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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 October 2010. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF\_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status

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southern hemisphere weather climate over major crops areas
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

18 October 2010

For Real-time information:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

outline
Outline
  • Highlights
  • ENSO Current Status
  • MJO Current Status
  • Monsoons Current Status
  • Southern Hemisphere Circulation
  • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
  • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
  • Forecast Verification
highlights
Highlights

Australia: Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall overspread eastern Australia during the previous week. A decrease in rainfall intensity is expected during the upcoming week.

Southern Africa:Light to moderate showers were observed across eastern coastal South Africa during the previous week. The GFS forecasts increased rains spreading northward into interior eastern South Africa during the upcoming week.

South America: Scattered showers and thunderstorms dotted central Brazil during the previous week, with a large increase in coverage and amounts forecasted during the upcoming week. Near average rainfall is expected across northern and central Argentina.

enso current status
ENSO Current Status
  • General Summary:
  • La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific.
  • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean.
  • La Niña is expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

During the last 4-weeks (19 Sep – 16 Oct 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average east of the International Date Line.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

mjo current status
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

  • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
  • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
  • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
  • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
  • Line colors distinguish different months

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts

dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members

Green Line – Ensemble Mean

MJO Current Status

The MJO signal continued to propagate eastward during the previous week, but weakened as it entered the equatorial Pacific.

The GEFS forecast indicates continued weakening of the MJO signal during the upcoming week, with no further eastward propagation of the signal.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

southern hemisphere monsoons current status
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status

South America

Southern Africa

Australia

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Monsoon Season: NOV-APR

Monsoon Season: NOV-APR

Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR

As the dry season neared its end during the previous three weeks, increasing rainfall deficits were observed across much of South Africa and southern Mozambique.

Generally below average precipitation was observed across South America, particularly in the central Amazon basin, where the rainy season signal was weak. Three-month precipitation across Argentina remained near average in most locations.

Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across much of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

southern hemisphere circulation
200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 daysSouthern Hemisphere Circulation

C

C

C

A

Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.

Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  • During 9 – 15 Oct 2010, a strong cyclonic circulation anomaly was observed in the upper troposphere east of Australia. A weaker cyclonic circulation anomaly was observed for a second week to the west of South America.
  • At the lower levels of the atmosphere, below-average temperatures were observed across Australia’s interior.
southern hemisphere circulation8
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 daysSouthern Hemisphere Circulation

Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.

Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.

CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

  • During 9 – 15 October, areas of rising motion (negative omega) were observed across northern and eastern Australia, northern Argentina, and southeastern Africa. These areas were associated with unsettled weather.
australia
Australia
  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns
  • Temperature Patterns
  • GFS Forecast
slide10
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 7 days, widespread anomalous rainfall overspread much of Australia, with heavy rain observed in the southeastern wheat belt region. In contrast, dry weather continued across Western Australia’s wheat belt region.

slide11
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the previous 15 days, above average rainfall was observed throughout much of Australia, including wheat areas of eastern Australia.

slide12
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the previous 30 days, generally above average rainfall was observed across the southern and eastern wheat belt regions, while rainfall deficits greater than 15mm were observed across southwestern Australia.

recent evolution rainfall last 30 days
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
  • 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the recent dryness across the southern tier of Australia, with recent rainfall easing the deficits. Well below-average rainfall continued unabated across Western Australia (bottom left panel).
temperature c based on gts stations no qc
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly

  • Near-average temperatures were observed across Australia’s agricultural areas.
slide15
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly

For Days 1-7 (18 – 24 Oct 2010), decreased rainfall is expected across the Australian wheat belt, with near average accumulations.

slide16
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly

For Days 8-14 (25 – 31 Oct 2010), a return to widespread rainfall is forecast for eastern Australia’s croplands. Drier weather is expected across Western Australia and South Australia.

forecast verification australia
Forecast from 4 Oct 2010

Valid 11 – 17 Oct 2010

Forecast from 11 Oct 2010

Valid 11 – 17 Oct 2010

Observed

11 – 17 Oct 2010

Total

Total

Total

Anomaly

Anomaly

Anomaly

Forecast Verification: Australia
southern africa
Southern Africa
  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns
  • Temperature Patterns
  • GFS Forecast
slide19
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • During the last 7 days, light to moderate rainfall overspread southern portions of South Africa and Zimbabwe.
slide20
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 15 days, areas of below-average rainfall persisted across the South African maize triangle region (eastern interior).

slide21
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 30 days, generally below-average rainfall was observed across southern Africa’s agricultural areas.

recent evolution rainfall last 30 days22
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
  • 30-day rainfall time series depict the delayed end to the dry season across southern Africa, with deficits easing recently across most areas as rainfall began.
temperature c based on gts stations no qc23
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly

Above-average temperatures were observed across eastern croplands of southern Africa for a third week, while below-average temperatures overspread western areas.

slide24
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly

For Days 1-7 (18 – 24 Oct 2010), light to moderate rainfall is expected across eastern South Africa during the upcoming week.

slide25
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly

For Days 8-14 (25 – 31 Oct 2010) rainfall is forecast to intensify across eastern South Africa.

forecast verification southern africa
Forecast from 27 Sep 2010

Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010

Forecast from 4 Oct 2010

Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010

Observed

4 – 10 Oct 2010

Total

Total

Total

Anomaly

Anomaly

Anomaly

Forecast Verification: Southern Africa
brazil argentina
Brazil & Argentina
  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns
  • Temperature Patterns
  • First Freeze in southern Argentina
  • GFS Forecast
slide28
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms overspread much of central and southern Brazil during the previous week. While the rainfall was the first significant accumulation of the rainy season, it fell in a hit-or-miss fashion.
  • An area of locally heavy rainfall was observed in southern Cordoba during the previous week, with lighter accumulations across northeastern Argentina.

Brazil

Argentina

slide29
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • The rainy season began across much of Brazil, though two week accumulations remain below average across most locations.
  • Near to below average rainfall was observed across Argentina’s key croplands during the previous 15 days.

Brazil

Argentina

slide30
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly

  • Outside portions of southeastern Brazil, generally below average rainfall accumulations were observed as the start of the rainy season was delayed in central Brazil.
  • Above average rainfall was observed across central Argentina, while below average rains fell in the east.

Brazil

Argentina

recent evolution rainfall last 30 days31
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
  • Below-average rainfall continued across central Brazil with increasing showers in the past two weeks, while near average rainfall fell in the south. Drier weather recently was observed in northern Argentina.
temperature c brazil based on gts stations no qc
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly

Pre monsoon heat continued across much of northern and central Brazil in areas without steady rainfall.

temperature c argentina based on gts stations no qc
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)

Extreme Minimum

Extreme Maximum

Mean

Anomaly

Near average temperatures continued across most of Argentina, with no widespread freezes observed in primary wheat growing areas for a third week.

slide34
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly

  • For Days 1-7 (18 – 24 Oct 2010), widespread heavy rainfall is forecast across central Brazil, with drier weather forecast across Rio Grande do Sul and eastern Argentina. Light to moderate rainfall is forecast across central Argentina.
slide35
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 18 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly

  • For Days 8-14 (25 – 31 Oct 2010), widespread anomalous heavy rainfall is expected across north-central Brazil, with below average rainfall forecast across Brazil’s southern half. Near average rainfall is forecast across Argentina.
forecast verification south america
Forecast from 4 Oct 2010

Valid 11 – 17 Oct 2010

Forecast from 11 Oct 2010

Valid 11 – 17 Oct 2010

Observed

11 – 17 Oct 2010

Total

Total

Total

Anomaly

Anomaly

Anomaly

Forecast Verification: South America
slide37
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles

Crop Calendars by Month

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars

USDA Crop Information

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