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What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies? John German American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Advanced Powertrain Forum August 5, 2005 3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Climate Change Urban Air Quality Transportation’s Social Issues Key Issues

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what does the future hold for advanced technologies

What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies?

John German

American Honda Motor Co., Inc.

Advanced Powertrain Forum

August 5, 2005

3 issues for the future automobile
3 Issues for the Future Automobile:

Energy Supply & Demand

Sustainability

Climate Change

Urban Air Quality

transportation s social issues
Transportation’s Social Issues

Key Issues

Energy

Sustainability

Social Concerns

Climate Change

Air Pollution

honda is committed to clean and efficient gasoline vehicles

Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles

Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market

Popular mass-market models with continual efficiency improvement

Highest CAFE of major OEMs

honda s environmental leadership
Honda’s Environmental Leadership

1975Civic CVCC1st to meet ’70’s Clean Air Act,

without a catalyst

1986Civic CRX-HF1st to top 50-mpg mark

1990VTEC engine introduced

Seemingly-incompatibleachievement of --

1. Strong performance2. Low emissions3. High fuel economy

honda s power train roadmap
Honda’s Power Train Roadmap

FCV

Hydrogen fueled FCV

Alternative Fuel Vehicle

+

Improvement of ICE

Efficiency / CO2 Reduction

I. C. Engine

Technologies

Accord

I M A

Civic

IMA

I M A

Integrated Motor Assist

CNG

INSIGHT

i-DSI

C V T

i-VTEC

VTEC-E

1990

2000

2010

2020

honda s building blocks for the future

Future Building Blocks

  • Working with Government
  • Understanding Fleet Customers
  • Infrastructure Challenges
  • Gaseous Fuel know-how

CLEAN GASOLINE

PURE ELECTRIC

CNG

  • Future Building Blocks
  • EV know-how
  • Infrastructure Issues
  • Home Refueling
  • Customer Habits
Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future
  • Future Building Block
  • LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership
  • Infrastructure is perfect
  • Reasonable cost
  • Catalyst technology
honda s building blocks for the future8

Combines CNG with BEV attributes:

  • Home Refueling
  • As Clean as a BEV
  • Lower Cost potential
  • Future Building Block:
  • Potential Infrastructure Solution
  • Gaseous Fuel know-how

GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS

HOME REFUELED AFV

PURE ELECTRIC

CNG

CLEAN GASOLINE

  • Combines BEV with ULEV
  • Infrastructure is perfect
  • Cost is affordable
  • Good Customer Acceptance
  • Future Building Block:
  • Electric Energy Mgmt & Safety...
Honda’s Building Blocks for the Future
honda s future dream

CNG

HOME REFUELED AFV

GASOLINE-ELECTRIC HYBRIDS

CLEAN GASOLINE

PURE ELECTRIC

FUEL CELL VEHICLES

Honda’s Future Dream
  • Built on Core Honda Technologies:
  • EV and HEV vehicle know-how
  • Gaseous Fuel know-how
  • Catalyst know-how
  • Infrastructure innovation
  • Technology innovation (Ultra-Cap)
honda vtec combustion
Honda VTEC Combustion:

(Variable valve Timing and lift, Electronically Controlled)

  • HIGHER EFFICIENCY
  • LOWER EMISSIONS
  • GREATER PERFORMANCE

Application %

50%

‘91

‘95

‘03

slide12

Variable Cylinder Management

Accel

6 Cylinder operation

Cruise

3 Cylinder operation

Decel

Vehicle speed

honda announced improvements
Honda Announced Improvements
  • 2006 Civic VTEC
    • Delays intake valve closure timing during cruising and other low-load conditions
      • Throttle-by-wire used for larger throttle opening and a major reduction in pumping loss
    • Switches valve timing for excellent acceleration
  • Advanced VTEC
    • Continuously variable intake valve timing and lift
    • + 13% efficiency (vs. 2005 i-VTEC engine
  • Advanced VCM
    • Increased flexibility to expand range of driving conditions
    • Improved active control engine mounts
    • + 11% efficiency (vs. 2005 Honda V-6 engine)
transmission advances
Transmission Advances

Computer controls are enabling a variety of improved transmission designs

  • Dual-clutch automated manual
    • Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper
    • But launch concerns (no torque converter), huge investment
  • Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
    • Excellent city efficiency and extremely smooth
    • Can deliver steady-state engine speeds to facilitate HCCI
    • But torque limited, highway efficiency lower (belt friction), huge investment
  • Improved shift points and lock-up strategies
    • Low investment
  • Lapillier 6-speed automatic

Not yet clear which is most cost-effective – all may co-exist

incremental fe technology
Engine technology

High specific output

(including 4 valve/cylinder)

Variable valve timing/lift

Cylinder deactivation

Direct injection

Precise air/fuel metering

Transmission efficiency

5/6 speed-AT/6-speed MT

CVT

Dual-clutch automated MT

Reduced losses

Lightweight materials

Low drag coefficient

Low resistance tires

Lower accessory losses

Incremental FE Technology
  • Cost and value issue
  • These technologies are continuously being incorporated into vehicles.
  • However, consumers value other attributes more highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and luxury.
  • Putting in technologies just to improve fuel economy may not be valued by customers.

Fuel Economy Improvement - ???

Depends on how much is already incorporated into fleet and synergies (or lack of synergy) between technologies

worldwide fuel control
Worldwide Fuel Control
  • On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable many technologies
  • Growing countries, such as India and China, need to improve fuel quality
    • Sulfur
    • Heavy metals
    • Aromatics
    • Deposit additives
    • etc
slide18

Comparison Between U.S. & Europe

Correlation with fuel price: R2=0.61

Source: US Department of Energy Report, October 2003; Association of European Automobile Manufacturers, April 2003

Note: All data valid through December 2002

Diesel emission standards less stringent than gasoline in Europe

diesel market potential in us
Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency

But hybrids get better fuel economy in city driving

Diesels are currently cheaper than hybrids, but are not cheap

$1500 for 4-cyl., $2000-$3000 for V-8

Tier 2 emission standards will add significant cost

Less convenient service stations (only ~ 20% carry diesel)

Will take time for public to recognize improvements in noise, vibration, smell, starting, and emissions

Plus pickup customers want a “tough” diesel, not a wimpy quiet one

Must compete with improved gasoline engines and hybrids

Europe refineries already shipping unwanted gasoline to US

With continued fleet turnover to diesel in Europe, who will buy gasoline if US also shifts to diesels?

Diesel Market Potential in US
slide21

Hybrid Vehicles

Civic Hybrid

Electric Motor

CVT

Efficient

hybrid

engine

Intelligent

Power

Unit (IPU)

integrated motor assist hybrid
Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid

Parallel - Type

Motor / Generator

  • Relatively Simple, Lightweight & Compact
  • Efficient in City and Highway driving

Engine

Transmission

Inverter

Battery

honda hev technology evolution
Honda HEV Technology Evolution

1999

2002

2004

"World Best Efficiency”

High volume compact car

Performance + efficiency

  • Fuel Economy No.1
  • First optional hybrid powertrain
  • First V6 hybrid
  • Hybrid vehicle for personal use
  • Mainstream compact
  • Mainstream midsize
  • 255 horsepower –better than V6
  • i-DSI + IMA system
  • VTEC + IMA system
  • Innovative Sedan Package
  • City 29, hwy 37 mpg (same as Civic class)
  • Light aluminum body
  • World best aerodynamic design
powerplant

V6 3.0L i-VTEC VCM Engine

(Variable Cylinder Management)

  • IMA Motor
  • DC brushless
  • New IPM Motor
  • Resolver sensor

Compact 5AT

Long torsion, LC response

UP torque converter

Powerplant
  • Parallel-Type Hybrid System
  • Simple, Lightweight & Compact
  • Efficient in City and Highway driving
engine and motor output characteristics
Engine and Motor Output Characteristics

CIVIC HYBRID

High Efficiency,

High Torque

Electric Motor

(1.3L Engine only)

slide26

Attractive Hybrid Features

Integrated

Electric Motor

Fuel Savings!

Low Operating Cost:

Best “Idle” Quality:

Superior Driving Range:

Pride of Ownership:

Beats any Luxury Car!

Fewer Trips to the Station!

Social Benefits!

honda s advanced cng technology
Honda’s Advanced CNG Technology

Compact Cars - CO2 Comparisons“Wellhead-to-Wheel”

Civic GX Values

  • Range > 200 miles
  • CO2 reduction > 20%
  • Performance = Gasoline
  • Near-Zero Emissions
  • Proven Honda DQR
  • Satisfied customers

-25%

400

353

-11%

306

300

264

CO2 emission

236

200

100

0

Civic

Hybrid

Civic

Gasoline

Jetta

Diesel

Civic

CNG

infrastructure innovations
Infrastructure Innovations

NGVs

Fleet & Consumer

Buses, Heavy Duty

Public Fast Fill

Infrastructure

Network

Fleet

Forklifts

Home Refueling

Private Fleet Refueling

slide30

Development History of Honda FC Stack

‘80s

‘99

‘00

‘01

‘02

‘03

‘04

FCX-V2

FCX-V3

Evolves to the next generation

Improved performance and reliability

2001

Next-generation

Honda FC Stack released

1999

Start of R&D on fuel cell basic technology

Compact

Excellent performance

Superb durability

High-pressure hydrogen tank

on a pure hydrogen-fueledFCX-V3

Methanol-reforming fueled

fuel cell stack on

FCX-V2

Series of public road tests as part of

CaFCP

2005 model launch

fcx equipped with honda fuel cell stack
FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK

Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04 in New York

Japan testing started fall 03

First delivery to an individual customer in July 2005

Environmental adaptability

Low/high temperature

Fuel efficiency

Performance

Improved acceleration

performance

Improved energy efficiency

slide33

Home Energy Station

Heat

Fuel cell

Electricity

Inverter

Natural gas

Reform

Refine

Hydrogen

Storage tank

Compress

Reformated Gas

Home Refueling with Co-generation

Cooperative development with Plug Power

fuel cells the holy grail
Advantages:

Very high fuel conversion efficiencies

Greatly reduced heat loss

Virtually zero emissions

Quiet

Reliable and long lifetime

Low maintenance

Wide range of applications in addition to vehicles

Challenges

Packaging, size, weight

Cost

Waste heat rejection

Air supply Compressor

Cold temperature operation

On-board hydrogen storage

Hydrogen infrastructure

Fuel Cells: The Holy Grail
comparison of co 2 emissions
Comparison of CO2 Emissions

JAPAN 10-15 mode

Tank to Wheels

Well to Tank

FE base in 2010

16km/L

(1250kg)

20km/L

CIVIC (VTEC-E)

23km/L

FIT (i-DSI)

Improvement of

Gasoline Vehicle

Oil

Base

29km/L

CIVIC IMA

Diesel Engine

Gasoline Reform.

FCV

CIVIC CNG

Natural Gas

Base

Methanol Reform.

FCV

0

Renewable Energy

Hydrogen FCV

0

50

100

150

CO2 emissions [g/km]

Honda’s Estimate

current evaluation of power plant technologies
Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies

Social Demand

Customer Demand

Package

Technology

Infra-

Efficiency

Tailpipe

Alt.

Fuel

Cost

(Volume, Wt.,

features)

structure

Emissions

(CO2)

×

Gasoline

Gasoline

×

Hybrid

×

Diesel

(range)

○ w/ home refueling

(tank)

-

Nat Gas

(inc. range)

×

×

×

H2 Fuel Cell

×

: Excellent

: Good

: Marginal

:No contribution

or not acceptable

development history of honda hybrids

Soft, magnetic material

Condenser

High

strength

material

Magnet

Improved electrode

New Current Collector

Reduce internal resistance

U-shape, 12-cell series module

Silicon Steel

Development History of Honda Hybrids

00 Insight

03 Civic IMA

05 Accord IMA

06 Civic IMA

High density coil windings

High-performance magnets

15 kW, same size

Internal magnet + resolver pickup, 12kW

also asymmetric windings + 30 % torque

60 mm thick, 10kW

Battery output power increased 30%

158v

Improved cooling

Volume –10%, weight –17%

Power + 20%

NiMH, 144v, 35 kg

Volume –30%, weight –6%

Inverter integrated with motor ECU

Integrated cooling –32% weight, -20%

size. Also more efficient inverter

Integrated inverter, condenser,

heat sink: –13% weight, -57% size

Air cooled

hybrid synergies
Hybrid Synergies
  • More efficient electric pumps and compressors
    • Beltless engine
  • Extend operating windows for Atkinson cycle and cylinder deactivation
  • Provide quasi-steady-state load conditions for HCCI/CAI operation (especially with CVT)
  • E-turbo
    • High electric power – supercharger boost
    • When power is not needed, use exhaust energy to drive e-turbo and recharge battery
potential operating modes

Otto cycle

Atkinson

cycle

Electric motor only

Potential Operating Modes

Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo

CAI – Controlled Auto Ignition

consumer features
Consumer Features

Plenty of electric power to do anything

  • On-board electric generator
    • Construction, emergency power
  • Individual climate-controlled seats
  • Power everything
  • Automatic load leveling and shock resistance
  • Multiple video displays and high power sound
  • Safety features – cameras, heads-up displays
  • “Stealth” operation (military, police, crooks)

No limit to the imagination

mid term evaluation of hybrids vs diesels
Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels

Social Demand

Customer Demand

Package

Technology

Infra-

Efficiency

Tailpipe

Alt.

Fuel

Cost

(Volume, Wt.,

features)

structure

Emissions

(CO2)

×

Gasoline

Gasoline

×

-

Hybrid

×

-

-

-

Diesel

Diesel

Emissions down, but cost up

Diesel shift  cheap gasoline

Hybrid

Cost down

Synergies + customer features

Diesels in wide-open rural areas – value highway FE and towing

Hybrids everywhere else? – better city FE plus electric features

×

:No contribution

or not acceptable

: Excellent

: Good

: Marginal

technology conclusions
Technology Conclusions
  • Challenge is customer’s low value of fuel economy
    • Real cost of driving very low
    • Performance, utility, comfort, safety valued more highly
    • Most only consider fuel savings during ownership period
  • Hybrid technology is progressing rapidly
    • Costs coming down
    • Synergies with other technologies developing
    • Consumer features will develop
  • Crystal ball unclear
    • Improved conventional engines keep raising the bar
    • Fuel cells the endgame, but timing unclear (not near term)
    • CNG may appeal to a segment who dislikes refueling
    • Diesels for rural areas, hybrids for urban?
    • Multiple transmission designs likely
barriers to achieving potential fuel economy increases in cars and light trucks

Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases in Cars and Light Trucks

Tradeoff with other attributes

Declining fuel cost

Consumers versus society

cafe history
CAFE History

Historical combined car and light truck CAFE

  • Since 1987:
  • Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8 mpg
  • LDT market share increased from 28% to 48%
  • Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg
effect of attribute tradeoffs cars
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars

Car Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report

Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5% per year since 1987

However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety

effect of attribute tradeoffs ldt
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT

Light Truck Data from EPA’s 2003 FE Trends Report

Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9% per year since 1987

However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety

real fuel cost of disposable income
Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income

Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1, Personal Income and It's Disposition

willingness to pay for fe
Willingness to Pay for FE

J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study

March 6, 2002 Press Release

  • Consumer interest in hybrid vehicles increases as gasoline prices rise
  • 30% of buyers would “definitely” consider - another 30% indicate a strong consideration
  • Of these, 1/3 would buy even if fuel cost savings during their ownership period would be less than the extra cost of the hybrid option

2/3 would not pay more than fuel savings during ownership period

slide54

Customer Value of Hybrid Fuel Savings

(Savings for the first 50,000 miles @ U.S.$1.80/gallon)

Hybrid

fuel economy

increase

Small car

Midsize car

Large truck

34mpg

baseline

23 mpg

baseline

14 mpg

baseline

$441

$756

$1,176

$1,071

$1,837

$2,857

$652

$1,118

$1,739

+ 20%

+ 40%

+ 80%

J.D.Power survey on hybrids found that “Consumers indicate a willingness to pay more – $1,000 to $1,500 – for a hybrid powertrain…”