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Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization

Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization. ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY. John Taylor Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions Argonne National Laboratory USA. Outline. Background - Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI)

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Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization

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  1. Regional Climate SimulationAnalysis & Vizualization ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY John Taylor Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions Argonne National Laboratory USA

  2. Outline • Background - Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) • Regional Collaborative Climate Center • Regional Climate Research Activities at ANL ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  3. Enhanced Spatial Resolution ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Increasing spatial resolution is essential to correctly simulate regional climate variability and change, which affects agriculture, water resources and energy consumption.

  4. ACPI Research Priorities • Model development and evaluation • Atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice components, coupled models, process parameterizations, simulation design, algorithm development • Climate projections • Optimization of computer performance, multi-decade ensemble simulations, archives of petabyte data sets, generation of probability distributions • Assessment and analysis of impacts • Policy evaluation, impacts research, regional/national/international assessments, specialized tools and data sets, information dissemination

  5. Global System Model Capability Roadmap Machine 00 01 02 03 04 Ensemble Projections Link Components and test Coupled Model Develop and test Component Models 1 TF 5 TF 5 TF 40 TF 70 km atmos 15 km ocean 140 km atmos 30 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocean ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY 70 km atmos 15 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocaan

  6. Regional Climate Centers- Motivation - • to link the predictive global climate modeling capability with the impact assessment and policymaking communities ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  7. Cost of ‘Natural Disasters’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  8. Data and Software Products Database Tools Data Extraction Tools Visualization Tools Raw Global GCM Output from Multiple 100 Year Runs Level 0 Level 1 Global GCM Monthly Means and Variances Visualization & Analysis Tools Downscaling Tools -Statistical -Regional Climate Model ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Scale Monthly Means and Variances Level 2 User Generated Regional Scale Data Sets Regional Climate System Modeling Tools Level 3 Level 4 Impact Assessment Specific Data Sets Workbenches for Impact Assessment

  9. Data Grids • Integrate data archives into a distributed data management and analysis “Grid” • More than storage & network, also e.g. • Caching and mirroring to exploit locality • Intelligent scheduling to determine appropriate replica, site for (re)computation, etc. • Coordinated resource management for performance guarantees • Embedded security, policy, agent technologies for effective distributed analysis

  10. Data Grids Usage Model • Data suppliers publish data to the Grid • Users request raw or derived data from Grid, without needing to know • Where data is located • Whether data is stored or computed • User can easily determine • What it will cost to obtain data • Quality of derived data • Data Grid serves requests efficiently, subject to global and local policy constraints

  11. “Access datasets A, B; run A->meso->hydro; compare result with B” Historical data archive Historical data archive Query manager Cache manager Resource manager Cache Simulation data archive Analysis engine Cache Cache Cache meso hydro compare Climate Data Scenario “How do midwest flood frequencies under 2xCO2 scenario compare with historical data?”

  12. Current ANL Activities • Parallel regional climate model development and testing based on MM5v3 • Comparison of MM5 PBL with ABLE data • Contributing to PIRCS experiments • PIRCS 1c 15 year run ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  13. Current ANL Activities • Performance testing using high resolution grids (10km) over Midwest with MM5v3 • Downscaling using boundary and initial conditions derived from FOAM and NCAR PCM • Testbed for regional climate simulation laboratory - Regional climate workbench • Delivering regional climate data using interactive web based tools ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  14. Testbed for Regional Climate Simulation Laboratory Interactive Web Access -maps -data MM5 Based Regional Climate Model Downscaled Mid-west Climate Database NCEP Global Analysis Statistical Downscaling Tools GCM Output -FOAM -CCSM/PCM ….. Climate Impacts Workbenches ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Science Teams New Process Models Analysis Tools ABLE Data

  15. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  16. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  17. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  18. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  19. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  20. Regional Climate Workbench ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  21. ‘Hurricane Huron’ • An intense cutoff low developed over the Great Lakes region during the period 11-15 September 1996. • The system eventually developed an eye and spiral convection bands producing intense rainfall and wind speeds in excess of 75 mph • We have investigated the role of model resolution by performing identical ‘Hurricane Huron’ simulations at 80, 40, 20 and 10 km grid resolution

  22. ‘Hurricane Huron’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  23. ‘Hurricane Huron’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  24. ‘Hurricane Huron’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  25. ‘Hurricane Huron’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  26. ‘Perfect Storm’ ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  27. Regional Climate Studies • We have applied the MM5 model running on the ANL IBM-SP to simulate conditions at the ABLE site • ABLE data provide a basis for testing MM5 model performance • ABLE data are being used at ANL to improve the boundary layer parameterizations included in MM5 and other mesoscale meteorological models • Figure opposite shows vertical temperature differences between MM5 model and ABLE data from Beaumont, KS (37.63N & 96.5W) The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE) study was designed to improve the current understanding of the physics of the boundary layer (RASS = Radio Acoustic Sounding System)

  28. Midwest MM5v3 Scaling on ANL SGI-Origin 2000 ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  29. Performance and Scaling • Full scale high resolution run over the United States based on PIRCS experimental setup • MM5v3.4 non-hydrostatic model runs for 1985 • 1 grid • 101x75 52 km grid ie ~20.5 million km2 • t = 150 seconds ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  30. Experimental Setup • Perform full scale independent experiments on Chiba City at ANL and on seaborg at NERSC • Boundary conditions based on NCEP reanalysis data ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  31. Experimental Setup • MM5v3.4 using MPI as released by NCAR ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  32. 1 year Regional Climate Simulation ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  33. Simulated Days per CPU Hour ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  34. 6 Processors per Month on ANL SGI-Origin 2000 ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  35. Interactive Data Analysis ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  36. Interactive Data Analysis ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  37. Argonne Regional Climate Center CAVE5D Version 2 64 bit version Enhanced functionality Works with large data sets 2GB+ The Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT)— This FORTRAN 90/MPI library provides a unique resource for the rapid development of model couplers MCT will be used for next generation coupler for MCS Contact Jay Larson and Rob Jacob at MCS for details ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  38. Issues to consider…. • Downscaling methodologies/protocols • Statistical vs physically based approaches • Improving the predictive capabilities of regional climate models eg hydrological cycle, PBL, …. • Delivering “quality” data products • Global GCM input data quality • Computer science required to support a Regional Climate Center ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  39. SSI Citations Index“Regional Climate” ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

  40. Argonne Regional Climate Center Climate Center Web Site: http://www-climate.mcs.anl.gov Argonne MCS Web Site: http://www.mcs.anl.gov ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

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