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Hurricane Forecast Model. Enron Email Corpus. LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans. Outline. History of ENRON Email Corpus Makeup and Generation Assumptions Graph construction Time-series analysis. BLUF. Divided the network into time periods
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Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt TabarLCDR William Evans
Outline • History of ENRON • Email Corpus • Makeup and Generation • Assumptions • Graph construction • Time-series analysis
BLUF • Divided the network into time periods • Examined the communication between 7 executives • Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways)
ENRON Brief History • 1932 - Northern Natural Gas Company, OK • 1979 - Reorganized as InterNorth • 1985 • Bought Houston Natural Gas • Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON • Lied, cheated, swindled • Sept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out • Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy
How bad was it? • ENRON – CalPERS venture • Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI • Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it • ENRON has a positive bottom line
Cast of Characters – The 7 • Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com Chairman, CEO • Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com Pres., COO, CEO • Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com CFO • Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAO • Greg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COO • Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFO • Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFO
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Lay Lay 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Fastow 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Fastow Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow McMahon Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow McMahon Bowen Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B
Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails
Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses
Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses 5,703 Unique internal addresses
Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses 5,703 Unique internal addresses 150 Employee’s email folders
Corpus Makeup Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT) From: pr <.palmer@enron.com> To: kenneth.lay@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT) From: karen.denne@enron.com To: j..kean@enron.com, pr <.palmer@enron.com>, mark.koenig@enron.com, jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT) From: john.sherriff@enron.com To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com, john.sherriff@enron.com Subject: Turkish industrialist NuriCoalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri?olakogluhas been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.
Assumptions • Strength of relationship based on email • Not all email is created equal • There are additional interesting people • Likely missing emails
Graph Construction Kaymal-2 Kaymal-1 Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal-2 Kaymal-1 Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml
Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann
Graph Construction 2001 Jan-Jun 2000 1999 2002 2001 Oct-Dec 2001 Jul-Sep
Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann
Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann
Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann
Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann