Richard E Griffiths Astrophysics Division Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters

1. Wide-Field Surveys: the NASA Perspective Richard E Griffiths Astrophysics Division Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters Wide Field Surveys, STScI, June 14 2011

2. Space Wide-Field Surveys • Microwave • COBE (1989), WMAP (2001), Planck (ESA - 2009) • IR • IRAS 1983, WISE 2009 • UV • EUVE 1992 , GALEX 2003 • X-ray • UHURU 1970, Ariel V [UK – 1974], SAS-C 1975, HEAO-1 1977, ROSAT [FRG 1990] • Gamma-ray • COS-B [ESA-1975], CGRO 1991, Integral [ESA – 2002], Swift 2004, Fermi 2008 • Visible, NIR • ???

3. Post-Astro2010 What’s Changed and What’s the Same What’s changed: • JWST project was moved to its own Theme within the Science Mission Directorate • The Explorer program is being split into two pieces such that Astrophysics and Heliophysics will manage their own Explorers resources beginning in 2012 • A Future Astrophysics Explorer missions budget was created in response to the Decadal Survey recommendation to increase the flight rate of astrophysics missions and missions of opportunity. • Support for concept planning and technology development for decadal survey large mission priorities (WFIRST, LISA, IXO) under supporting research and technology lines • Augmented budgets for decadal survey medium &small technology and R&A initiatives • SOFIA budget increased to restore science and preserve 2nd generation instrument selection and development • NuSTAR LRD now February 2012 to accommodate launch services availability • ASTRO-H confirmed for implementation; GEMS approved for Phase B and budget re-phased • Extended support for top ranked missions in the 2010 Senior Review, but support for RXTE and GALEX extended operations and the INTEGRAL and Suzaku Guest Observer programs will terminate by the end of FY2011 • JDEM &SIM projects have been closed out; not recommended by the Decadal Survey • Reductions to operations and guest observer programs for Chandra, HST, and Swift What’s the same: • Herschel, Kepler, Fermi, and Keck operations

4. NWNH Decadal Recommended Space Activities (Notional Plan) $ in millions, does not include civil servant labor

5. Current Astrophysics Mission Portfolio

6. Projected portfolio by 2016 Projected portfolio by 2016 Pending confirmation (potential partnership; selection pending) Under review Likely one additional Explorer mission in development and another in formulation; possible international collaboration One additonal Explorer mission in formulation/development likely

7. A Brief History of Dark Energy Mission Studies 2001 DOE SNAP Proposal2005-07 NASA Mission Concept Studies - 3 selected 2005 Dark Energy Task Force (theory study)2007 BEPAC Recommendation - JDEM Highest Priority of Einstein Probes - search for partners2007-08 RFI + TMC reviews of Mission Concept Studies2007 Fall: Joint planning initiated with DOE, under guidance of OSTP2008 Nov. JDEM MoU signed by NASA/DOE2008 Figure-of-Merit Science Working Group (theory)2008-09 Science Coordination Group - Reference Mission defined2008 GSFC Project Office established2008 Pre-A.O. Announcement Oct 152008 NASA/ESA Bilateral meetings July 08, Jan 092009 Studies initiated to combine JDEM and Euclid into one mission 2009 Draft AO planned for Feb/Mar (cancelled)2010 ESA invites NASA to join Euclid as 20% partner2010 Astro-2010 does not endorse Euclid collaboration, proposes WFIRST – expansion of science goals. JDEM study terminated2010 WFIRST SDT formed 2011 WFIRST Design Reference Mission

8. WFIRST • The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is a NASA observatory designed to address essential questions in both exoplanet and dark energy research and to perform an IR survey of the sky. • Astro2010’s highest priority large space mission. • Update: • SDT members selected • SDT kickoff telecon on Jan 3, 2011 • 4 face-to-face meetings have been held • Subgroups have been formed on focused report topics and have met via telecons and f2f • Next Steps: • Delivery to NASA of ad-interim report due June 2011 • Next face-to-face meeting Oct Members of the Science Definition Team (SDT): J. Green, CU/CASA, Chair P. Schechter, MIT, Chair R. Bean, Cornell University C. Baltay, Yale C. Bennett, JHU D. Bennett, Univ. of Notre Dame R. Brown, STScI C. Conselice, Univ. of Nottingham M. Donahue, Michigan State University S. Gaudi, Ohio State University T. Lauer, NOAO B. Nichol, Univ. of Porthsmouth S. Perlmutter. Univ. of Berkeley/LBLN B. Rauscher, GSFC J. Rhodes, JPL T. Roellig, Ames D. Stern, JPL T. Sumi, Nagoya University A. Tanner, Georgia State University Y. Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma E. Wright, UCLA http://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov

9. The Budget Cycle

10. SMD Budget by Theme (RY $M)

11. CBO Deficit Analysis and Forecast ~$600-800 B/yr shortfall

12. NASA Science Budget Changes • Programmatic Content changes: • Earth Science DESDynI and CLARREO Tier-1 missions significantly delayed; GMI-2 development for GPM LIO cancelled; non-flight program expansions curtailed • Planetary funding can no longer support all 5 development programs; Decadal Survey will provide priorities to guide decision-making on which programs will be cancelled, delayed, descoped, or implemented as planned • Astrophysics able to fund the highest decadal priorities, but only technology development for large missions beyond JWST • JWST budget growth to $375M/year (including Labor); schedule under review • Heliophysics: launch vehicle cost increases may require descope of Solar Orbiter Collaboration

13. Science Program Budget Summary FY 2013-FY 2016 estimates are notional

14. NASA FY2012 Budget Request

15. Astrophysics Program Content • Amounts in $M; JWST is managed separately as its own Theme • FY 2010-2011 amounts include Civil Service Labor and Expenses (CSLE) • FY 2013-2016 estimates are notional • FY 2012-2016 amounts do not include CSLE

16. Research & Analysis Distribution (notional) ($ in thousands, does not include civil servant labor)

17. Supporting Research & Technology (notional) ($ in thousands, does not include civil servant labor)

18. Issues & Concerns • Future implementation of WFIRST, SPICA recommendations • LISA and IXO re-scope activities; LPF/ST-7 timeliness • Usage of advisory structure for future planning • JWST re-baseline • FY12 budget reduction ramifications (terminations: GALEX, Suzaku,…)

19. Next Senior Review in 2012 Astrophysics Missions (ESA, CSA) (JAXA) (ESA) (ASI, Denmark) (DLR) (ESA, UK, Netherlands) (ASI, CNES, UK) (DOE, Intl team) (JAXA) (ASI, UK) (South Korea) (ESA) (ESA) (ESA)

20. Backup

21. Recent / Upcoming Events • WISE decommissioned end/Feb • WFIRST SDT: Face-to-face meeting at JPL, 3/10-11. • April/May Explorers proposal science reviews • Apr 14/15 Herschel Science Team meeting • Apr 26 ExoPAG and COPAG Joint SAG meeting on UV/Vis telescope • May 1-6 NExScI /ExEP conference "Exploring Strange New Worlds: From Giant Planets to Super Earths" Flagstaff AZ • Astrophysics Archives Senior Review, 5/17-19 • Apr 27-29 Institute Visiting Committee • May 9-10 Spitzer Users Panel Meeting • Summer: SOFIA begins Early Science GO observations • Late Spring : SOFIA Instrument AO issued • June : WFIRST Preliminary report from SDT due • July 12-14 Chandra Science Workshop – Structure in Clusters and Groups of Galaxies • July 25-29 Sagan Summer Workshop, Exploring Exoplanets with Microlensing

22. Astrophysics Mission Events 2014 2015 CY 2011 2012 2013 Mission Launches etc. Feb Astro-H Apr GEMS Feb NuSTAR Jul LPF/ST-7 (TBD) Suborbital TBD TBD TBD TBD Dec TBDr TBDr Jan Mar Apr Apr Apr Jun Sep Sep Oct Oct TBD TBD TBD Rocket Program. X A C T 2 A C C E S S 4 E X O S 3 ACC E S S 3 XA CT 1 E X O S 4 X Q C 5 F I R E EX OS 2 PIC T U R E 1 I MAGER 1 F O R T I S 1 C I B E R 1-3 A C C E S S 1 X Q C 4 S L I C E M i c r o X A C C E S S 2 F O R T I S 2 FUSP 1 Balloon Campaigns (CREAM VI, BLAST, SPB Test) Antarctica D/J D/J D/J D/J Sweden (No astrophysics flights) M/J Ft. Sumner (spr) A/M A/M Palestine (TGF, GRAPE) J/J J/J J/J Ft. Sumner (fall) A/S A/S A/S Australia M/A M/A M/A (HERO) spring Opportunities Future AOs will depend upon the Agency response to the Astro2010 Decadal Survey SOFIA Instr AO Last Updated: February 7, 2011

24. Astrophysics Research Program

25. Accomplishments and Significant Events • Suzaku • Observatory in good health; JAXA plans to operate mission through launch of ASTRO-H • NASA GO’s may apply for support under ADAP in Cycle 6 and beyond • Suzaku observations of the Perseus Cluster have provided the clearest picture to date of the size, mass and chemical content, providing the first direct evidence that million-degree gas is clumped in the cluster's outskirts. • XMM • Observatory continues to operate well; Mission extension approved through December 2014 • NASA GO’s (Category A targets) eligible for support under GO Program; Category B target PI’s may apply to ADAP • Discovery of a “mature” galaxy cluster at z ~ 2 of roughly the mass expected for a progenitor to a modern cluster like Coma, with potential implications for the theory of cosmic structure formation • ASTRO-H • Work progressing on NASA hardware contribution (Soft X-ray Spectrometer and 2 Soft X-ray Telescopes) • NASA Critical Design Review scheduled for late June • Launch planned for February 2012 on H2A rocket from Kagoshima, Japan • NuSTAR • Instrument successfully integrated with Spacecraft at OSC • Observatory Integration and Test in progress; expected completion in late November • Launch scheduled for February 3, 2012 aboard a Pegasus LV from Kwajalein Atoll 25

26. Pending confirmation Under review

27. Pending confirmation Under review Likely one additional Explorer mission in development and another in formulation; possible international collaboration One additional Explorer mission in formulation/development likely

28. National Debt Outlook Deficit remains at Reagan peak … for the foreseeable future. Deficit Debt approaches WWII level (when defense was 42% of GDP) but will last much longer. Debt

29. Moreover … Note: Interest will have grown from 1.4% to 3.3% of GDP from 2011 to 2021. By 2021, we approach borrowing primarily to pay interest, which could instigate a debt spiral. “Tough” policies (e.g., let Bush tax cuts expire) would lead at best to stagnation; Borrowing remains high, crowding out private investment. Global investment could turn away from the United States.

30. FY10: Spending and Revenue Composition FY2010 Federal Budget expenditures: $3.5 T Total Revenues: $2.4 T

32. Astrophysics – Operating Missions Problems, working to resolve within planned margin On plan, adequate margin Problems, not enough margin to recover

33. Backup Slides

34. Astrophysics Program/Budget Strategy • Respond to decadal survey recommendations with augmentations to the Explorer program, Balloon program, Astrophysics research program, and technology development, but defer initiating the next large mission beyond JWST • Support missions in prime operations (Herschel, Planck, Fermi, Kepler, and HST) • Complete integration of NuSTAR for a Feb 2012 launch • SOFIA will continue to ramp up science flight hours to achieve full operating capability (FOC) by 2014 and will develop the second generation of instruments • Continue development/implementation of Astro-H for a Feb 2014 launch • Continue formulation and development of GEMS for an Apr 2014 launch • Use Senior Review recommendations to prioritize funding for missions in extended operations Innovate, Educate, Build “To reach new heights and reveal the unknown so that what we do and learn will benefit all humankind.”

35. What’s Changed and What’s the Same since Astro-2010 Decadal Review What’s changed: • JWST project was moved to its own Theme within the Science Mission Directorate • The Explorer program is being split into two pieces such that Astrophysics and Heliophysics will manage their own Explorers resources beginning in 2012 • A Future Astrophysics Explorer missions budget was created in response to the Decadal Survey recommendation to increase the flight rate of astrophysics missions and missions of opportunity. • Support for concept planning and technology development for decadal survey large mission priorities (WFIRST, LISA, IXO) under supporting research and technology lines • Augmented budgets for decadal survey medium &small technology and R&A initiatives • SOFIA budget increased to restore science and preserve 2nd generation instrument selection and development • NuSTAR LRD now February 2012 to accommodate launch services availability • ASTRO-H confirmed for implementation; GEMS approved for Phase B and budget re-phased • Extended support for top ranked missions in the 2010 Senior Review, but support for RXTE and GALEX extended operations and the INTEGRAL and Suzaku Guest Observer programs will terminate by the end of FY2011 • JDEM &SIM projects have been closed out; not recommended by the Decadal Survey • Reductions to operations and guest observer programs for Chandra, HST, and Swift What’s the same: • Herschel, Kepler, Fermi, and Keck operations

36. Astro2010 Decadal Survey Summary • New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey science themes well aligned to those of NASA’s Astrophysics Program: • Cosmic Dawn  Cosmic Origins • New Worlds  Exoplanet Exploration • Physics of the Universe  Physics of the Cosmos • The survey chose a budget scenario comprising constant FY10 dollars into the future, which is higher than NASA’s guidance and the projected Astrophysics budget • This was the first NRC decadal survey for NASA that included independent cost analysis of candidate mission concepts • The survey aimed for an integrated scientific program of space-based and ground-based observation and science. • Agency Response: • Support for mission concept planning and technology development relevant to the survey’s highest priority Large space mission: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). • A Future Astrophysics Explorer missions budget was created to increase the flight rate to achieve the recommended four missions and four missions of opportunity selected by the end of the decade. • Augmenting investments in core research and technology programs, including the suborbital program (sounding rockets and balloons), theory, laboratory astrophysics, etc.

37. Post-Astro2010 Astrophysics Program/Budget Strategy • Respond to decadal survey recommendations with augmentations to the Explorer program, Balloon program, Astrophysics research program, and technology development, but defer initiating the next large mission beyond JWST • Support missions in prime operations (Herschel, Planck, Fermi, Kepler, and HST) • Complete integration of NuSTAR (X-ray SMEX) for a Feb 2012 launch • SOFIA will continue to ramp up science flight hours to achieve full operating capability by 2014 and will develop the second generation of instruments • Continue development/implementation of Astro-H for a Feb 2014 launch • Continue formulation and development of GEMS for an Apr 2014 launch • Use Senior Review recommendations to prioritize funding for missions in extended operations

38. JDEM NIR Surveys NIR Imaging Surveys Redshift Surveys JDEM * * JDEM JDEM provides a comprehensive data set (100's TB) to world community for ancillary science with factor 100-1000 step forward in imaging & redshift surveys 38