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Richard Fisher Heliophysics Division NASA HQ

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  1. Richard Fisher Heliophysics Division NASA HQ NASA's Flight Missions, Present to 2020 Space Weather Workshop 30 April 2008

  2. NASA's programs provide a strategic "research arm" for our National Space Weather Program …and ~2-6$M invested/per mission for SW data support

  3. Heliophysics Objectives Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard Our Outward Journey Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

  4. The Strategic Triad of Heliophysics Programs • Theory • Models • Data

  5. The Strategic Triad of Heliophysics Programs • Theory • Models • Data Change over past five yrs: • LWS TR&T: ~90$M invested • Theory: ~3$M/year • SR&T: 10% increase • CCMC: significant investment toward model verification and other services • Data environment: VxO & resident archive investment nearing fruition

  6. EVA Abort Command Issued New Space Weather Forecasting Tool from Heliophysics Science Program Solar electrons reach the Earth-moon system about one hour before the solar proton radiation hazard arrives. New research has shown that electrons traveling at the speed of light are always present in solar particle eruptions. These electrons – traveling much faster than the hazardous solar energetic protons – follow the magnetic lines of force from the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, they can be used as a reliable early warning sign of hazardous radiation ahead.

  7. Electron Intensity Even in the case of the fastest-rising major proton event on record (Jan. 20, 2005), the electron precursor signal was detected 20-25 minutes in advance. EVA Abort Complete SOHO COSTEP: A one-hour warning has the potential to provide the advanced notice needed for efficient EVA planning. This is an important example of the potential for further rapid transition of SMD Research to SOMD/ESMD Operations – May 2007 to Feb 2008 – this new prediction tool has entered V&V by the JSC/SRAG for future Shuttle, ISS, and CEV operations. Slow Fast Electron Rise Parameter Empirical Forecasting Matrices Translate Solar Electron Data into +1h Proton Hazard Forecast (Posner, Space Weather, 2007)

  8. Current Fleet of Heliophysics Assets (including strategic partnerships with other national and international agencies) TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM White = deployed Yellow = in development

  9. ACE In addition to the prime objective of discovering the composition of the solar corona, solar wind, local interstellar medium (ISM), galactic matter, ACE represents: TWINS (2) • a "gold-standard" for L1 Space Weather monitoring • has resources to maintain ops beyond ~2024 • national effort required to maintain similar capability for the future C/NOFS AIM

  10. SoHO In addition to the prime objective of studying the Sun, from its deep core to the outer corona, and the solar wind: • a prime source of near-real time solar data for space weather prediction (although not quite 24-7 beacon mode) • intent is to maintain SW capabilities through the Bogart mode into the next decade TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

  11. STEREO In addition to the prime objective of understanding the fundamental nature and origin of coronal mass ejections: • near real-time SW beacon for images, in-situ particle and fields, and radio data • Important SW asset until spacecraft move beyond contact horizon • Research to Ops demonstration of importance of off-axis observations TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

  12. C/NOFS TWINS Caution: not NASA prime assets! • capability exists for real-time near-Earth space environment data • Opportunity for inter-agency cooperation for supply of new type of SW data and operational models? TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

  13. SDO In addition to the prime objective of understanding the how and why of the Sun's magnetic changes: • real-time, full resolution access to solar irradiance data and the source of that irradiance • anticipated to be important real-time SW asset to advance state-of-the-art predictions • Research to Ops challenge of high resolution spatial, temporal, & spectral information TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

  14. RBSP/MMS In addition to the prime objectives of these missions: • Intent is to deploy SW beacons on these missions if deemed feasible, economical, and beneficial. • Research to Ops challenge will be the adoption of a distributed sensor net coupled to large-scale data-assimilation space environment models.  TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

  15. Flight Mission Development to 2020