biomass vision Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’ ‘Strategic goals’ 10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic 2020 A. Gasification B. Pyrolysis ‘Transition Paths’ Expv 2 à 3 % C. Biofuels Exp 2003 EOS EOS : experiments : R&D Exp 2050

14. The philosophy behind TM: Perspektivischer Inkrementalismus or directed incrementalism • The use of multiple visions (because visions create better world together rather than apart) • The use of experimental learning • Adaptive portfolios: each option has to prove its worth • Policy as a facilitator of change (with government as partner of business)

15. Societal goals Political margins for change Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic) State of development of solutions Sustainability visions Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal) Transition Management bifocal instead of myopic

16. Organising multi-actor networks Developing sustainability visions and transition-agendas Evaluating, monitoring and learning Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Circular elements • Portfolio of official transition paths • Transition experiments • Instrument choices • Policy coordination Source: Loorbach (2004)

17. The use of science and knowledge • Science, technology and innovation more oriented towards transition goals • Visioning • Sustainability assessment • Discussions about transition management

18. What is transition management really? • 21st century corporatism • A reflexive form of steering (reflexive goverance)

19. Organisational background of Taskforce Energy transition and Platform members Compiled by Roel van Raak

20. Members of platform “green resources” • Paul Hamm (formerly at DSM, chair) • Dhr. G.G. Bemer (Koninklijke Nedalco)  • Dhr. A. van den Biggelaar (Stichting Natuur en Milieu) • Mevr.dr.ir. M.J.P. Botman (Ministerie van Economische Zaken) • Prof.dr. A. Bruggink (NWO-ACTS / Universiteit Nijmegen / DSM) • Ir. K.W. Kwant (SenterNovem) • Dhr. P. Lednor (Shell Global Solutions) • Dr. Peter M. Bruinenberg (AVEBE) • Prof.dr. E.M. Meijer (Unilever) • Prof.dr. J.P.M. Sanders (Agrotechnology & Food Innovations) • Prof.dr. W.P.M. van Swaaij (Universiteit Twente) • Prof.dr. H. Veringa (ECN) • Dr. J. Vanhemelrijck (EuropaBio) • Prof.dr.ir. L.A.M. van der Wielen (Technische Universiteit Delft)  

21. Incrementalism Transition management as a model of reflexive governance Planning Key actors Private and public actors Private and public actors Bureaucrats and experts Steering philosophy Partisan mutual adaptation Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator Hierarchy Mechanism for coordination Markets and emergent institutionalisation Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent) Hierarchy (top-down) Role for anticipation Limited (no long-term goals) Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction Future is anticipated and implemented Type of learning First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring) First-order (instrumental)

22. Incrementalism Transition management as a model of reflexive governance Planning Degree of adaptivity Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity Hardly adaptive Role for strategy and plans Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation. Plans with steps Interest mediation/ conflict resolution Individual gains for everyone Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics Little mediation (implementation and enforcement) Type of change that is sought Incremental, non-disruptive change System innovation and system improvement Predetermined outcome

23. What ever it is-- it is receiving attention

24. Transition activities • 70 researchers are working on transition issues in the research network KSI[1] • There is a competence center for transitions (CCT) and two newly created knowledge centers (Drift[2]and KCT). • Various ministries, the Interdepartmental IPE, Senternovem (intermediary organization), provinces, regions and municipalities are involved in implementing transition management. • Many companies are involved and some NGOs (in particular SNM). • Examples of organizations active in developing and implementing their own approach towards transition management are provincial environmental organizations of Flevoland, Zuid-Holland, Zeeland and Gelderland, and the Foundation for Nature and the Environment[1]www.ksinetwork.org • [2]www.drift.eur.nl Source: Loorbach 2006

25. Why we need transition management Because of the barriers to system innovation -- which have to with uncertainty, the need for change at various levels and vested interests Because public policy is highly fragmented and oriented towards short term goals Because of the need for societal support for transition policies and for legitimising policies towards structural change Because a gradual approach of small steps is economically not disruptive and politically and socially do-able

26. Dilemmas for Governance for sustainable development • Different visions and interests • Political myopia (politics needs short-term successes) • Determination of short-term steps for long-term change • What role for markets? What technologies to support for how long? • How to adapt support policies (angry orphans problem)?

27. Misunderstandings • Transition management relies on blueprints Not true: it is based on a set of goals and quality images (visions). The goals and policies are constantly re-evaluated and periodically adjusted. This creates some flexibility but maintains a sense of direction. • Transition management is the enemy of control policies Not true: control policies are needed. Transition management adds something to such policies: a framework and a commitment to change.. • Transition management is something consensual Not true: There are stakes and ultimately winners and losers. • It will succeed where other policies will fail Not true: it helps to achieve greater coherence in policy and increases diversity

28. Reflexive strategies injecting feedback in actor-rule system dynamics Source: Voss and Kemp (2005) based on Burns and Flam (1987)