Remotely sensed enviroclimatic patterns and ebola outbreaks linkages and early warning
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Remotely-sensed Enviroclimatic patterns and Ebola outbreaks: linkages and early warning. Dan Slayback Jorge Pinzon Compton Tucker 8 September 2004. Biospheric Science Branch, Code 923 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD 20771 USA. Outline. Ebola outbreaks: facts and hypotheses

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Remotely sensed enviroclimatic patterns and ebola outbreaks linkages and early warning

Remotely-sensed Enviroclimatic patterns and Ebola outbreaks:linkages and early warning

Dan Slayback

Jorge Pinzon

Compton Tucker

8 September 2004

Biospheric Science Branch, Code 923

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenbelt MD 20771 USA


Outline
Outline

  • Ebola outbreaks: facts and hypotheses

  • Environmental links to remotely sensed data

  • Spatial & temporal specificity of environmental trigger events

  • Conclusions

From: Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. 2004. JE Pinzon, JM Wilson, CJ Tucker, R Arthur, PB Jahrling, and P Formenty, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. (in press)



Outbreak severity
Outbreak Severity tropical forest

385

210

79

47


Outbreak locations
Outbreak Locations tropical forest


Transmission scenarios
Transmission Scenarios tropical forest

Community Epidemic Scenario

  • Secondary transmission within species.

  • Reciprocal transmission between species.

APES/HUMANS

INTERMEDIATE

HOST

RESERVOIR

Peter Walsh et al. Nature (2003)

Just because a species tests positive for virus or antibodies does not mean that it is a link in the chain of transmission to apes.

“Cul de Sac” Hosts

Cul de Sac HOST--HUMANS?

APES

RESERVOIR


Possible ebola transmission s no usual suspects
Possible Ebola Transmission(s) tropical forestno usual suspects!

It is unknown where the virus dwells…


Environmental links with remotely sensed data available datasets
Environmental Links with tropical forestRemotely Sensed Data:available datasets

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Moderate-resolution (1-10’s kms) environmental satellites

MODISes

NOAA-16

AVHRR

NPOESS

NOAA 14

AVHRR

NOAA 11

AVHRR

NOAA 9

AVHRR

SPOT

NOAA 7

AVHRR

SeaWiFS

NOAA9


Noaa avhrr 8 km ndvi data set
NOAA AVHRR 8-km NDVI Data Set tropical forest

Radiation


Vis nir swir band comparison
VIS/NIR/SWIR Band Comparison tropical forest

SPOT-VGT

SeaWiFS

AVHRR

MODIS



Major dataset differences
Major Dataset Differences tropical forest

Global NDVI anomalies




1994 ebola outbreak locations ndvi time series
1994 Ebola Outbreak Locations NDVI Time Series sites, during the outbreak year?


Mean time series and anomalies
Mean time series and anomalies sites, during the outbreak year?


Spatial signatures and risk
Spatial signatures and risk sites, during the outbreak year?


Canonical correlation analysis cca
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) sites, during the outbreak year?

  • CCA is a method that maximizes the variance between two datasets. Here, we use CCA to identify areas and times that exhibit enviroclimatic signals typical of those at known outbreak sites and dates.

    • CCA(A) = [U,S,V]

    • A: paired-mode correlation matrix between yearly NDVI signals and corresponding NDVI signals from the outbreak sites at outbreak years.

    • U: orthonormal vector of satellite NDVI signals

    • S: percentage of covariance explained by canonical factors

    • V: orthonormal vector of Ebola sites

  • The analysis conducted only over areas with high enviroclimatic correlation to previous outbreak sites (r2 > 0.95)


Trigger event summary
Trigger event summary sites, during the outbreak year?


the hot zone sites, during the outbreak year?


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