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Wind Market Overview. COG Renewable Energy Seminar June 22, 2005. Presentation by: Randall Swisher, Executive Director American Wind Energy Association. American Wind Energy Association. The National Trade Association representing the Wind Industry in the U.S.

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Presentation by randall swisher executive director american wind energy association l.jpg

Wind Market Overview

COG Renewable Energy Seminar

June 22, 2005

Presentation by: Randall Swisher, Executive Director

American Wind Energy Association


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American Wind Energy Association

  • The National Trade Association representing the Wind Industry in the U.S.

    • Over 700 Business Members, including:

      • Turbine Manufacturers

      • Component Suppliers

      • Project Developers

      • Electric Utilities

      • Lawyers, Consultants, Investors, etc.


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Benefits of Renewables

  • Economic Development

  • Energy Cost Stability

  • Resource Diversity & Conservation

  • Environmental


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Renewable Technologies Aren’t All the Same

  • Applications are Different

  • Economics are Different

  • Market Barriers are Different


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Turbines: Different Sizes and Applications

  • Small(10 kW)

  • Homes (Grid-connected)

  • Farms

  • Remote Applications

  • (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites)

  • Intermediate

  • (10-500 kW)

  • Village Power

  • Hybrid Systems

  • Distributed Power

  • Large (500 kW – 5 MW)

  • Central Station Wind Farms

  • Distributed Power

  • Offshore Wind


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Different Types of Wind Power: Large

Utility Power Plants

Single Large

Turbine

Vermont Wind Farm

Wind Farm

Danish Offshore Wind Farm


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Different Types of Wind Power: Small

Small Turbines Serve Individual Customers

Water Pumper

Customer-Owned Small Generator


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Different Types of Wind Power

Individual Large Turbines for Municipal Needs

Spirit Lake Schools, Iowa

Traverse City, Mich. Utility


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Wind Power Isn’t Perfect

  • Wind Power output varies over time

  • Wind Power can only meet part of your load

  • Wind Power is location-dependent

  • Wind Power is transmission-dependent

  • Wind Power has environmental impacts

. . . But Wind Power has a Great Future!


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Wind Is Growing Worldwide

Global Wind Capacity More Than Tripled in Last Five Years

  • Germany: 16,629 MW

  • Spain: 8,263 MW

  • United States: 6,740 MW

  • Denmark: 3,117 MW

  • India: 3,000 MW

Global Cumulative Total Over 47,300 MW by end of 2004

Source: AWEA’s Global Market Report


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Wind Has Hit Sustained Takeoff in the U.S.

  • 2005 will be a record year – about 2,500 MW

  • 6,740 MW now installed

  • Market fundamentals are strong

    • Wind’s Competitive Posture Strong and Improving

      • No Longer “Alternative Energy”

    • Growing Interest Within Financial Community

    • U.S. Should be World’s Largest Wind Market Over Next Decade

  • Consistent policy is key current constraint



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Driving Forces Behind Wind’s Growth in U.S.

  • Wind’s Steadily Improving Economics

  • State Policy

  • Gas Price Volatility

  • Utility Experience and Perspective

  • Environmental Issues


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Renewable Energy Standards Growth in U.S.

MT: 15% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000

MN: 19% by 2015

  • 19 state standards

  • Technology, vintage, credit trading, sunset, location eligibility requirements differ

RI: 16% by 2019

WI: 2.2% by 2011

MA: 4% by 2009

NY: 25% by 2013

CT: 10% by 2010

NV: 15% by 2013

NJ: 6.5% by 2012

MD: 7.5% by 2014

PA: 8% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

CA: 20% by 2017

IA: 2% by 1999

HI: 20% by 2020

AZ: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 2.7% by 2009


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Wind Insures Against Fuel Price Risk Growth in U.S.

  • Platts “conservatively estimates that generating electricity from renewable sources can ultimately save consumers more than $5/MWh by eliminating fuel price risk”*

    *4/8/03 announcement re “Power Price Stability: What’s it Worth?”

Great River Energy


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Different Ways to Buy Renewable Energy Growth in U.S.

  • Rate Based as Part of Utility Portfolio

  • Green Pricing

    • No competition, monopoly utility offers customers choice of supporting wind power construction.

  • Green Marketing

    • In competitive market, customers empowered to choose service providers that contract to purchase renewables

  • Green Tags

    • Environmental attributes divorced from energy


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Wind Energy is the Star of the Green Market! Growth in U.S.

Represents 93.8%* of Green Power in the U.S.

  • Environmental Benefit

  • Cost-Competitive

  • Popular

  • Visual Appeal

  • Hydro and Gas Resources Complementary

*Source: NREL, Sept. 2004


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Benefits of Wind: Growth in U.S.

Environmental

  • Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 100 MMT/year cut in CO2 emissions

  • Reduced Air Pollution

    30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 250,000 tons/year cut in NOx emissions

  • Reduced Water Pollution

    U.S. wind capacity at 30,000 MW = reduced mercury emissions and healthier water for all Americans


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What is Wind’s Market Potential? Growth in U.S.

  • At least 20,000 MW total installed by 2010 in U.S.

  • 6% of electricity supply by 2020

= 100,000 MW of wind power installed by 2020

= a $150 billion market!


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What are the Barriers to a Growth in U.S.$150 Billion U.S. Wind Market?

  • Inconsistent Policy

  • Transmission constraints

  • Electric Industry Operational Rules

  • Siting


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Wind Development in the Mid-Atlantic Growth in U.S.

  • Siting often challenging

  • Projects often smaller

  • Wind speeds lower than Great Plains

  • Green Market Important


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Mid-Atlantic Wind Issues: Growth in U.S.Regional Collaboration is Essential

  • A Working Green Market in PJM Region

    • Implement a certificates-based energy tracking system

    • Green Power Standard Offer Service

  • Coherent Regional Policy

    • Regional RPS

    • Regional CO2 cap & trade

  • Clean Air credits/allowances for renewables

  • Transmission expansion and rules

  • Thanks for leadership


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Contact AWEA Growth in U.S.

www.AWEA.org

RSwisher@awea.org

Or write to

American Wind Energy Association

1101 14th Street NW, 12th Floor

Washington, DC 20005