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What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies?

What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies?

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What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies?

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  1. What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies? John German American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Advanced Powertrain Forum August 5, 2005

  2. 3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Climate Change Urban Air Quality

  3. Transportation’s Social Issues Key Issues Energy Sustainability Social Concerns Climate Change Air Pollution

  4. Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market Popular mass-market models with continual efficiency improvement Highest CAFE of major OEMs

  5. Honda’s Environmental Leadership 1975Civic CVCC1st to meet ’70’s Clean Air Act, without a catalyst 1986Civic CRX-HF1st to top 50-mpg mark 1990VTEC engine introduced Seemingly-incompatibleachievement of -- 1. Strong performance2. Low emissions3. High fuel economy

  6. Honda’s Power Train Roadmap FCV Hydrogen fueled FCV Alternative Fuel Vehicle + Improvement of ICE Efficiency / CO2 Reduction I. C. Engine Technologies Accord I M A Civic IMA I M A Integrated Motor Assist CNG INSIGHT i-DSI C V T i-VTEC VTEC-E 1990 2000 2010 2020

  7. Future Building Blocks • Working with Government • Understanding Fleet Customers • Infrastructure Challenges • Gaseous Fuel know-how CLEAN GASOLINE PURE ELECTRIC CNG • Future Building Blocks • EV know-how • Infrastructure Issues • Home Refueling • Customer Habits Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future • Future Building Block • LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership • Infrastructure is perfect • Reasonable cost • Catalyst technology

  8. Combines CNG with BEV attributes: • Home Refueling • As Clean as a BEV • Lower Cost potential • Future Building Block: • Potential Infrastructure Solution • Gaseous Fuel know-how GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS HOME REFUELED AFV PURE ELECTRIC CNG CLEAN GASOLINE • Combines BEV with ULEV • Infrastructure is perfect • Cost is affordable • Good Customer Acceptance • Future Building Block: • Electric Energy Mgmt & Safety... Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future

  9. CNG HOME REFUELED AFV GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS CLEAN GASOLINE PURE ELECTRIC FUEL CELL VEHICLES Honda’s Future Dream • Built on Core Honda Technologies: • EV and HEV vehicle know-how • Gaseous Fuel know-how • Catalyst know-how • Infrastructure innovation • Technology innovation (Ultra-Cap)

  10. Conventional Technology

  11. Honda VTEC Combustion: (Variable valve Timing and lift, Electronically Controlled) • HIGHER EFFICIENCY • LOWER EMISSIONS • GREATER PERFORMANCE Application % 50% ‘91 ‘95 ‘03

  12. Variable Cylinder Management Accel 6 Cylinder operation Cruise 3 Cylinder operation Decel Vehicle speed

  13. Honda Announced Improvements • 2006 Civic VTEC • Delays intake valve closure timing during cruising and other low-load conditions • Throttle-by-wire used for larger throttle opening and a major reduction in pumping loss • Switches valve timing for excellent acceleration • Advanced VTEC • Continuously variable intake valve timing and lift • + 13% efficiency (vs. 2005 i-VTEC engine • Advanced VCM • Increased flexibility to expand range of driving conditions • Improved active control engine mounts • + 11% efficiency (vs. 2005 Honda V-6 engine)

  14. Transmission Advances Computer controls are enabling a variety of improved transmission designs • Dual-clutch automated manual • Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper • But launch concerns (no torque converter), huge investment • Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) • Excellent city efficiency and extremely smooth • Can deliver steady-state engine speeds to facilitate HCCI • But torque limited, highway efficiency lower (belt friction), huge investment • Improved shift points and lock-up strategies • Low investment • Lapillier 6-speed automatic Not yet clear which is most cost-effective – all may co-exist

  15. Engine technology High specific output (including 4 valve/cylinder) Variable valve timing/lift Cylinder deactivation Direct injection Precise air/fuel metering Transmission efficiency 5/6 speed-AT/6-speed MT CVT Dual-clutch automated MT Reduced losses Lightweight materials Low drag coefficient Low resistance tires Lower accessory losses Incremental FE Technology • Cost and value issue • These technologies are continuously being incorporated into vehicles. • However, consumers value other attributes more highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and luxury. • Putting in technologies just to improve fuel economy may not be valued by customers. Fuel Economy Improvement - ??? Depends on how much is already incorporated into fleet and synergies (or lack of synergy) between technologies

  16. Worldwide Fuel Control • On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable many technologies • Growing countries, such as India and China, need to improve fuel quality • Sulfur • Heavy metals • Aromatics • Deposit additives • etc

  17. Diesels

  18. Comparison Between U.S. & Europe Correlation with fuel price: R2=0.61 Source: US Department of Energy Report, October 2003; Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, April 2003 Note: All data valid through December 2002 Diesel emission standards less stringent than gasoline in Europe

  19. Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency But hybrids get better fuel economy in city driving Diesels are currently cheaper than hybrids, but are not cheap $1500 for 4-cyl., $2000-$3000 for V-8 Tier 2 emission standards will add significant cost Less convenient service stations (only ~ 20% carry diesel) Will take time for public to recognize improvements in noise, vibration, smell, starting, and emissions Plus pickup customers want a “tough” diesel, not a wimpy quiet one Must compete with improved gasoline engines and hybrids Europe refineries already shipping unwanted gasoline to US With continued fleet turnover to diesel in Europe, who will buy gasoline if US also shifts to diesels? Diesel Market Potential in US

  20. Hybrids

  21. Hybrid Vehicles Civic Hybrid Electric Motor CVT Efficient hybrid engine Intelligent Power Unit (IPU)

  22. Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid Parallel - Type Motor / Generator • Relatively Simple, Lightweight & Compact • Efficient in City and Highway driving Engine Transmission Inverter Battery

  23. Honda HEV Technology Evolution 1999 2002 2004 "World Best Efficiency” High volume compact car Performance + efficiency • Fuel Economy No.1 • First optional hybrid powertrain • First V6 hybrid • Hybrid vehicle for personal use • Mainstream compact • Mainstream midsize • 255 horsepower –better than V6 • i-DSI + IMA system • VTEC + IMA system • Innovative Sedan Package • City 29, hwy 37 mpg (same as Civic class) • Light aluminum body • World best aerodynamic design

  24. V6 3.0L i-VTEC VCM Engine (Variable Cylinder Management) • IMA Motor • DC brushless • New IPM Motor • Resolver sensor Compact 5AT Long torsion, LC response UP torque converter Powerplant • Parallel-Type Hybrid System • Simple, Lightweight & Compact • Efficient in City and Highway driving

  25. Engine and Motor Output Characteristics CIVIC HYBRID High Efficiency, High Torque Electric Motor (1.3L Engine only)

  26. Attractive Hybrid Features Integrated Electric Motor Fuel Savings! Low Operating Cost: Best “Idle” Quality: Superior Driving Range: Pride of Ownership: Beats any Luxury Car! Fewer Trips to the Station! Social Benefits!

  27. Alternative Fuels

  28. Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology Compact Cars - CO2 Comparisons“Wellhead-to-Wheel” Civic GX Values • Range > 200 miles • CO2 reduction > 20% • Performance = Gasoline • Near-Zero Emissions • Proven Honda DQR • Satisfied customers -25% 400 353 -11% 306 300 264 CO2 emission 236 200 100 0 Civic Hybrid Civic Gasoline Jetta Diesel Civic CNG

  29. Infrastructure Innovations NGVs Fleet & Consumer Buses, Heavy Duty Public Fast Fill Infrastructure Network Fleet Forklifts Home Refueling Private Fleet Refueling

  30. Development History of Honda FC Stack ‘80s ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 FCX-V2 FCX-V3 Evolves to the next generation Improved performance and reliability 2001 Next-generation Honda FC Stack released 1999 Start of R&D on fuel cell basic technology Compact Excellent performance Superb durability High-pressure hydrogen tank on a pure hydrogen-fueledFCX-V3 Methanol-reforming fueled fuel cell stack on FCX-V2 Series of public road tests as part of CaFCP 2005 model launch

  31. Output density of Honda FC stack Compact High output

  32. FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04 in New York Japan testing started fall 03 First delivery to an individual customer in July 2005 Environmental adaptability Low/high temperature Fuel efficiency Performance Improved acceleration performance Improved energy efficiency

  33. ~ ~ ~ ~ Home Energy Station Heat Fuel cell ~ Electricity Inverter Natural gas Reform Refine Hydrogen Storage tank Compress Reformated Gas Home Refueling with Co-generation Cooperative development with Plug Power

  34. Advantages: Very high fuel conversion efficiencies Greatly reduced heat loss Virtually zero emissions Quiet Reliable and long lifetime Low maintenance Wide range of applications in addition to vehicles Challenges Packaging, size, weight Cost Waste heat rejection Air supply Compressor Cold temperature operation On-board hydrogen storage Hydrogen infrastructure Fuel Cells: The Holy Grail

  35. System Comparison

  36. Comparison of CO2 Emissions JAPAN 10-15 mode Tank to Wheels Well to Tank FE base in 2010 16km/L (1250kg) 20km/L CIVIC (VTEC-E) 23km/L FIT (i-DSI) Improvement of Gasoline Vehicle Oil Base 29km/L CIVIC IMA Diesel Engine Gasoline Reform. FCV CIVIC CNG Natural Gas Base Methanol Reform. FCV 0 Renewable Energy Hydrogen FCV 0 50 100 150 CO2 emissions [g/km] Honda’s Estimate

  37. Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies Social Demand Customer Demand Package Technology Infra- Efficiency Tailpipe Alt. Fuel Cost (Volume, Wt., features) structure Emissions (CO2) ○ △ × ◎ ◎ ◎ Gasoline Gasoline ○ ○ × ○ △ ◎ Hybrid ○ △ ○ × ◎ ○ Diesel (range) ○ w/ home refueling (tank) △ ○ ◎ ○ ○ △ △ - Nat Gas (inc. range) ◎ ◎ ◎ × × × H2 Fuel Cell ◎ ○ △ × : Excellent : Good : Marginal :No contribution or not acceptable

  38. Soft, magnetic material Condenser High strength material Magnet Improved electrode New Current Collector Reduce internal resistance U-shape, 12-cell series module Silicon Steel Development History of Honda Hybrids 00 Insight 03 Civic IMA 05 Accord IMA 06 Civic IMA High density coil windings High-performance magnets 15 kW, same size Internal magnet + resolver pickup, 12kW also asymmetric windings + 30 % torque 60 mm thick, 10kW Battery output power increased 30% 158v Improved cooling Volume –10%, weight –17% Power + 20% NiMH, 144v, 35 kg Volume –30%, weight –6% Inverter integrated with motor ECU Integrated cooling –32% weight, -20% size. Also more efficient inverter Integrated inverter, condenser, heat sink: –13% weight, -57% size Air cooled

  39. Hybrid Synergies • More efficient electric pumps and compressors • Beltless engine • Extend operating windows for Atkinson cycle and cylinder deactivation • Provide quasi-steady-state load conditions for HCCI/CAI operation (especially with CVT) • E-turbo • High electric power – supercharger boost • When power is not needed, use exhaust energy to drive e-turbo and recharge battery

  40. Otto cycle Atkinson cycle Electric motor only Potential Operating Modes Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo CAI – Controlled Auto Ignition

  41. Consumer Features Plenty of electric power to do anything • On-board electric generator • Construction, emergency power • Individual climate-controlled seats • Power everything • Automatic load leveling and shock resistance • Multiple video displays and high power sound • Safety features – cameras, heads-up displays • “Stealth” operation (military, police, crooks) No limit to the imagination

  42. Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels Social Demand Customer Demand Package Technology Infra- Efficiency Tailpipe Alt. Fuel Cost (Volume, Wt., features) structure Emissions (CO2) ○ △ × ◎ ◎ ◎ Gasoline Gasoline ○ ◎ ○ ○ × △ ◎ - Hybrid ○ △ △ ○ ○ ○ × ◎ △ - - - Diesel Diesel Emissions down, but cost up Diesel shift  cheap gasoline Hybrid Cost down Synergies + customer features Diesels in wide-open rural areas – value highway FE and towing Hybrids everywhere else? – better city FE plus electric features ◎ ○ △ × :No contribution or not acceptable : Excellent : Good : Marginal

  43. Technology Conclusions • Challenge is customer’s low value of fuel economy • Real cost of driving very low • Performance, utility, comfort, safety valued more highly • Most only consider fuel savings during ownership period • Hybrid technology is progressing rapidly • Costs coming down • Synergies with other technologies developing • Consumer features will develop • Crystal ball unclear • Improved conventional engines keep raising the bar • Fuel cells the endgame, but timing unclear (not near term) • CNG may appeal to a segment who dislikes refueling • Diesels for rural areas, hybrids for urban? • Multiple transmission designs likely

  44. Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks Tradeoff with other attributes Declining fuel cost Consumers versus society

  45. CAFE History Historical combined car and light truck CAFE • Since 1987: • Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8 mpg • LDT market share increased from 28% to 48% • Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg

  46. Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars Car Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety

  47. Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT Light Truck Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety

  48. Real Gasoline Price June 2004

  49. Fleet Fuel Economy