Why spend time developing a great emissions inventory?

1. PM2.5 Attainment SIPs permits RACT ozone Why spend time developing a great emissions inventory? NEI EPA-State-Local 2012 Modeling Workshop November 14, 2012 Tampa, Florida ACME 0 Control reductions tpy tpy 0.35 ACME Products, LLC

2. Agency Goal • One major goal is to ensure compliance with the Agency’s health and welfare standards (NAAQS) through monitoring, air quality assessments, permitting and development of various types of control options and measures. • Modeling is a tool to support this goal

3. Modeling is Utilized in Various Areas State Implementation Plans (SIPs) Superfund, RCRA, Water Divisions Environmental Justice MODELING Toxics Permitting State/Local Air Quality Agencies Industry Monitoring Federal/State/Local Transportation Agencies Other Federal Agencies (DOD, DOE, DOI, DOA) NEPA

4. To demonstrate that the NAAQS* have been or will continue to be attained • Required by U.S. law (1970 Clean Air Act, 1990 CAA Amendments) for criteria pollutants), in most cases for CAPS and HAPs • NAAQS implementation plans and PSD/NSR rules • Less resource intensive in an assessment involving ambient data • NAAQS Attainment Plans • Regional Haze • SIP revisions • PSD/NSR permitting • National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) • Toxics and Risk Analyses Why Model? When to Model?

5. Air Pollution: Many Sources, Chemicals, and Outcomes Mobile Sources (on- & off-road) Ozone NOx, VOC, Toxics Particles (Cars, trucks, airplanes, boats, trains construction, farming equipment ,etc.) LargeIndustrial Sources SO2, CO, NO2, Pb Chemistry Meteorology NOx, VOC, SOx, Toxics, Lead Visibility (Power plants, factories, refineries/chemical plants, etc.) Misc.Toxics Small Diffuse Sources Atmospheric Deposition NOx, VOC, Toxics, Lead (Homes, small business, construction, farming equipment, fires, etc.)

6. Modeling Studies Forensics and health Studies Uses of Emissions Inventories Monitor siting Emissions inventories Designations Attainment, maintenance, conformity Federal Register Actions on SIPs

7. Emissions Inventories Essential for the development of the State Implementation Plan (SIP) and an air quality regulatory program • Attainment SIP • Evaluation for the entire NAA • Identification and Evaluation of Precursors • Technical Adequacy of Attainment Demonstration • SIPAttainmentEmission Inventory • Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration • RACT/RACM • Contingency Measures • Conformity (Motor Emission Vehicle Budgets) • Enforceability Modeling Demonstration Conceptual Description Modeling/Analysis Protocol Emissions Inventory Preparations and Results Air Quality/Meteorology Preparations and Results Performance Evaluation for Air Quality Model (and Other Analyses) Description of the Strategy Demonstrating Attainment Supplemental Analyses/Weight of Evidence Determination Data Access • Redesignation (175A) • Evaluation for the entire nonattainment areas • EPA determined NAAQS has been attained • SIP fully approved by EPA under §110(k) • Improvement in AQ due to Enforceable and permanent reductions in emissions • State has met all applicable §110 & Part D requirements • Plus Conformity i.e., (Motor Emission Vehicle Budgets, MVEB) • EPA has fully approved Maintenance Plan under §175A • AttainmentEmission Inventory • Maintenance demonstration • Commitment to continue monitoring network • Verification of Continued Attainment • Contingency Plan 110(a)(1) Maintenance SIP • Evaluation for the entire area • AttainmentEmission Inventory • Maintenance Demonstration • Ambient Air Quality Monitoring • Verification of Continued Attainment • Contingency Plan

8. Complete – no holes • Defensible when used “The data were the best available information at the time” • Timely • Representative • For the inventory year • Results of using it in modeling match well to ambient air measurements • Transparent – we know and can explain to others where the data comes from A Strong Inventory http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei20/index.html#plenary

9. NEI, Permits, State and local databases, Special projects (e.g., SEMAP), others • The Air Emissions Reporting Rule • Requires annual total criteria pollutant emissions from all sources and seasonal emissions in some areas • “Potential to emit” thresholds for identifying point sources; but actual emissions must be submitted. • Legal basis is partly the “periodic inventory” requirements in the Clean Air Act for State implementation of the NAAQS • Hazardous Air Pollutants are collected through • Voluntary participation for NEI • Toxics permits for State and local programs • EPA augments both CAP and HAP emissions to help strengthen the data in the NEI Emissions Inventories for Modeling http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei20/index.html#plenary

10. S/L/Ts submit data which EPA uses to develop the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) • EIS has been designed in a way to allow high quality data, such as release point locations and parameters, to not change from year to year. • This allows data submitters to ensure their improvements are used for current and future inventories. • EPA's NEI is used for NAAQS development and implementation, controls, rulemakings and many other national programs that impact state and local agencies. • EPA does air quality modeling and uses the NEI for such applications. • That is a good reason to make the NEI as strong and accurate as possible by interacting with the folks in their regions that collect and submit data to EIS. • The NEI is also used for international reporting and treaties. RPOs can also promote consistencies across states which could lead to better accuracy and prevent outliers. Emissions Inventory System - EIS

11. EPA Air quality modelers have played an important role in improving many parts of the 2008 NEI via their modeling applications and review from a modeling perspective. • It is also important to keep that type of constructive feedback on emissions going in every agency. • Regional modelers can provide feedback to their state inventory developers who can ensure the corrections are submitted to EIS. • Work to improve the NEI with the best data processing emissions for air quality modeling and pollution control and cost scenarios is one of the significant uses of control information in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). • It is expected that reliable control information in EIS will benefit national, regional, and local attainment modeling. • Control information data fields in the EIS have been reviewed for the 2008 NEI Facility and Point Inventory and potentially questionable data have been identified for review and possible update by state/local/tribal (S/L/T) agencies. So what can/should you do?

12. Spasibo! (Thanks) Brenda Johnson johnson.brenda@epa.gov Richard Wong Wong.richard@epa.gov Dianna Smith mobile missions smith.dianna@epa.gov Richard Monteith Monteith.richard@epa.gov