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Philippines Country. Office. Asian Development Bank. “ The Status of the Philippine Economy” by Günter Hecker. January, 2001. What you hear about the Philippines in the news lately…. Corruption and cronyism are at a high point Governance low Administration not functioning

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Asian Development Bank


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    Presentation Transcript
    1. Philippines Country Office Asian Development Bank “The Status of the Philippine Economy” by Günter Hecker January, 2001

    2. What you hear about the Philippines in the news lately… • Corruption and cronyism are at a high point • Governance low • Administration not functioning • Budget in disarray, therefore… • IMF has walked out on the Philippines, therefore….. • Investors’ confidence going towards the “zero-point” • Peso at all time low • Stock market at rock-bottom • Economy in shambles • Project implementation takes twice as long as it should

    3. GDP Growth (%)…least affected by the crisis, but moderate recovery

    4. Inflation Rate (%)….stayed in manageable levels

    5. Current Account Balance as % of GDP……has been increasing since the crisis to second place

    6. Exports of Goods and Services Growth (%)….exports are growing, while….

    7. Imports of Goods and Services Growth (%)imports are contracting

    8. Exchange Rate Index(weekly average, last week of June 1997 = 100, $/local currency)…..rates moved together with the other comparator currencies “J2K” Effect

    9. Pesos vis-à-vis Euro “J2K” Effect EDSA2 Effect

    10. Composite Stock Price Index(weekly average, last week of June 1997=100) “J2k” Effect EDSA2 Effect

    11. NPL of Commercial Banks…..low but slightly increasing

    12. Gross Int'l Reserves (GIR) Less Gold vs. Short-term Debts(US$ million)Philippines

    13. GDP per Capita Development….Philippines is second to reach thee pre-crisis GDP/cap level

    14. Central Government Fiscal Balance as % of GDP…..in manageable deficit (however not meeting target figures), but…

    15. External Debt as % of GDP…debt level is second highest of Region

    16. Government Debt Situation

    17. Tax Revenue in % of GNP(1991-2000 Average)…….amongst lowest in Region

    18. Tax Revenue in % of GNP GoP Plan

    19. Revenues Waived due to Tax Incentives in billion Pesos…high portion of special exemptions since 1997

    20. Budget Support to Gov.owned Corporationsin billion Pesos (1999)

    21. Foreign Direct Investmentin $ million….FDIs are dwindling

    22. Real Gross Domestic Investment Growth……worrying level of investment

    23. Major Constraints for Philippine Economy • Lackluster Growth • High Population Growth • High Unemployment • Asset Ownership Distribution • Savings Ratio • Governance • Low Performance of Agriculture Sector

    24. Long-term GNP Growth Marcos Era Post-Marcos Era

    25. Population Growth…still has the second largest growth

    26. Annual Rate of Poverty Reduction1985-95

    27. Unemployment Rate (%)…….highest in Region

    28. Savings Ratio in the 1990’s….Philippines is lowest

    29. Corporate Ownership Distribution in % of Total

    30. Governance Indicators

    31. Performance of Philippine Agricultural Sectorin % of “best practice” in terms of yields per hectar

    32. GNP vs Agri Sector Growth

    33. Sources of ODA Loans As of Dec 2000 Total: $ 12.9 B

    34. Status of ODA Loansas of Dec 2000……very unsatisfactory Portfolio performance Total $ 12.9b

    35. Scenario for the Philippines • Fiscal deficit will be difficult to close • Politically difficult to increase taxes • Export may suffer to due slowdown of US economy • Agriculture…….next El Niño in sight • Direct foreign investment……competition by other countries increasing

    36. 10 Areas of special Attention….. • Improve investors confidence • Accelerate sector reforms • Achieve fiscal consolidation • Broaden liberalization of economy • Conserve remarkable export performance • Exploit competitive advantages • Enhance competitiveness • Increase investment in rural areas • Increase savings rate • Improve implementation of ongoing investment

    37. Philippines Country Office ADB-HQ, 1st Floor East Zone Tel: 638-1002 Web: www.adb.org

    38. PhCO Thankyou very much