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NREL  1617 Cole Boulevard  Golden, Colorado 80401-3393  (303) 275-3000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute  Battelle  Bechtel. W in DS-H2 MODEL W ind D eployment S ystems H ydrogen Model.

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w in ds h2 model w ind d eployment s ystems h ydrogen model

NREL  1617 Cole Boulevard  Golden, Colorado 80401-3393  (303) 275-3000

Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute  Battelle  Bechtel

WinDS-H2 MODELWind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model

Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower

Walter Short

Nate Blair

September 9, 2003

presentation contents
Presentation Contents
  • Background
  • Representation of wind in WinDS
  • Representation of hydrogen in WinDS-H2
    • Questions that WinDS-H2 might answer
    • System configuration
    • Factors considered/Assumptions/Control strategy
  • Preliminary results
  • Conclusions
  • Additional Modeling Required
background status
  • Initial WinDS model did not include H2
    • Under development since 2002
    • First results for wind electricity only available in May 2003
  • WinDS-H2 development began in June 2003
    • Initial version does not consider sources of H2 other than wind
    • Have a few preliminary results today
    • Seeking your input on how to improve our current approach
winds model
WinDS Model
  • A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S
  • Designed to estimate market potential of wind energy in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios
winds is designed to address the principal market issues for wind
WinDS is Designed to Address the Principal Market Issues for Wind
  • Access to and cost of transmission
    • Class 4 close to the load or class 6 far away?
    • How much wind can be transmitted on existing lines?
    • Will wind penetrate the market if it must cover the cost of new transmission lines?
  • Intermittency
    • How does wind capacity credit change with penetration?
    • How do ancillary service requirements that increase non-linearly with market penetration impact wind viability
    • How much would dispersal of wind sites help?
winds addresses these issues through
WinDS Addresses These Issues Through:
  • Many wind supply and demand regions
  • Constraints on existing transmission available to wind
  • Explicit accounting for regulation and operating reserves, wind oversupply, and for wind capacity value as a function of the amount and dispersion of wind installations
  • Tracking individual wind installations by supply/demand region, wind class and transmission line vintage
general characteristics of winds
General Characteristics of WinDS
  • Linear program optimization (cost minimization) for each of 25 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050
  • Sixteen time slices in each year: 4 daily and 4 seasons
  • 4 levels of regions – wind supply/demand, power control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas
  • 4 wind classes (3-6), wind on existing AC lines and wind on new transmission lines
  • Other generation technologies – hydro, gas CT, gas CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil steam
wind intermittency in winds
Wind Intermittency in WinDS
  • Constraints
    • Capacity credit to reserve margin requirement
    • Operating reserve
    • Surplus wind
  • Probabilistic treatment
    • Explicitly accounts for correlation between wind sites
    • Updated values between periods
wind contribution to reserve margin
Wind Contribution to Reserve Margin
  • Uses LOLP to estimate the additional load (ELCC) that can be met by the next increment of wind
operating reserve constraint
Operating Reserve Constraint
  • Ensures adequate spinning reserve, quick-start capacity and interruptible load are available to meet normal requirements plus those imposed by wind
wind costs
Wind Costs
  • Cost and performance vary by wind class, and over time according to user inputs or with learning
    • PTC or ITC with start/stop dates, term, rate
    • Capital cost can increase with rough terrain
  • Price penalty on capital costs for rapid national and regional growth
  • Financing explicitly accounted for
  • Transmission costs –
    • Existing lines: $/kWh/mile or postage stamp
    • New lines: $/kW/mile; penalties for rough terrain and dense population

Conventional Technology Constraints

Planned Outages

Forced Outages

Reserve Margin

Operating reserve




hydroelectricity in winds
Hydroelectricity in WinDS
  • No capacity expansion allowed
  • Retirements – both scheduled and unscheduled
  • Generation constrained by water availability (set to average over last 5 years)
  • Dispatched as needed for peaking power
    • Not constrained by irrigation, recreation, environmental considerations, etc.
winds h2
  • Modified form of the WinDS model that includes the on-site use of wind generated electricity to produce H2 through electrolysis
  • Status:
    • Initial version under development
    • Selected preliminary results available today
    • Seeking your comments
questions winds h2 can help answer
Questions WinDS-H2 Can Help Answer
  • What is the market potential for H2 from wind – nationally? Regionally?
  • What improvements are required in electrolyzers, storage, fuel cells and H2 transport to make wind-H2 competitive?
  • Does the possibility of H2 production from wind increase the potential of wind power?
  • What will be the principal use of H2 from wind - H2 fuel or fuel-cell-firming of wind?
  • Will local H2-fuel demand spur much wind-H2?
wind h2 system configuration
Wind-H2 System Configuration

Transmission to Grid

Fuel cell

H2 Storage



H2-fuel transport

h2 factors considered by winds h2
H2 Factors Considered by WinDS-H2
  • H2 and fuel cells:
    • Fuel cells contribute 100% to reserve margin
    • Higher transmission line capacity factor
    • Fuel cells contribute 100% to operating reserves
    • Reduction in surplus wind
  • H2 transportation fuel production
    • Transportation cost
      • Local vs remote transportation fuel demand
major assumptions in winds h2
Major Assumptions in WinDS-H2
  • Only new wind farms have the option to produce H2, because:
    • Power purchase agreements
    • Wind turbine and power controls
    • Transmission requirements
  • There is a market for H2 fuel at a fixed price
    • Market size varies with region
  • Fuel cells used only to fill-in behind wind
control strategy summary
Control Strategy Summary
  • The fraction of each wind farm’s capacity dedicated to H2 production is the same from one year to the next
  • The fractions of H2 sent to the fuel cell and sold as fuel are the same from one year to the next for each wind farm
  • Size H2 storage for daily peak load use of H2 in fuel cell
  • Generate with the fuel cell only during daily peak load period to firm up the wind generation
  • Use fuel cell generation to provide operating reserve as required
  • Use electrolyzers to reduce/eliminate surplus wind generation
base case h2 inputs cont d
Base Case H2 Inputs (cont’d)
  • Price of H2 fuel = $2.50/kg
  • Maximum regional demand for H2 fuel =

5 million kg

preliminary conclusions
  • H2 can be modeled in the WinDS model
  • H2 from wind can be attractive at reasonable electrolyzer and fuel cell cost and performance
  • Wind market penetration may be increased if the cost and performance of the electrolysis-fuel cell cycle can be improved
additional modeling required
Additional Modeling Required
  • Refine existing WinDS-H2 model
  • Implement consensus suggestions from this workshop – both data and model
  • Include competitive sources of H2
    • Distributed electrolysis
    • Natural gas SMR
    • Biomass
    • Hydroelectricity