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Energy Technology and Behavior: Opportunities for Research and Innovation Energy, Technology and Behavior Workshop Ontario Centres of Excellence Keynote Address Toronto, Ontario, Canada 11 June 2009 Paul C. Stern U.S. National Research Council Questions to be Addressed
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Energy, Technology and Behavior Workshop
Ontario Centres of Excellence
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
11 June 2009
Paul C. Stern
U.S. National Research Council
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007
Space heating 6%
Water heating 3%
Air conditioning 2%
Personal truck 5%
Air travel 3%
Personal care 2%
Households account for a major portion ofenergy use2001 U.S. Energy Use ProfileSource: Shui Bin, Joint Global Change Research Institute (forthcoming 2008)
Estimated potential emissions reduction from cost-effective use of existing technology, U.S. households (Dietz, Gardner, Gilligan, Stern, and Vandenbergh, in preparation)
Building shells 25.2
Home heating and cooling efficiency 12.2
Efficient home appliances 22.8
Vehicle efficiency 63.7
Home equipment adjustments, maintenance 15.1
Daily in-home actions 25.3
Auto maintenance 8.6
Driving behavior 24.1
Carpooling, trip chaining 36.1
TOTAL 233.1 36.6
The dominant analytical model
(the Physical-Technical-Economic Model, or PTEM; Lutzenhiser, 2009)…
…does not adequately explain behavior
Energy consumption will be reduced if and only if:
Lesson: the context of household choice constrains the ability to reduce emissions
In general terms, we have known since the 1980s:
The most effective policies are multi-pronged:
The details vary. So…
Estimates for USA based on most effective practices (Dietz, Gardner, Gilligan, Stern, and Vandenbergh, in preparation)
[Emissions reductions without suffering: a timid program]
Weatherization, HVAC 5.1
Other Equipment 9.0
Daily Activities 3.8
…and there are other behaviors not covered
(e.g., US regulation mandates phaseout of incandescent lighting in 5 yr, preempting behavioral interventions and adding 4-5%)
And this estimate is conservative
Policy goal: Make it easier to be green
--find new market opportunities
--new product mixes
--modify supply systems
--address barriers for new technologies and designs
G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, Environmental Problems and Human Behavior, 2nd ed. Pearson Custom Publishing, 2002.
P.C. Stern, Environmentally significant behavior in the home. Pp. 363-382 in A. Lewis, ed., The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Gardner, G.T., and Stern, P.C. The short list: Most Effective Actions U.S. Households Can Take to Limit Climate Change. Environment, 2008, 50(5), 13-24.
L. Lutzenhiser et al., Behavioral assumptions underlying california residential sector energy efficiency programs. Paper for California Institute of Energy and Environment, April 2009.
T. Dietz, G.T. Gardner, J. Gilligan, P.C. Stern, and M. Vandenbergh, The behavioral wedge: Household actions can rapidly reduce U.S. carbon emissions, in preparation.
Contact: Paul C. Stern
National Research Council, Washington DC, USA