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BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES SPACE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE S P A C E, E C O L O G Y, S A F E T Y Sofia - 4 – 6 December - 2012. СРАВНИТЕЛЕН АНАЛИЗ НА ПРОГНОЗИТЕ НАПРАВЕНИ ПРЕЗ 2011-2012 ОТ ЦЕНТЪРА ЗА ПРОГНОЗИ НА КОСМИЧЕСКОТО ВРЕМЕ И КОСМИЧЕСКИЯ КЛИМАТ КЪМ ИКИТ БАН.

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BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES SPACE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE

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Bulgarian academy of sciences space research and technology institute

BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

SPACE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE

S P A C E, E C O L O G Y, S A F E T Y

Sofia - 4 6 December - 2012

2011-2012

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Bulgarian academy of sciences space research and technology institute

ABSTRACT/RESUME

A comparison of the deviations between predicted and measured values of space weather parameters forecasts is made for one year period. A classification in three categories of the forecasted parameters and states of space weather is created. Different situations which make possible the space weather forecasting are registered and analyzed from point of view of effectiveness and continuity. The main categories are the following: 1) high degree of coincidence between predicted and realized parameters; 2) low degree of coincidence between predicted and realized parameters; 3) moderate degree of coincidence between predicted and realized parameters. An attempt was made for physical explanation of all three categories of classified forecasts. An appreciation is made concerning the degree of coincidence between the predicted and the measured space weather parameters. Some conclusions are stated for the level of forecasting effectiveness concerning the real methodology of predictions. The complex system of parameters which are taken into account in the outer space is formulated and analyzed. The sources of data and models which are used in the virtual space by prediction of space weather are also discussed.


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