The Future of Transatlantic Relations Dr Fraser Cameron Director of Studies European Policy Centre, Brussels
EU and US- Friends or Rivals? • What Common Values and Interests? • Venus v Mars • US foreign policy (emphasis on terrorism, pre-emptive strikes, military, unilateral – “the international anarchist”) • Systemic or temporary change ? Would Gore have been different? Dean?
1949-1989 • Cold War glue held alliance together • Suez, France/NATO, Ostpolitik, Pershings, ‘chicken wars’ • German – European unification • 9 Nov 1989 : 11 September 2001
1990s • Bush Sr respected in Europe – Clinton unknown (but later loved in Europe) • Balkans – Land mines – UN finances • Role of Congress after 1994 (Gingrich) – impeachment • Somalia - Kosovo
EU-US Structures • 1990 Transatlantic Declaration • 1995 New Transatlantic Agenda (global and regional cooperation) • Annual summits, ministerials, Senior officials (SLG), Task Force, CFSP, JHA
George W Bush • Little support in Europe ‘The toxic Texan’ • Disputes over Kyoto, ICC, arms control, Middle East, UN, rogue states • Key advisers (Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Powell) little experience of today’s Europe • Congressional ignorance
Impact of 9/11 • Initially much sympathy in Europe “We are all Americans now” Le Monde • Measured response – overthrow of Taliban welcomed (but no NATO role) • And no return to multilateralism – “you are with us or against us” • Axis of evil ; doctrine of pre-emptive strikes
Impact of Iraq • Unfinished business after first Gulf War • Top of ‘neocons’ agenda (Wolfowitz), seized opportunity after 9/11 : Saddam-Osama bin Laden -WMD-terrorism • Rumsfeld ‘old v new Europe’ • Consequences – shift back to UN?
Trade relations • $ one billion a day in goods and services • More EU investment in Texas than US investment in Japan • US investment in Netherlands double US investment in Mexico • The two giants of the WTO • But disputes on GMOs, tax regimes, steel, agriculture, competition policy, etc
Common Values • Democracy, rule of law, free markets, but • Different social and economic models • Religion – huge differences ; plus death penalty, violence, health care, abortion • Growing public perceptions of these differences
Common Interests • Promoting democracy and free trade • Combating terrorism and WMD • Regional stability (Balkans, Middle East, North Korea, Africa, etc) • But UN? Multilateral approach? Arms control? Role of military?
Public Opinion • Latest polls (GMF) show rapidly declining support throughout Europe for US foreign policy • Public agreement on main threats but disagree on use of military (84-50) in general and on Iran in particular (73-44) • Most Americans support active overseas role – only 15% favour isolationism • Most Europeans (and Americans) favour stronger EU foreign and security policy role – but support drops from 70% to 50% if this would mean more spending on defence
The Future • Pax Americana? Balance of Power? Benevolent hegemon? • Impact of Iraq on US attitudes towards UN, nation building, role of military, allies • US and Europe : support united Europe or divide and rule? • Balkans – much agreement but ICC, SFOR, unfinished business (Kosovo), Stability Pact, Turkey
A New Partnership • Need to talk to and not past each other. ‘More Powell and less Rumsfeld’. Better summits. Involve EP and Congress more. • Shared threat assessments ; joint action eg Iran, N Korea, Middle East • WTO/Cancun – shared responsibility • New economic agenda – Open Skies, financial services, regulatory frameworks • EU has to get its act together on CFSP and improve military capabilities (Solana paper) • US has to recognise EU as best partner