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Lake Effect Thunder-Snows Over the Eastern Great Lakes. Robert Hamilton NWS Buffalo, NY Scott Steiger, Ph D SUNY Oswego, NY. Less than 1/10 of 1% of snowfall in the continental United States is accompanied by thunder and lightning. Curran and Pearson 1971. 20%. 80%.

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Lake effect thunder snows over the eastern great lakes l.jpg

Lake Effect Thunder-Snows Over the Eastern Great Lakes

Robert Hamilton

NWS Buffalo, NY

Scott Steiger, Ph D

SUNY Oswego, NY


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Less than 1/10 of 1% of snowfall in the continental

United States is accompanied by thunder and lightning.

Curran and Pearson 1971


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20%

80%

Lake Effect Storms Over the Eastern Great Lakes

Surprisingly Efficient in Producing Lightning


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NLDN

Make Up of Data Set…

Use of Spotter Reports from Dense Snow Spotter Network


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10 Years

130

Events


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+ + + + + +

+ + + + + +

- - - - - -

- - - - -

+ + + + + + +

+ + + +

+ + + + +

Ice particles

-40 C

-20 C

Supercooled droplets start To Nucleate around -10c

-10 C

Graupel Forms

Through Riming

0 C

Droplets form by

Condensation in Updraft


Parameters affecting lake effect thundersnow l.jpg
Parameters Affecting Lake Effect Thundersnow

  • Height of -10C .53 X

  • Lake Surface Temp .48 X

  • Height of Lake Induced EL .45 X

  • Lake Induced CAPE .28 X

  • Fetch (Lk Erie) .46 X

  • Shear…Band Type .93 X

Correlation

Coefficient (r)

t test

significance


Parameters affecting lake effect thundersnow8 l.jpg

Height of -10C

Birch

Dove

Parameters Affecting Lake Effect Thundersnow

…Moderate Correlation

…84% Difference Between

Ltg and Non-Ltg Events

…Supported by Previous Studies

by Schultz, Moore and Michimoto


Height of the lake induced equilibrium level l.jpg

On Average…Lake Induced

EL 37% higher for TSSN events

Height of the Lake Induced Equilibrium Level




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Long Fetch Across the

Axis of the Lake


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Finally….is the presence of lightning aided by close proximity charge concentrations between clouds?


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Houston Environmental Aerosol Thunderstorm (HEAT)

Project….2005 Update (Richard Orville, et al)


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Project EAGLLES

“Eastern Great Lakes Lake Effect Snow”

Headed up by Hobart and William Smith College

and the University of Illinois


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Likely

Not

Expected

Chance

Lightning

Non-Lightning

(Ft)



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