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2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference ... Adjunct Professor of Real Estate. Real Estate Institute. New York University, New York, NY ...

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2003 retail real estate capital and finance conference

The State of the Economy – Perspectives On a Glass Filled to the Half Way Mark

IntroductionHUGH KELLYAdjunct Professor of Real Estate Real Estate Institute New York University, New York, NY

SpeakerMARK ZANDIChief EconomistEconomy.comWest Chester, PA

2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference

a better christmas
A Better Christmas

Christmas Core Retail Sales Growth

% change year ago

November and December

Source: Census, Economy.com

ample household cashflow
Ample Household Cashflow

Real Household Cashflow

% Change Year Ago

Source: Economy.com

slide4

Tax Payments

Billions $ (L)

Effective

Tax Rate (R)

Source: BEA

slide5

The Home Has Become a Cash Machine

Cash Raised via Mortgage Borrowing

Billions $

Source: Economy.com

Housing

Turnover

Cash-Out Refi

Home Equity

retail price deflation
Retail Price Deflation

Core Retail Prices,

% change year ago

3-month moving average

Source: BEA

slide7

Jobs, Millions

Source: BLS

slide8

Profits

Billions $ (L)

Nonfinancial Businesses

Source: BEA

Margin (R)

slide9

Reasons for Optimism

Job Growth (R)

Initial Claims

Ths. (L)

Source: BLS

slide11

Potential Housing Market Problems

Buffalo

Detroit

Portland

Syracuse

Boston

Milwaukee

Nassau

Pittsburgh

Bergen-Passaic

Salt Lake/Provo

Cleveland

Newark

San Francisco

Indiannapolis

Monmouth

Columbus

San Jose

Las Vegas

Jersey City

St. Louis

Los Angeles

Louisville

Orange County

Baltimore

Tulsa

Washington DC

San Diego

El Paso

Corpus Christi

Tampa

Ft. Lauderdale

New Orleans

Miami

Potential Bubbles

Ft. Myers

Potentially Overbuilt

Naples

2003 retail real estate capital and finance conference12
2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference

Personal Bankruptcy Rate

Per Thousand Households

Sources: US District Courts, Census Bureau