CRIME’S ECOSYSTEM. Marcus Felson School of Criminal Justice Rutgers University firstname.lastname@example.org DIMACS talk New Brunswick, May 21, 2007. Plan for today I talk fast. A. Orientation (five slides) B. Fundamentals of Crime Ecology (five sides)
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School of Criminal Justice
New Brunswick, May 21, 2007
A. Orientation (five slides)
B. Fundamentals of Crime Ecology (five sides)
C. Crime Foraging (ten slides)
D. General Theory of Crime Ecology (seven slides)
E. Baby Mathematics (we’ll see)
On five slides
a. I’m using ecological concepts broadly but literally
b. I imagine the“Life sciences” to be largerthan what you learned in school.
as you probably
as I see it
On five slides
To understand most crime, stop watching television
Murder isn’t a crime: It’s an outcome.
Nine slides sum up three dense chapters in my book,
CRIME AND NATURE
**But not long-term rewards or punishments!
Plenty of empirical verification
Occasional offenders to activate
Active offenders to become more efficient
Returning offenders to stop being so good
A lot of people commit a little crime.
This adds up.
A 400 page book in
Seven Teaser Slides
** My favorite – no time to go over now
Again – This fits larger ecology
Exchange resources: Drug buyer & drug seller
Stop mutual enemies: Gangs & drug dealers vs. police
Spread and reproduce: Entertainment newspaper that advertises prostitutes
Simple ideas, easily complicated
Note five open-air drug markets of varying sizes
They grew outwards, producing a thick crime habitat
One abandonment encourages another, and all encourage crime
Initial burglaries 1,000
Subtract cash burglaries -580
Non-cash burglaries 420
First sale of stolen goods 406
First purchase of stolen goods 406
Resale of stolen goods 365
Total crimes generated 2,177
CRIME MULTIPLIER =2.177
Disaggregate The Population Of Drug Abusers
T t = Total drug abuse population in year t
N t = New local drug abuse population in year t
Mt= Deaths of local drug abuse population in year t
Dt= Desisting local drug abuse population in year t
I t = In-migration of drug abusers to local area in year t
Ot= Out-migration of drug abusers from local area in year t
(a) T t = T t-1 + N t - M t - D t + I t - O t
(b) T t = (T t-1 + N t + I t) - (M t + D t + O t )
In other words, this year’s drug abuse population is augmented by three components and depleted by three other components.
Augmenting the drug-abuse population:
Last year’s surviving local drug abuse population,
New local abusers, and
In-migration of abusers to the local area from elsewhere.
Depleting the drug-abuse population:
Deaths of local drug abusers,
Desistence of local drug abusers, and
Out-migration of local drug abusers.