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How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change?

AGU, 2003. How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change?. Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute. Greenland. Nordic Seas. Iceland. Norway. Better predictions for better adaptation. Faroes. Northeast Atlantic. Scot- land.

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How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change?

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  1. AGU, 2003 How will the Northeast Atlanticand its living resourcesrespond to global climate change? Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute Greenland Nordic Seas Iceland Norway Better predictions for better adaptation Faroes Northeast Atlantic Scot- land image:AGU 2003

  2. The Earth Global climate change Warming = Energy in – Energy out Regional climate change Winds and currents move energy What if they change ?

  3. Mean sea surface temperature 5ºC 60º 5ºC 60º NOAA

  4. Arctic Ocean Cooling Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Greenland-Scotland Ridge Faroes Scot- land North Atlantic Overflow

  5. Freshwater The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC) Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean Cooling Labrador Sea Increasing salinity 500 – 1000 years IPCC-2007: it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century Antarctic

  6. Measurements

  7. AGU, 2003 Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water (millions m3/second) Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994 Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992 No significant trend image:AGU 2003 Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992

  8. Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken 1948-2005 Labrador Sea convection But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s

  9. Projected surface warming 2080-2099 for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007) 2 – 3 ºC warming ºC

  10. One model Warming 2091-2100 at 200-500 m depth according to AR4climate models(Yin et al., 2011) > 3°C warming Average of 19 climate models Another model > 2°C warming Cooling MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models “No” change

  11. Whither the fish With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas But, changing currents may be more important ?

  12. The marine ecosystem Artist:Glynn Gorick King Cod

  13. Clouds Rain Wind Light What will happen to King Cod ? Air temperature Phytoplankton Temperature and currents

  14. Ocean acidification CO2 H2CO3 - HCO3 + H+ H+ + CO3 HCO3 -- - -- CO3 + 2H+

  15. The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlanticwill, no doubt,change dramatically But, HOW ?

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