Future Needs of the U.S. Surface Transportation System American Association of State Highway And Transportation Officials
Global Competitiveness, Not Revenue, Is the Real Challenge • China - 53,000 mile National Expressway System by 2020 • India - 10,000 mile system • Europe - Highways, bridges, tunnels, ports and rail lines.
Foreign Demand Contributes to U.S. Construction Costs Which Will Increase by 70 percent, 1993-2015 • Asphalt • Steel • Construction Machinery • Petroleum
For Our Grandchildren’s Future:Keeping the U.S. Competitive in the Global Economy is the Real Challenge
The Gathering Crisis In Highway Funding • Shortfall in Highway Trust Fund could reduce federal aid • Skyrocketing construction costs erode purchasing power
The Highway Trust Fund Crisis • This report showed an $ 11 billion Federal-aid highway reduction in FY 2009 • President’s FY 08 budget shows deficits in the Highway Account of $200 million and $5.7 billion in calendar years 2008 and 2009 • This requires program reductions of: $800 million in FY 2009 $18 billion in FY 2010
Sustaining SAFETEA-LU Levels Sustain the federal program at the level authorized and guaranteed in SAFETEA-LU, e.g. $43 billion in FY2009. To do this will require a 3 cent increase in federal fuel taxes or its equivalent.
Inflation Erodes Purchasing Power The value of the 18.3 cent per gallon federal gas tax provided in 1998 will equal only 8.3 cents in 2015.
Restoring the Federal Program’s Purchasing Power This will require the program to be increased from $43 billion to $73 billion. To do this will require a 7 cent increase in the federal fuel tax or its equivalent between 2010 and 2015, in addition to the 3 cent increase.
All Levels of Government Must Continue to Fund Their Share • 2015 Highway Capital Investment $160 billion • 2015 Transit Capital Investment $40 billion
Good News:We’ve Done it Before, We Can Do It Again $70.3 billion $19.7 billion Expenditures (In $Billions) Highway Capital Expenditures Grew 280% in 24 years
The Future of the Interstate “If the Interstate System planned in the first half of the 20th century and built in the second half is considered Phase I, it’s time to modernize the system in place and build the additional capacity needed for the 21st century in Phase II.” AASHTO Vice President Pete Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT
A Strategy for a 21st Century Interstate System • Preserve the current system • Enhance its performance • Expand capacity to meet future needs, and • Reduce growth in highway demand by expanding the capacity of transit and rail
Expand Capacity to Meet Future Need • 10,000 miles of new routes on new corridors, • 20,000 miles of upgrades to National Highway System routes to Interstate standards, and • 20,000 new lane miles on existing Interstate routes • Exclusive truck lanes and value-priced lanes. Correcting bottlenecks, upgrade interchanges, and improve intermodal connections
Future AASHTO Reports • AASHTO Policy Recommendations • The Freight Challenge • Revenue Options • A Conceptual Plan to Meet Needs • A Performance-based, Results-driven National Surface Transportation Program