slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 14

Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 483 Views
  • Uploaded on

Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East. www.tomuphoto.com/gallery/ Landscapes/rift_valley. What is Rift Valley Fever?. Febrile disease that affects sheep, cattle, goats, humans, primates, camels Vector:

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East' - Roberta


Download Now An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Field Project 3:

Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East

www.tomuphoto.com/gallery/ Landscapes/rift_valley

what is rift valley fever
What is Rift Valley Fever?
  • Febrile disease that affects sheep, cattle, goats, humans, primates, camels
  • Vector:
  • Most human cases are mild and involve: fever, myaglia, vomiting, diarrhea, and/or hepatitis
  • Can become severe in small # of human cases:
    • Eye disease: 0.5-2%
    • Meningoencephalitis <1%
    • Hemorrhagic fever <1%

Aedes (Neomelaniconion) and Aedes (Stegomyia), Culex, Mansonia, Anopheles and Eretmapodites, have all been shown to transmit the virus.

Photo: news.bbc.co.uk/.../ newsid_934000/934032.stm

rvf epizootics
RVF Epizootics
  • Humans infected from:
    • Mosquitoes
    • Contact with blood/body fluids/organs of infected animals
  • First isolated in 1930 among sheep on a farm in the Rift Valley of Kenya
  • Recent Outbreaks
    • Egypt 1993, 1997
    • Kenya, Somalia 1997-98
  • First cases outside African Continent not until 2000 in Saudi Arabia & Yemen
economic impacts of rvf
Economic Impacts of RVF

x

Pastoralists in the Horn of Africa

Markets in the Arabian Peninsula

BOYCOTT

Photos, clockwise from top left:

www.uni-mainz.de, www.asergeev.com, www.fao.org

Sheep infected with RVF

rvf management group decision problem
RVF Management: Group Decision Problem
  • Monitoring and forecasting system depends on cooperation between producers and consumers
  • If benefits of monitoring/forecasting are not spread across each group, essential players may not want to participate
  • Groups span across production, export, consumption, continents, religions, nationalities, and ethnicities.
how to overcome trade constraints
How to overcome trade constraints?

Development of a model that could:

  • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential
  • Identify periods of high risk of RVF
  • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified
  • Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels
developing a monitoring forecasting system
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System
  • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential
    • Using historical data from Kenya, assemble a set of environmental layers to identify the areas where RVF is enzootic with epizootic potential
    • Apply them to the entire Horn of Africa & Middle East

(Completed)

(In progress)

developing a monitoring forecasting system8
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System
  • Identify periods of high risk of RVF (almost completed)
  • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified
    • Identify threshold values of rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, & inundation associated with historical outbreaks
    • Assess ability to predict exceedance of these thresholds at different times using global climate models

(In progress)

(In progress)

developing a monitoring forecasting system9
Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System

4.Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels

  • Barriers to group cooperation must be identified, understood, and addressed in development of the system if cooperation is important
  • It may be necessary to design group cooperation mechanisms into reporting components of the monitoring and forecasting system
reputation and vulnerability
Reputation and Vulnerability
  • Reporting information on RVF outbreaks may hurt a producer’s credibility and reputation
  • A reputation of being a producer with high risk for RVF may make a vulnerable producer more vulnerable
  • Are there ways to address these problems?
rvf decision making
RVF & DecisionMaking

Potential areas to explore:

  • Incentives for voluntary monitoring
  • Sharing risk through sales contracts
  • Compensation schemes producers who provide sensitive information
  • Designing systems that take advantage of inter/intra group credibility effects
  • Incentives for vaccination of animals
  • Temporary restriction of trade from affected areas
mechanism design
Mechanism Design
  • Buyers in Middle East could compensate pastoralists for reporting sick sheep, making monitoring and auditing costs less prohibitive

Questions:

  • Would buyers blacklist pastoralists because they shared information about the presence of the virus, can a contract be designed to overcome this?
  • Do pastoralists report differently: as individuals, as groups, across ethnic groups?
groups and contract design
Groups and Contract Design
  • When making contracts, does the cost of revealing private information differ between individuals and groups?
    • We will build on existing research by developing tools to explore:
  • What constitutes a group and what are the premiums that group dynamics bring?
    • Experimental game in lab (Summer 2005) & possibly at conference in the field
slide14

QUESTIONS?

Photo: www.freshtracks.ca/group_incentive.shtml