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FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES

FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES. Roberto Rodrigues. Washington / USA - October, 28th 2008 - OAS. The ten biggest problems for the humanity in the next 50 years. AGRICULTURE.

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FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES

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  1. FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES Roberto Rodrigues Washington / USA - October, 28th 2008 - OAS

  2. The ten biggest problems for thehumanity in the next 50 years AGRICULTURE Energy EducationWater Democracy Food PopulationEnvironment DiseasePoverty Terrorism & war Source: Alan MacDiarmid, em São Carlos – SP

  3. Trends Changes in the demand:Sustainability:Economical, social and environmental- flavor - quality - traceability - health - environment - organic products 3 15/07/2014

  4. Increase.% Part.% 2000-2025 2025 China 13.2% 17.4% India 36.6% 16.8% Africa 68.9% 15.4% World 33.9% 100% Food Demand(2000 – 2025) + 62.0% Trends Demographic trends: Source: Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol. 27, nº 03 (março/2007) Elaboration: GV Agro

  5. Rural billion of people Urban Trends Projection of the urban and rural population in the world Source: ONU Elaboration: GV Agro

  6. Trends Evolution of GDP (2006-2013) • World:4.6% a.a • Countries of G-7: 2.2% a.a • Developing countries:7.1% a.a Participation in the world GDP 2006 2013 Countries of G-7 Países do G-7 59.5% 53.6% Others devoloped 15.8% 15.6% Developing countries 24.7% 30.8% 6 15/07/2014 Source: FMI Nota: PIB a preços de 2005

  7. World: offer and estimated demand for food (in million tons) Source: FAO (2003) Elaboration: AGE – MAPA ¹ all of consumed meats

  8. Global stockpiles Elaboration GV Agro Source: USDA (out/08)

  9. Global stocks of grains Production x Consumption*: total in the period (2000/01-2007/08) Brazil produces surpluses to supply the world stocks Source: USDA Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat and Barley. In thousand tons Elaboração: GV Agro

  10. Brazilian agribusiness exports Main products (by value) - 1965 Source: UN COMTRADE Elaboration: GV Agro Agribusiness Exports: US$ 1.35 billion (84.4%) Total Brazilian Exports: US$ 1.59 billion 10 15/07/2014

  11. Brazilian agribusiness exports Main products (by value) 11 15/07/2014

  12. Brazilian Agribusiness Exports US$ 20.5 bi US$ 63.9 bi Developing Countries from US$ 6.2 bi to US$ 29.1 bi Variation (2000-2008*): +21.3% a.a. Developed Countries from US$ 14.4 bi to US$ 34.8 bi Variation (2000-2008*): +11.7% a.a. 12 Source: Aliceweb-MDIC. Nota: * from jun/07toa mai/08 Elaboration: GV Agro 15/07/2014

  13. Brazilian production of grain - 27.2 million tons The use of high technology resulted on an increase of 99% in productivity at the period from 1990/1991 to 2007/08. 13 * 1ª Estimate (october/2008) Source: CONAB Elaboration: GV Agro 15/07/2014

  14. Brazil: meat production Broiler +200% Beef +77% Pork +130% 14 Sources: ABIEC, ABEF e ABIPECS Notes: *Estimative 15/07/2014

  15. 21st Century: the beginning of a New Era % Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCESUp to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%. Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MaConald, 1998 and Energy Information Administration - EIA/USA

  16. Why biofuels?

  17. Organization of the market • More countries producing • Elimination of myths • Global strategy 17 15/07/2014

  18. More countries producing Energetic matrix – Brazil and World Brazil World Renewable sources:45.8% Participation in the total consumption 2.1% 48.5% 100% In 2007, sugarcane became the second main source of energy in Brazil. World total: 11,434 Mtep Source: MME/BEN (2007) Elaboration: GV Agro

  19. More countries producing Energy: consumptionper capita (2006) Tropical region: favourable to the sugarcane production 100 countries could supply biofuels to 200 nations, while currently 20 oil producers provide fossil fuels to the rest of the World. Tons oil equivalent Source: BPStatistical Review of World Energy Elaboration: GV Agro

  20. Demand for planted area34,4million ha(using E-20) Marketpotential for ethanol Substitution of part of the gasoline 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 and E-20 World: potential demand for ethanol (billion liters / year) Worldwide demand for ethanol in the 3 cenarios (billion liters / year): 60.1 120.2 and 240.5 Sources: IEA, CONAB e IBGE Notas: para o cálculo da área, considerou-se um rendimento de 7.000 litros/ha. Elaboration: GV Agro

  21. There is still a lot of arable land worldwilde “Taking these data at face value, and in relative terms, there is greatest potential for agricultural expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South and Central America, which together form over 70% of the global potential increase.” Source: LAND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS AT REGIONAL AND COUNTRY LEVELS FAO Rome, 2000

  22. Ethanol world production: projection to 2012 22 Note: projections 2008/2012 are based on the capacity of production and the target of consumption of the main countries Source: Fapri, Acti, FO Licht, Unica and Toepfer Elaboration: UNICA 15/07/2014

  23. Eliminating all myths Emissions of CO2 in 2005: 20 main polluters 50% of emissions 23 Source: Embrapa Monitoramento por Satélite Elaboration: GV Agro 15/07/2014

  24. Emission of GHG through the replacementof gasoline by ethanol Ethanol from beet(E.U) Ethanol from corn(USA) Ethanol from sugarcane (Brazil) Compared to diesel, biodiesel reduces in about 50% of the CO2 emissions. The replacement of 1,000 buses (diesel) by buses that use ethanol would avoid the emission of 96 tons of CO2 per year, equivalentto emissions of 20,000 cars with gasoline. Since 1970, is estimated that the use of ethanol in Brazil has avoided emissions of 644 million tons of CO2 and 25.8 million tons last year. 24 15/07/2014

  25. Eliminating all myths Production with sustainability Source: IBGE and CONAB

  26. Eliminating all myths 7.1 million of ha were preserved Sugarcane: evolution of the productivity Production(million tons) Preserved Area ** Planted Area(million ha) Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário: 1970-1975-1980-1985; PAM (1990 até 2006); e LSPA (2007 e 2008) Elaboration: GV Agro Note: * Estimate **Area calculated by the productivity of 1970

  27. Eliminating all myths 9.3 Balance of energy Energy contained in the fuel / Used fossil energy to produce fuel * Fuel completely not renewable has value lower than 1.* Values superior to 1 indicate how much renewable is the fuel. Source: World Watch Institute

  28. Biofuels: production costs 2.00 1.80 Energy costs 1.60 1.40 1.20 Processing 1.00 costs 0.80 0.60 Feedstock 0.40 US$/l gasoline equivalent costs 0.20 0.00 - 0.20 Co - product value - 0.40 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 Net price Ethanol Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Ethanol gasoline Sugar cane Maize Rape oil Sugar beet Wheat Net costs, total Brazil USA EU EU EU Year, fuel type, country Source: OECD

  29. Brazil: Automobilesand light vehicles – fleetprojection (2006 to 2015) million of vehicles Sources: ANFAVEA, MAPA and ICONE

  30. Soil and climate adapted to the sugarcane production without irrigation Eliminating all myths Excluded the Amazon Region, Pantanal and declivity superior to 12% Source: UNICAMP

  31. Eliminating all myths Brazil: herd of cattle x pasture pasture area cattle (heads) More efficient livestock liberation of land for the agriculture Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário) e IEA/SP Elaboration: GV Agro *lotação média de São Paulo (2006)

  32. Global strategy Energy content of the sugarcane Energy contained in 1,000 tons of sugarcane(tons in petroleum equivalent ) Total energy: 162.59 tons in petroleum equivalent Source: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000

  33. Global strategy Estimatesofthepotentialofbioeletricity in Brazil The bagasse resulting from the processing of the cane represents 30% of the total volume. Raw material for the bioeletricity production Source: Cogen and Unica

  34. Participation of the products in the income of the sector Exports Bioelectricity- Potential - Ethanol Domestic 51% Exports Sugar 32% Domestic Source: UNICA Note: For the calculation of the percentile of 2015/16 it was used as base the potential for production and export at constant prices of 2006.

  35. Challenges to the sector • Commercial limitations? - protected markets - internal oil protection - self-sufficiency (target of the countries) - low/high prices cycles• Constant Expansion of the Offer - offer and demand balance - investments

  36. Challenges to the sector • Sectorial Regulation• Research and Development• Planning• Administration

  37. The ethanol certifications “Babel” National Certifications EU Directives European Union ETHANOL PBCB Brazilian Biofuel Program Certification Brazilian Government Biofuel CertificationMeó Consulting Team German Government Sustainable Production of Biomass Cramer Commission Dutch Government RTFO Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation UK Government Institutional Certifications RTSB Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels Based in Switzerland Certifications proliferation schemes is counterproductive: discourages initiatives and investments, particularly in developing countries. BSI Better Sugarcane Initiative Based in United Kingdom Deprived certifications SEKAB, GREENERGY Sweden, United Kingdom 37 15/07/2014

  38. Thank You! gvagro@fgv.br  +55 (11) 3281-3645

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