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Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX

Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX. Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP. CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014. EURO-CORDEX Basics Community and Models. (Courtesy of A. Prein). EURO-CORDEX Community 29 actively contribution groups

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Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX

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  1. Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014

  2. EURO-CORDEX BasicsCommunity and Models (Courtesy of A. Prein) • EURO-CORDEX Community • 29 actively contribution groups • Leading institutions in the field of regional climate modeling in Europe • Voluntary effort, contributions are funded by the contributors • Coordination: D. Jacob (CSC Germany) and A. Gobiet (University of Graz, Austria) • EURO-CORDEX Models • 12 different GCMs from CMIP 5 (NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, ACCESS1-3, CanESM2, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M, CISRO-Mk3-6-0, CCSM4) • 10 different RCMs: WRF (different configurations), CCLM, ALADIN, REMO, REGCM, HIRHAM, RACMO, ARPEGE, RCA, PROMES • Inclusion of Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD)  under discussion

  3. EURO-CORDEX BasicsSpecifications • Spatial resolution:- EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km)- EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km) • Driving GCMs: CMIP5 • GHG scenarios:- rcp4.5, rcp8.5 (focus)- rcp2.6 (few simulations) • Periods:- Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – 2008- Control: 1951 – 2005 - Scenario: 2006 – 2100 • Region (center of boundaries):~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E(details: http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCD_CORDEX.html)

  4. EURO-CORDEX BasicsStatus EURO-CORDEX Simulations 0.11° Simulations 0.44° Simulations • hindcast: 16 • hindcast: 22 • control: 22 • control: 32 • rcp26: 8rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 • rcp26: 5rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 • Σ60 • Σ42

  5. EURO-CORDEXEvaluation • “Standard” Evaluation [Kotlarski et al., 2014] EOBS CORDEX EUR-11 CORDEX EUR-44 ENSEMBLES max ENSEMBLES p75 ENSEMBLES median ENSEMBLES p25 ENSEMBLES min • Basic features of European climate captured • Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions., • Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.

  6. EURO-CORDEXEvaluation • Heat Waves Evaluation [Vautard et al. 2013] Bias of 90th centile • Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths • Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection • No improvement at higher resolution

  7. EURO-CORDEXGCM Evaluation • 1. GCM Performance [UNICAN, ETHZ, UNIGRAZ, …] • CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances •  No distinct outlier •  No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as drivers for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.

  8. EURO-CORDEXGCM Selection • 2. Sampling • EUR-11: • 7 GCMs(MPI-ESM, CNRM-CM5, and EC-EARTH in 4 realizations each) • Temperature change range fully sampled • Extremely wet GCMs missing Precipitiation change [%] Temprataure change [K]

  9. EURO-CORDEXClimate Projections • Precipitation Change • First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate Change Signals [Jacob et al., 2013] • Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) 0.11 simulations • Mean climate change • Change in various indices relevant for Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) studies • Results tested for robustness and significance • EUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) • More spatial detail • RCMs provide higher daily precipitation intensities than GCMs

  10. EURO-CORDEXUser Interface • User Interface Activities • Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices and ensemble-based derived products (ongoing, results partly already available) • Provision of a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset (ongoing) • Inter-comparison of BC Methods • User guideline document (under development)

  11. EURO-CORDEX BasicsStatus • Availability for Users • Data-Access(similar to CMIP5): • Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodes • Select project “CORDEX” • Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”

  12. EURO-CORDEXStatus • Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their analysis • 71 EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario simulations finished, ~100 planned in total • EUR-44 40 simulations published on ESGF • EUR-11 24 simulations published on ESGF

  13. MedCORDEX (courtesy of P. Ruti) • Scientific goals • Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc) • Further understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interface • Characterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycle • Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5) REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEM Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE) ARCM – ORCM - Rivers High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy RESM

  14. MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu

  15. MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu

  16. Med-Questions • Geophysical sphere: Are we able to characterize extremes at local scale? Are coupled processes so relevant? • Impact sphere: Are we able to define ecosystems tipping points?

  17. Rainfall extremes SON 1989-2008 Do the resolutionmatter? RCM 50 km RCM 12 km 99 percentile

  18. Rainfall extremes SON 1989-2008 Obs Safran RCM 50 km RCM 12 km

  19. Extreme dynamics Total cyclone center density in SON and DJF.

  20. …and the ocean … SST

  21. Ecosystem impacts Ponti et al, 2014, PNAS

  22. Med-challenges • to develop a regional climate system considering and improving all the components from climate dynamics to human behavior; • to gather and organize observational data into tailored data set for climate process validation and for impact studies; • to increase the link with the groups working on the impact side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX initiative; • to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide detailed and actionable climate information.

  23. THANK YOU

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