CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP. Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy Laboratory (AL) Element 4. Climate Variability and Change Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) Element 7. Carbon Cycle Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL)
Element 3. Atmospheric CompositionAeronomy Laboratory (AL)
Element 4. Climate Variability and ChangeClimate Diagnostics Center (CDC)
Element 7. Carbon CycleClimate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL)
Element 10. Modeling StrategyGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements
Final Report, July 2003
The NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center provides a unique federal center of expertise for developing and applying climate diagnostic methods to improve understanding and predictions of climate.
CDC research goals are to:
US Precip Since 1895
US Temps Since 1895
CDC research focuses especially on climate phenomena that have major impacts on society and the economy, including climate events such as major droughts and El Niño and La Niña conditions.
Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935
California floods during 1998 El Niño
Example: Causes and Prediction of Drought
North Platte river, May 22, 2002
Mean flow: 1310 cu. ft/sec Observed flow: 0 cu. ft/sec.
Fires in the West
Importance and context
The U.S. Drought and Heat 1998 - 2002
U.S. Oct-May Precipitation and Temperatures
Average anomalies 1998-2002
An important clue:
The 1998-2002 drought was part of a larger pattern.
Did unusual tropical ocean conditions force this pattern?
Tropical ocean warming
The warming tropical “warm pool”
The strengthening El Niño
Observed Temperature and Precipitation anomalies
(June 1998 - May 2002)
Model-simulated Temperature and Precipitation anomalies given observed SSTs for this period
Are trends in the ocean conditions also forcing longer-term temperature trends over the United States?
Model simulations are using GFDL model with observed
ocean temperature trends, but no CO2 or aerosol trends.
Model-estimated probability distributions of U.S. regional temperature trends - ocean forcing only
(constant CO2 and aerosols)