Update on CORDEX Key issues for discussion

1. Update on CORDEXKey issues for discussion Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP CORDEX-SAT meeting, ICTP 16-17 May, 2014

2. COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperimentCORDEX • Update on management • Super-brief update on general CORDEx progress (detailed ones on regional efforts will be presented later in the meeting) • Brief summary of the ICRC-2013 • Issues emerging from current experience and discussions

3. CORDEX Management • The original Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) was terminated after successfully ending its mandate • CORDEX is now a project within the newly formed Working Group on Regional Climate (WGRC) • Science Advisory Team (SAT) was formed

4. CORDEX SAT • F. Giorgi (Co-Chair, to be renewed) • W. Gutowski (Co-Chair) • I. Anguelovski (Spain) ? • R. Krishnan (India) • H.S. Kang (Korea) • C. Lennard (S. Africa) • G. Nikulin (Sweden) • S. Solman (Argentina) • T. Stephenson (Caribbean) • F. Tangang (Malaysia) • B. Timbal (Australia)

5. CORDEX Phase I experiment design Model Evaluation Framework Climate Projection Framework AMIP like CMIP like Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 1951-2100 or 1980-2050 Decadal predictions 1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035 Regional Analysis Regional Databanks Multiple AOGCMs

6. CORDEX: Recent Progress • Numerous CORDEX presentations at major meetings • EGU RCM session largest in the CL area • Regional modeling session at AGU • Major pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2013 (See next slide) • Many model communities completing ensembles of simulations over various domains • Papers appearing with explicit use of CORDEX framework (JC, CD, JGR, CR, CC etc.)

7. The Conference will bring together the international community of regional climate scientists to present and discuss results from WCRP regional climate studies, with a particular emphasis on the CORDEX initiative. • 4 Nov: High-Level Session • High-Level Session: key findings from the IPCC AR5 WGI: The Physical Science Basis • Stakeholder Dialogue: regional climate information for decision-makers • 5-7 Nov: Science Segment • Key results from Regional Climate Research and Phase I of the CORDEX project

8. ICRC-CORDEX 2013 conference • Venue and time: Brussels, 4-7 November 2013 • Two segments • Day 1: High level IPCC segment • Day 2-4: Scientific conference • Expected attendance • Over 500 registrations • ~470 abstracts submitted • Plenary + Poster sessions+ side focused meetings • CORDEX progress/achievements • Issues in dynamical and statistical downscaling • Application to IAV work • Future developments/directions • Co-sponsorship by the EU Com. and other agencies

9. Emerging issues for discussion • Need for a mechanism for better coordination/homogeneization across activities in the different CORDEX domains and more generally across the wider CORDEX community • The creation of a CORDEX International Project Office (CIPO) will substantially help in this regard • Three good applications for the CIPO have been submitted and will be evaluated

10. Emerging issues for discussion • Data management and distribution • See Grigory’s presentation/discussion • Interaction with the end-user community • Need of a clear protocol for the identification and “approval” of CORDEX domains • New domains are being proposed based on different “regional” needs: MENA, SE Asia • Important issue as the target horizontal resolution increases

11. Emerging issues for discussion • Better integration of statistical downscaling • See Bertrand’s presentation and discussion • Possible increased focus on regionally-specific forcings • Effects of land-use change; collaboration with the LUCID project • Effects of aerosols • Regional attribution

12. Emerging issues for discussion • Transition to CORDEX Phase II • Increase of “base” resolution: 50 km  25 km • Development of regional pilot “flagship” studies • High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving?) • Process based analysis • Added value • Use of multiple downscaling techniques • Earth system coupling • Regional forcings (land-use, aerosols) • Comprehensive comparison with observations • End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies • Production of actionable information

13. Emerging issues for discussion • Strong need of funding in support of CORDEX research. • RCMs are currently mostly seen as “tools” to produce ouput in support of climate services, but substantial model development is needed, especially when going to non-hydrostatic resolutions. • Need of lobbying for model development projects !!!

14. THANK YOU

15. Flagship pilot studies • Motivation: Focused studies to address key questions about the “value” of the CORDEX approach • What are the questions? • High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving) • Process based analysis • Added value • Use of multiple downscaling techniques • Earth system coupling • Regional forcings (landuse, aerosols) • Comprehensive comparison with observations • End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies • Production of “actionable” information

16. Key issue: How do we choose the flagship studies • A decision protocol will be needed • Some criteria will be needed • Based on physical science key issues/hotspots • Based on VIA key issues/hotspots • Based on availability of high quality, comprehensive (multi-discipline) data, observation campaigns etc. • Based on interactions with other WCRP programs (e.g. GEWEX) • Based on availability of (or potential for) funding