Three issues are driving concerns related to the global uses of nuclear technology.

1. Summary of the “Group of 7” National Laboratory Directors’ Recommendations for the Future of Nuclear Energy Craig F. Smith Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 15 November 2004

2. Three issues are driving concerns related to the global uses of nuclear technology. International Stability • National Security • Demand increases on resources • Unreliable fuel supplies • Population and standard of living growth • Proliferation of WMD • Cost & reliability of fuel & energy • Infrastructure vulnerability • Terrorist Activities • Proliferation of nuclear & dirty weapons • Environmental Integrity • Particulate emissions • Greenhouse gas emissions • Global warming • Water supply: quality/quantity

3. Energy demand growth is occurring globally, and the greatest growth rates will be in the developing world Energy stress will involve fuel suppliers, power generation, transportation of fuel, and energy distribution infrastructures

4. Internationally there are ongoing plans for nuclear energy expansion • 33 Countries with nuclear power plants • Worldwide: 366 GWe installed, ~35 GWe currently under construction (~2%/year growth rate) • China has the most aggressive program -- China’s nuclear energy plan -- China’s fast reactor plans • Present: 6.1 GWe • Experimental: 25MWe (2006) • 2020: 32 GWe • Prototype:300-600 MWe(2020) • 2030: 45-50 GWe • Large: 1000-1500 MWe (2025) • ~2050: 240 GWe • Modular: 4-6x300 MWe (2025) Managing nuclear materials and proliferation is becoming increasingly complex, requiring a modernized international approach.

5. Several National Laboratory Directors have joined forces to consider the global role of nuclear energy • Initially, a group known as the “Tri-Lab” met to consider the global future of nuclear energy. The Tri-Lab consisted of the Directors from LLNL, LANL and ANL • Subsequently the Tri Lab was expanded to include ORNL, INEL,and SNL (6-Lab) and, most recently, PNNL (7-Lab). • In July 2002, the 6-Lab Directors sent a letter detailing their vision to Secretary Abraham entitled “Enabling a Global Nuclear Future.” • In April 2003, the Lab Directors sent Secretary Abraham an Action Plan entitled “Nuclear Energy: Power for the 21st Century.” • More recently, the 7-Laboratory group sponsored a “Decision-Maker’s Forum” on Nuclear Energy, and has initiated collaborative discussions with their Russian national laboratory counterparts

6. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory The Six Seven National Lab Directors Developed an Action Plan that Supports a Strong US Nuclear Energy Program Vision: Sustainable peace, prosperity, and environmental quality, enabled through immediate U.S. leadership in the global expansion of nuclear energy systems

7. The 6(7)-Lab Nuclear Energy Action Plan: Goal 1 addresses environmental security. • Goal #1: Reduce air pollution and global climate risk and improve energy security by meeting an increasing fraction of future US and world energy needs through safe and economic nuclear energy solutions Provide incentives to encourage industry to order a new nuclear power plant by 2008 Demonstrate hydrogen production in an advanced reactor by 2010-2012: One pound of nuclear fuel = 250,000 gallons hydrogen equivalent

8. Goal #2 addresses spent fuel and radioactive waste. • Goal #2: Achieve a 90% reduction of reactor waste requiring repository disposal by 2050 by significantly reducing the amount of uranium, plutonium, and minor actinides in disposed waste Construct a fast-spectrum reactor prototype by 2020 for electricity production and nuclear materials management Construct pilot recycle and waste form facilities by 2010 to reduce waste

9. Goal #3 focuses on the reduction of proliferation risk. • Goal #3: While expanding the use of nuclear technology world wide, reduce the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation Enable cradle-to-grave services through advanced materials management and very efficient exportable reactors Demonstrate nuclear fuel recycle in an advanced reactor by 2020 Demonstrate a global nuclear materials management system by 2020

10. The US and Russian Lab Directors met in Vienna to discuss their respective views on the future of Nuclear Energy • The Directors agreed on the importance of energy to international security, economic prosperity, and global stability; nuclear energy must be considered a key component of future global energy systems • A proactive approach to development of global nuclear energy has the potential to offer a safe, abundant and clean energy source while directly dealing with the issue of nuclear materials management and weapons proliferation • A comprehensive and integrated international plan for the development and deployment of nuclear energy is needed.

11. World leaders recognize that a new approach is needed, and that non-proliferation must be a major emphasis The DOE Laboratory Directors concluded that: • The time has come to develop a comprehensive and realistic plan to ensure the development and deployment of nuclear energy. It must preserve access to nuclear energy for all countries of the world, and in parallel, reduce the risks of nuclear arms’ proliferation, nuclear terrorism and hazardous impacts on environment and population health. US and Russian Lab Directors are working jointly: • Presidents Bush and Putin, as well as Director General ElBaradei of the IAEA, have all called for this new paradigm. Our organizations, who developed this world-changing energy source 50 years ago, must take this challenge together.

12. Major Concerns Continue Despite the Successes of the NPT Regime DESPITE THE SUCCESSES OF THE NPT REGIME….. • Previous “Threshold States” Have Signed the NPT • South Africa (the first nation to actually disassemble a nuclear weapons stockpile) • Argentina • Brazil • Cuba • Algeria • South Korea • Taiwan • All of the successor states of the FSU have signed the NPT • The last two “holdout nuclear weapons states” – France and China, signed the NPT in 1988 and 1992, respectively • India and Pakistan are entering into cooperation agreements NEVERTHELESS, MAJOR PROLIFERATION CONCERNS CONTINUE. • North Korea • Iran • Libya • Iraq

13. Any Future Approach Must Address Non-Proliferation Concerns The 4 Non-Proliferation Cornerstones • Assured fuel supplies for economic stability • Assured waste fuel take back • Robust international monitoring system • Agreed enforcement norms ALL 4 HAVE BOTH TECHNICAL and POLICY ASPECTS

14. Any approach must comprehensively address the challenges faced by nuclear power Issues and challenges for nuclear power • Controlling nuclear material (proliferation) • Spent Nuclear Fuel • Excess Defense Materials (Pu and HEU) • Research reactor fuels (HEU) • Radiological sources • Addressing nuclear waste • Ensuring safety of materials and facilities • Achieving economic competitiveness for nuclear power

15. New Science and Technology must be deployed internationally • Enhanced safeguards for implementation of additional protocol • New paradigm for fuel cycle supplier/user states • Build on existing agreements with NPT and IAEA • Manage fresh fuel supplies and waste returns • Advanced nuclear systems are essential • -- Reactors (long life cores, deep burn, etc.) • -- Advanced Fuels (unattractive for diversion) • -- Fuel cycles (controls, actinide consumption) • -- Integrated safeguards (sensors, information technologies) • -- Waste management (cost effective, material efficient)

16. For example, the Small Secure Transportable Autonomous Reactor (SSTAR) offers a novel approach SSTAR is a concept being jointly developed by LLNL, ANL and LANL • Sealed core: no on-site refueling • Transportability: entire core and reactor vessel remain as a unit • Long-life Core: target is 30-year core life • Simple integrated controls: minimum operator intervention or maintenance required • Local and remote observability: rapid detection & response to perturbations • Minimum industrial infrastructure required in host location • Very small operational (and security) footprint • TO BE COMPLETED

17. Conclusions • Nuclear energy is expanding globally, resulting in increased complexity for managing nuclear materials and proliferation risk. • The need for a new international approach is recognized by the world’s leaders and now requires the technologist’s input. • New science and technology will underpin any new approach • Not all countries will need, nor can they afford full fuel cycle capabilities resulting in supplier/user relationships. • International stability will require all of these actions. It is incumbent upon the major nuclear powers to provide leadership in technology for defining a modern cradle-to-grave approach for managing nuclear materials, globally.