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Early Recovery Gap Analysis: Addressing Economic Impact and Vulnerability Post-Floods

This analysis outlines the preliminary findings of the macroeconomic context following recent floods, highlighting substantial output losses estimated at approximately 2% of GDP for the current year. Key agricultural yields such as wheat and sunflower have shown improvement, yet vulnerability has surged, with over half of households reporting significant income declines. The fiscal impact has been managed due to foreign exchange inflows and resource re-appropriation. Priority areas include agricultural regeneration, shelter provision for the most vulnerable, and restoration of services and infrastructure.

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Early Recovery Gap Analysis: Addressing Economic Impact and Vulnerability Post-Floods

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Mapping and Gap Analysis Summarised Preliminary Results

  2. Macroeconomic Context of Early Recovery • Growth impact estimates lowered – but still substantial (Output losses of ≈2% of GDP est. in current year due to floods) • Yields of key crops boosted (wheat, sunflower, canola, sugarcane) • Fiscal impact absorbed with relative ease due to foreign exchange inflow and re-appropriation of PSDP and ADP • Vulnerability of affected population has increased (53% of HHs reported 76-100% decline in household incomes) • Spike in flood-related food inflation for several months • Possibly increased persistence of food + overall inflation

  3. Priority Areas for Early Recovery • Regeneration of agricultural economy – Kharif crop and the next Rabi • Provision of shelter to the most vulnerable in the worst affected areas • Restoration of public sector infrastructure and services • Continued focus on the most vulnerable

  4. Purpose of Gap Analysis • Sector-wise and Theme-wise disaggregated data on ER needs, response so far, and Gaps • Financial data about ER needs and updated funding pledges and receipts • A Strategic Early Recovery Plan

  5. Principles for Prioritisation in Gap Identification • Relevance (Concentration on ER, excluding relief, longer term reconstruction and development) • Focus (Concentration on the most vulnerable sections of the affected population) • Capacity (Availability of Human and Physical resources nationally) • Timeliness (Possible for implementation before the end of 2011)

  6. Cost Comparison of Overall ER Needs and Prioritised Needs (US$)

  7. Cost Comparison of Overall ER Needs and Prioritised Needs (US$)

  8. Distribution of Prioritised ER Costs among Sectors (US$)

  9. Distribution of Prioritised ER Costs among Thematic Areas (US$)

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