2003 retail real estate capital and finance conference
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2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference ... Adjunct Professor of Real Estate. Real Estate Institute. New York University, New York, NY ...

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The State of the Economy – Perspectives On a Glass Filled to the Half Way Mark

IntroductionHUGH KELLYAdjunct Professor of Real Estate Real Estate Institute New York University, New York, NY

SpeakerMARK ZANDIChief EconomistEconomy.comWest Chester, PA

2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference


A better christmas l.jpg
A Better Christmas to the Half Way Mark

Christmas Core Retail Sales Growth

% change year ago

November and December

Source: Census, Economy.com


Ample household cashflow l.jpg
Ample Household Cashflow to the Half Way Mark

Real Household Cashflow

% Change Year Ago

Source: Economy.com


Slide4 l.jpg

Tax Payments to the Half Way Mark

Billions $ (L)

Effective

Tax Rate (R)

Source: BEA


Slide5 l.jpg

The Home Has Become a Cash Machine to the Half Way Mark

Cash Raised via Mortgage Borrowing

Billions $

Source: Economy.com

Housing

Turnover

Cash-Out Refi

Home Equity


Retail price deflation l.jpg
Retail Price Deflation to the Half Way Mark

Core Retail Prices,

% change year ago

3-month moving average

Source: BEA


Slide7 l.jpg

Jobs, Millions to the Half Way Mark

Source: BLS


Slide8 l.jpg

Profits to the Half Way Mark

Billions $ (L)

Nonfinancial Businesses

Source: BEA

Margin (R)


Slide9 l.jpg

Reasons for Optimism to the Half Way Mark

Job Growth (R)

Initial Claims

Ths. (L)

Source: BLS


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Near-Term Outlook to the Half Way Mark% Change Year Ago

Real GDP

Employment


Slide11 l.jpg

Potential Housing Market Problems to the Half Way Mark

Buffalo

Detroit

Portland

Syracuse

Boston

Milwaukee

Nassau

Pittsburgh

Bergen-Passaic

Salt Lake/Provo

Cleveland

Newark

San Francisco

Indiannapolis

Monmouth

Columbus

San Jose

Las Vegas

Jersey City

St. Louis

Los Angeles

Louisville

Orange County

Baltimore

Tulsa

Washington DC

San Diego

El Paso

Corpus Christi

Tampa

Ft. Lauderdale

New Orleans

Miami

Potential Bubbles

Ft. Myers

Potentially Overbuilt

Naples


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2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference to the Half Way Mark

Personal Bankruptcy Rate

Per Thousand Households

Sources: US District Courts, Census Bureau