Nature of Crises

1. Nature of Crises

2. An emotionally stressful event or situation involving an impending, abrupt, and decisive change Where there is a natural tendency to view a crisis as bad, crises are more precisely defined as situations that can turn out bad Law enforcement typically face one of three types of crises: Natural Disasters- fires, floods, earthquakes, etc Mechanical - railroad derailments, airplane crashes, hazmat spills, etc Adversarial- snipers, barricaded suspects, riots, hostage situations, etc What is a Crisis? 14

3. Always entail Risk Personal - physical or emotional harm, career hardships Risk to Others-peril to subordinates or bystanders Organizational - loss of equipment, assets or prestige Atmosphere of Uncertainty Information will be incomplete, confusing, ambiguous, unreliable and sometimes even conflicting Time Sensitive May be time competitive PotentialSevere Consequences Human Factor is always present and influential • Five Distinct Factors Present in Every Crisis? 13

4. Countless factors impinge on tactical situations, thus every commander is forced to accept some degree of risk Commanders attempt to reduce risk by seeking better, more timely, and more accurate information Since the time that is necessary to approach certainty is never available in tactical operations, the organization which is attempting to intervene must react in one of two ways: Either increase its information gathering and processing capability Oroperate on the basis of less information • Accepting Risk 12

5. Deterministic Approach A centralized approach which advocates remedies such as adding more personnel, another headquarters, faster computers, and the like Operational skills are viewed as a science where results are highly predictable • Dealing with Uncertainty 11

6. Probabilistic Approach A decentralized approach which requires the acceptance of more uncertainty and ambiguity Operational skills are viewed as more of an art • Dealing with Uncertainty 10

7. Modern Approach (Moderate Approach) Supports a position somewhere between the two extremes Employs a professionally trained staff to gather and analyze data and make informed recommendations • Dealing with Uncertainty 9

8. Tactical responses are always human activities Any attempt at removing or ignoring the human dimension is courting disaster Many factors will influence the human dimension, such as: Training, education, experience, maturity, emotion, prejudice, discipline, fatigue, temperament, etc These factors are alwayspresent,alwaysinteract with one another,and always affect the outcome • The Human Dimension 8

9. Crisis Driven Task Oriented Self-Evolving Time Sensitive Composite Temporary • Emerging Multi-Organizational Networks (EMONs) 7 Organization EMON Emergency

10. Misplaced Confidence Ignored or Unrecognized Influences Unprepared for Command Failure to Learn Failure to Anticipate Failure to Adapt • Courting Disaster 6

11. “It can’t happen here!” “It won’t happen to me!” “The odds are in our favor.” “We can handle it.” Misplaced Confidence 5 Hope is a great companion, but a poor planner

12. Neglecting or ignoringprevious lessons Creeping Missions &Drifting Standards Failure to Learn 4 Branch Davidians “Learn from the mistakes of others. You’ll never live long enough to make them all yourself”!

13. Tactics practiced as a “skill set” rather than an intuitive application of “tried and true” principles Failure to objectively critique Failure to Learn 3 “We confuse good luck and good tactics.”

14. Lack of Adequate Planning Lack of Timely Preparation Incremental Decision Making Failure to Anticipate 2 1992 Los Angeles Riots

15. Questions?