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Imperiled Populations II. 10 Sept 2009. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. Pacific Walrus - under review for ESA listing -. What would you do?. Pinchot. Muir. Leopold. Demographic Stochasticity.

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pacific walrus under review for esa listing3
Pacific Walrus- under review for ESA listing -

What would you do?

Pinchot

Muir

Leopold

demographic stochasticity
Demographic Stochasticity

Random fluctuations in demographic parameters (birth & death rate, immigration & emigration rate, sex ratios, or age structure).

Allee effects become increasingly problematic at small population sizes:

probability of encountering mates

communal mating activity

cooperative/group defense & hunting success

communal insulation & nesting

environmental stochasticity
Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Parasitism

Disease

Natural disasters

slide6

Black stilts lay eggs in river bed gravels. Increasing frequency of flooding, due to rapid glacial melt, causes high egg mortality.

environmental stochasticity7
Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters

slide8

Competitive interactions between trout are influenced by water temperature.

Come and get it!

!#@?

environmental stochasticity9
Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters

slide10

Tropical frogs are highly vulnerable to chytridiomycosis. Chytrid fungus thrives within cloud forests. Climate change drives cloud formation at higher elevations.

environmental stochasticity11
Environmental Stochasticity

Fluctuations in reproduction and survival due to:

Habitat alterations

Increased interspecific pressure

Competition

Predation

Disease

Natural disasters

population viability analysis pva
Population Viability Analysis (PVA)
  • A mathematical modeling procedure used to determine whether a population is likely to become extinct within a given time frame.
population growth equation
Population Growth Equation

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Where:

B = birth rate

D = death rate

I = immigration rate

E = emigration rate

t = current time interval (e.g. this year)

t+1 = next time interval (e.g. next year)

population viability analysis
Population Viability Analysis

Deterministic Models

Variables

Model Output

Initial N = 500

Nt+1 = Nt + B - D + I - E

Birth rate = 60 / yr

Death rate = 60 / yr

Probability of extinction within next 100 years:

~0%

Immigration = 20 / yr

Emigration = 20 / yr

slide17

Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living. . . though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

population viability analysis18
Population Viability Analysis

Stochastic Models

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?

probability distributions
Probability Distributions

6

Number of possibilities

0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Combination

population viability analysis deterministic vs stochastic models
Population Viability Analysis- deterministic vs. stochastic models -

Stochastic Model

Probability Distribution

Model Output

Variables

(many repetitions)

Initial N = 500

How often does the population survive:

10 yrs

50 yrs

100 yrs

etc. . .

Birth rate = ?

Death rate = ?

Fires, etc. = ?

pva in action the northern spotted owl23
PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Population Size

birth rate

death rate

emigration

immigration

barred owls

West Nile V.

logging

fires

nest predation

pva in action the northern spotted owl24
PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.

pva in action the northern spotted owl25
PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is clustered in a single location.

pva in action the northern spotted owl26
PVA in action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat

minimum viable population mvp
Minimum Viable Population (MVP)

The smallest population size that can be predicted to have a very high chance of persisting for the foreseeable future.

pva in action the northern spotted owl29
PVA in Action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat (33 grey hexes) is randomly scattered.

pva in action the northern spotted owl30
PVA in Action- the Northern Spotted Owl -

Suitable habitat clusters surrounded by marginal habitat

pva mvp can suggest how large populations should be what if existing populations are too small
PVA & MVP can suggest how large populations should be.What if existing populations are too small?
slide32

Introductions / Reintroductions- Northern Rocky Mtn. Wolf -

Flashdance is the greatest movie ever!

(play video)

the logistics of animal introductions reintroductions
The Logistics of (Animal) Introductions/Reintroductions
  • Sufficient habitat
  • Sufficient food
  • Genetic diversity
  • Veterinary medicine
  • Social dynamics & learned behaviors
  • Long-term funding & political support
slide41

Ex-Situ Conservation- The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature

slide42

Ex-Situ Conservation- The Amphibian Ark -

ensuring the global survival of amphibians, focusing on those that cannot currently be safeguarded in nature

Amphibian Conservation Action Plan

(www.amphibianark.org/pdf/ACAP.pdf)

reading assignments
Reading Assignments

Read text p. 455-462.

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