Solving the ‘Spectrum Crisis’: Paths to Bandwidth Abundance

1. Solving the ‘Spectrum Crisis’: Paths to Bandwidth Abundance Open Spectrum and White Spaces Technologies ICTP – University of Trieste, Italy March 12, 2014 Michael Calabrese Director, Wireless Future Program Open Technology Institute New America Foundation calabrese@newamerica.net

2. Public Interest Spectrum Coalition Unlicensed Access to Vacant TV Channels was first advocated in the U.S. by NGOs to facilitate: • Wireless broadband for rural and unserved areas: Economic development is increasingly linked to broadband access • More robust Wi-Fi networks as both a complement (offload) and alternative (competition) to licensed carrier networks The U.S. NGO White Space Coalition included: • Consumer Federation of America • Consumers Union • Leadership Conference on Civil Rights • EDUCAUSE (University CTOs) • National Hispanic Media Coalition • Free Press • Public Knowledge • New America Foundation • Native Public Media . . . (and other groups)

3. The Untethered User: Internet Everywhere • Ericsson: Mobile data traffic will grow 12X over next 5 years (2018) • Cisco VNI: Projects continued mobile data compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66% for 2012 - 2017 • FCC: “The broadband spectrum deficit is likely to approach 300 MHz by 2014” • Mobile broadband take-up could double: • 50% smartphone adoption (US/UK) • 20% households own a tablet (US/UK)

4. Conventional Wisdom: Spectrum is Scarce

5. Reality: Government Licenses are Scarce

6. Reality: Spectrum Bandwidth is Abundant (80% not in use < 3 GHz)

7. The Great Disconnect:Scarcity Amidst Abundance Two Parallel Paths to Bandwidth Abundance: • Short Run: Wi-Fi Offload on Unlicensed Bands • Longer Run: ‘Use it or Share it’ – Dynamic Spectrum Access to underutilized bands (both licensed and Government spectrum)

8. “Spectrum Crisis”? Why Mobile Carriers Can’t Meet Demand • Running out of spectrum for exclusive licensing • All prime spectrum is assigned • Takes too long and too expensive to clear for auction • Cell site bottleneck limits spectrum re-use • Cell sites increasing < 15% / year • Mobile data demand increasing > 60% / year • Mobile market competition • More competing carriers requires more total spectrum • Unwillingness to invest where returns are positive but bring down average ARPU/ROI (rural areas)

9. Wi-Fi to the Rescue: Offloads Surging Mobile Device Traffic Wi-Fi offload > 50% of total mobile data in U.S. -- more in Europe Observed and Projected Mobile Data Offload (EC Study, 8/13) Cumulative UK, Germany, France, Italy

10. Nomadic is the New Mobile • The difference between wireline and wireless is blurring . . . • Critical to distinguish two types of “mobile”: • Trulymobile (on the go) • Nomadic(home, work, café, outdoors near a wire)

11. “Relatively little smartphone data usage is truly mobile.” – European Commission study (Aug. 2013)Mobile device use by location: Two-thirds at home or work (15% on the go)

12. Nomadic Apps Drive Demand • Video is driving mobile device traffic – a majority now (Verizon) and two-thirds by 2016 (Cisco) • > 85% is watched indoors – and even more near a wired LAN • Already surveys show 80% of consumers prefer to connect via Wi-Fi (cheaper, faster, easier, more reliable)

13. Preferred Network Access: Wi-Fi or Cellular?

14. Wi-Fi is a Windfall for Mobile Carriers as Well • Consumer Federation of America Study: > $20B savings per year • European Commission: For EU-27, $35B Euros now, $200B/year by 2016

15. Scarcity to Abundance:Small Cells and Open Spectrum • As high-capacity wireline networks become ubiquitous, mobile devices can transmit data short distances, at low power, over shared spectrum, and into less traffic-sensitive wired networks – replacing the “spectrum crunch” with bandwidth abundance. • Wireline ISPs recognize this . . . They are provisioning dense Wi-Fi hotspot networks and lobbying for more unlicensed spectrum.

16. Carrier-Provisioned Wi-Fi Networks Blanketing Urban Areas Worldwide • BT Wi-Fi > 5 million hotspots in UK • 500,000 in London • 7 sq. mile WMAN central London • Part of FON Consortium’s > 8 million hotspots • Free Mobile (France) > 4 million hotspots • Built on wireline subs of parent, Iliad • China Mobile > 2 million • Projecting 70% offload rates • U.S. Cable Consortium (5 companies) • 200,000 hotspots (mostly outdoors/urban) • Comcast: Adopting FON model ~ potential 20 million hotspots

17. Needed: More Open Spectrum for Community Networking and Rural Areas

18. Location, Location, Location!TV Band Spectrum (< 1 GHz) is uniquely valuable:- Larger Coverage Areas- Lower Infrastructure Costs- Better In-Building Penetration

19. Unlicensed Spectrum Enables Small Business WISPs to Serve Rural and Other Unserved Areas WISPs in the U.S. • Approx 2,000 • Serve approx. 3 million people in rural, small town, unserved areas • Most are small, local businesses • Often the only local ISP • TVWS allows WISPs to expand coverage of unserved areas at affordable prices

20. TVWS: Cost-Effective Community Networks Targeting Unserved Rural Areas In a rural, forested and rugged Maryland County, wireless backhaul from distant State fiber to TVWS base station hubs . . . . . . will connect 3,000 unserved homes and businesses to > 3 mbps Wi-Fi service for $30/month.

21. AIR.U: University of West Virginia University W. Virginia Personal Rapid Transit System TV White Space Network Blankets University tram system with Wi-Fi Connectivity • White Space Network Extends Public Wi-Fi Internet Access (Fixed & Mobile) • 15,000 Student/Faculty Commuters per day • 3.5 miles of track – 5 station platforms PRT route identified in orange

22. What’s Next for White space and DSA?M2M: Sensor Networks, Smart Home, Mobile Payments

23. What’s Next for White Space? • Text • subtext

24. What’s Next for White Space and DSA? • Text • subtext

25. Extending the Wi-Fi Model: Use it or Share it • U.S. National Broadband Plan (2010): “The FCC should spur further development and deployment of opportunistic uses across more radio spectrum.” (p. 95) • Licenses are for exclusive use … not non-use. • Under Communications Act, unused capacity remains available to the public. • Proposal: Identify and open the most underutilized and useful bands for opportunistic sharing on a secondary basis . . . • . . . Subject to band-by-band conditions protecting incumbent uses from interference: • Transmit power limits • Geographic exclusion zones • Coordination with geolocation database (“connected devices”) • Sensing/DFS • Remote preemption/updating/disabling (“policy radios”)

26. PCAST: Overarching Recommendations • President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology (PCAST) advised President Obama to: • Issue an Executive Order stating the USG policy is to share underutilized Federal spectrum (issued June 2013) • Identify 1,000 MHz of Federal spectrum for sharing with the private sector, starting with the 3550-3700 MHz band (FCC rulemaking opened Dec. 2012) • Create shared-use Spectrum Superhighways: • 3 tiers of access to Underused Federal Bands • Expand on TVDB to develop a Spectrum Access Systemto enforce band-by-band “rules of the road” (interference protections) • Emphasize small cell, low-power, spectrum re-use

27. PCAST: 3-Tier Hierarchy of Access

28. Spectrum-sensing Input(s) Frequency Query Registered Base Station Available Frequency List Secure DSA Geo-location Database Secure band-by-band Database Input(s) Spectrum Access System Dynamic Spectrum Access

29. Advantages of Building on the TV Bands Database • No permanent assignments, no stranded users • Any band or channel can be listed for access – then de-listed • Access to additional bands can be subject to unique access/operating conditions (e.g., TTLs: time-to-live) • Preemption, shut down and priority access can protect primary operations • Any ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ can be avoided • A ceiling on the noise floor: At any time/place, access can be limited or rationed via micro-payments • Devices can sense and share data on spectrum environment (improving QoS) • Dynamic Device Management: SAS can help manage cooperative sharing (e.g., variable power)

30. PCAST: Shared Use Spectrum SuperhighwayNTIA ‘Fast Track’ Bands: 12 bands identified and prioritized, 950 MHz of which is contiguous (2700 to 3650 MHz)Source: NTIA, “Second Interim Progress Report on the Ten-Year Plan and Timetable,” October 17, 2011

31. What’s Next for White Space3.5 GHz NPRM: “Citizens Broadband Service” FCC’s Notice of Proposed Rule Making: • FCC: “Modeled on the spectrum access framework proposed in the PCAST Report.” • “Three-tiered licensing/interference protection framework”: • Incumbent Access(Federal primaries) • Priority Access(50 mhz licensed by rule for “mission critical” indoor use) • General Authorized Access (opportunistic, but must register in SAS) • “An SAS incorporating a dynamic database and, potentially, other mitigation techniques . . . Modeled after TVWS database” • Priority Access and GAA would be low power, small cell • Exception: Higher GAA power in non-congested areas (akin to 3650)

32. What’s Next for White Space Extending 5 GHz Unlicensed FCC’s Notice of Proposed Rule Making: • Spectrum Act of 2012 required an FCC proceeding on unlicensed use of an additional 195 MHz by Feb. 2013 • Outdoor devices now permitted in 455 MHz (subject to DFS): • Proposed: 775 MHz contiguous, for indoor and outdoor use – to support wide-channel, high-capacity 802.11ac standard

33. THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? Contact: Michael Calabrese Open Technology Institute New America Foundation calabrese@newamerica.net