Chapter 18 Population and Society

1. Chapter 18Population and Society Demographic factors, changes, and theories

2. 3 hours MC (7 Chapters x 9=63) Short answer questions 3 of 5 One mandatory Total 4 x 4 marks=16 marks total. Essay Questions 8 questions posted on web before exam (Tues April 01) During exam… One mandatory plus 2 of 4 Total of 3 essay questions 12 marks each Total 115 marks Chapter 11-religion Chapter 12-politics Chapter 13-social movements Brym Chapter 3 Chapter 14-class, inequality Chapter 15-gender Chapter 16-ethnicity, race Brym Chapter 4 Chapter 18-population, demography. MC & Short Answer on above (since last midterm) Final Exam

3. Essays returned at exam • Post “grades to date” • Away April 2-8 • Review Sessions, questions • Afternoons April 10 (F307, 1-2) April 11 (F307, 1-2).

4. Demography • A study of the growth, distribution, and development of populations with respect to their geographic concentration and composition (by age, sex, marital status, etc.) • Demographic factors: fertility, mortality, and migrationdetermine changes in population size

5. Why demography is important? • -first used for ... taxation & conscription • -guidelines for allocation of resources • -planning for future social policies • -evaluation of social policy, international comparisons • -gerontology researchers .... relationships between different groups in population age structures.

6. Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit From The Coming Demographic Shift(1996) David Foote • demographics is the key to understanding the past & forecasting the future. • “Your year of birth is one of the most important things about you.” • Demographic determinism?

7. Banting & Best 1921 WW1 1914-18 WW II 1939-45 Depression 1929-39 born * (1920-1930 cohort) born 1980-1990 cohort Aside – cohort, period, maturation effects

8. Population Aging • -demographic or population aging is the process whereby an entire population grows older. • Indicators: • Mean age, median age, proportion 65+ • The phenomenon of Population Aging is: • Unprecedented • Pervasive • Profound • Enduring

9. Population Aging

10. -past contributions -voluntary work -removed mandatory retirement Pensions Health care Housing Etc… “He ain’t heavy, he’s my boomer”Debate grows over seniors as burden?Toronto Star (May 27, 2007)

11. Foot & Stoffman (1998) described life circumstances of birth cohorts born between 1914 – 1995. (in million) current cohortbornnumberage baby-boom 1947-1966 9.9 30-50 baby-bust 1967-1979 5.6 25-35 baby-boom 1980-1995 6.5 9-24 -echo

12. Wave Surfers (1945-55) More jobs, advancement Lower home prices Earned 1/3 more than fathers. Junior Boomers (1956-1965) Youth unemployment High mortgage/interest rates Higher grades university entry Made 10% less than fathers Think about the “experiences” of these two cohorts

13. Population • Population is a collection of persons alive at a specified time, that meets certain criteria • Often national or geographic criteria • Population is a collectivity and it persists over time

14. Membership of a population is continuously changing through processes of: • Attrition: losses through out-migration and death • Accession: gains through birth and immigration

15. Interconnectedness of Demographic and Social Change • Aggregate demographic phenomena are the collective expression of individual behaviour conditioned by cultural norms and social structure • Examples: • Acceptance of cohabitation causes decline in total marriage rate and the median age at marriage • Changes in geographic origin of immigrants cause changes in Canadian society

16. Examples (continued…) • Changes in public health, medicine, and standard of living at the turn of the 20th century have caused the size of today’s population of North America • The bubonic plague caused development of universities, and then nationalism, in the 15th-century Europe

17. History of the World Population • Until 1750: • Slow population growth • After 1750: • Population explosion, particularly since the early 19th century • The world population growth peaked in the 1970s, and has declined since

18. Expectations for the 21st century: • Most of the population growth will take place in developing countries • Annual increase between 2.6 and 2.5% • Population growth in the developed countries will be 0.1% annually • World population 1999 approx 6 billion, estimated to be 8 billion by 2022.

20. The Future of the World Population • Even if current fertility rates decline below the replacement rate (2.1 children per woman), the population will continue to grow because of populationmomentum • Because of past high fertility and mortality decline, the proportion of population in reproductive ages will continue to grow • Therefore kids are born!

21. Because of decline in fertility, the population will grow older • The potential support ratio will decline • Potential support ratio: the number of persons of working age per one older person • Eg: Italy from 4 to 2 (2 aged 15-64 for “every older person”)

22. Age Compositions • Fertility plays a greater role than mortality in determining the age composition • Low-fertility societies (in developed countries) have relatively few people in younger age brackets • Rapidly growing populations (in developing countries) form an age pyramid with a wide base and narrow top

23. http://www.scalloway.org.uk/popu4.htm

24. When the large young population in these countries reaches the working age, there may be a developmental opportunity or social unrest and political instability • Why?

25. Theories of Population Change • Two opinions regarding the interrelationship of population and resources: • Curbing population growth is essential to the balance between humans, resources, and the sustainable environment (Malthus) • Population size is a minor factor in this interrelationship (Marx)

26. Demographic Transition • Developed on the basis of changes in birth and death rates in Western Europe in the context of socio-economic modernization • -gradual process …. society moves from having high to low fertility/mortality rates (population aging begins). • Applicable to developing countries, although their vital rates have been changing in different structural conditions

27. Stages: • Pre-transitional: high birth and death rates • Transitional: high fertility and declining death rates • Final: low fertility and mortality

28. “Demographic Transition” of Western Europe • What is the populationchange in each of the phases of transition?

29. Modifications to Demographic Transition Theory • The original theory posits that economicdevelopment, urbanization, and declineinmortalitypreceded the decline in fertility • Coale: fertility declines when • Fertility decisions are left to choice (i.e., cultural and religious norms do not forbid fertility control) • Reduced fertility is viewed as economically advantageous • Effective methods of fertility control are known and available

32. Declining mortality rates in developing countries have been achieved through family planning and public health programs offered by the industrialized countries

33. Malthusian Theory of Population • Malthus (1798) believed that: • Humans are strongly motivated by sexual desire • Humans are highly fertile. • Therefore, population follows geometric (exponential) progression • Economic resources, particularly food production, follow arithmetic progression

34. Population can be controlled by: • Positive checks (famine, war, and disease) • Negative checks (postponed marriage and abstinence) • He considered contraception immoral

35. Criticism of Malthusian Theory • Failure to consider problem-solving capacity of humans • Agricultural and industrial revolutions were responses to population growth • Optimal population size depends on the level of economic activity and consumption

36. Reversal: population does not put pressure on economy • Economy presses the population to consume • Unacceptability of birth control is inconsistent with the goal of population control

37. Canadian Population: Components of Growth • Traditionally, natural increase has been the main factor in population growth • Two-thirds of the growth in the last 150 years • Since the 1980s, immigration has accounted for half of the population growth

38. Canadian Population: Mortality • Crude death rate: 7 • The number of deaths per 1,000 population) • Life expectancy at birth: 79 • The average number of years of life for a newborn under prevailing mortality conditions • Increased life expectancy is caused by lower infant mortality • Infant mortality: 5.3 • Number of infant deaths divided per 1,000 live births)

39. Epidemiological Transition in Canada • Industrialized societies have gone through three epidemiological stages: • Infectious and parasitic diseases, violence, and accidents are leading causes of death; life expectancy is low • The “stage of receding pandemics” (1750–1900): infectious diseases are resisted, life expectancy increases • The stage of “man-made and degenerative diseases”: chronic and degenerative ailments, accidents, violence, and suicide are leading causes of death

40. Canada is in the fourth stage • It is similar to the third: survival by people with degenerative diseases is increased, especially among the old • The majority of deaths is compressed past age 65 • Compression of morbidity

41. Canadian Population: Fertility • Crude birth rate: 11 • Number of births per 1,000 population • Total fertility rate: 1.49 • Number of children a woman would bear according to age-specific birth rates over her reproductive years • The highest TFR was in 1959: 3.94

42. The proximate determinants of fertility are influenced by social factors • The extent of non-marriage • The level of contraceptive use • The degree to which abortion is practiced • The level of postpartum amenorrhea

43. The Baby Boom • Economic prosperity of the 1940s explains the rise of marriage and early procreation • The major institutions provided security and stability • Social safety-net was developed • Pro-natalist values promoted by the church

44. Gender roles encouraged female preoccupation with marriage, motherhood, and home • These conditions changed in the 1960s due to women’s flight from domesticity and improvements in fertility control

45. The Baby Bust • Two explanations: • Economic: the rising material and non-material costs of parenting • Rising value of time for women • Hamper career / potential income • “Psychic” costs • Cyclical theory: the size of one’s birth cohort influences one’s economic opportunities, and therefore one’s parenting preferences • This is a self-regulatory process

46. Sociological explanations: structural and economic forces interact with ideational factors • Fertility changes are based on diffusion of changing ideas • Individualism • Consumerism • Material preferences/goals over early marriage, family building. • Sex-role revolution • Emancipation from traditional sex roles, alternatives.

47. Implications of Sub-replacement Fertility • Can be followed through transformation of age pyramids over the course of demographic transition: • The true pyramid: a high percentage of population under 15 • The constrictive pyramid: fertility declines • The stationary pyramid (Canada will attain it in 2036)

48. Median age The Daily, Statistics Canada, Oct 26, 2006.

49. Dependency Ratio (s) • ratio examines number of “dependent persons” or “non-workers”. In population supported directly or indirectly by those in labour force. • Youth DR (#0-17 / 18-65) • Old-age DR (#65+ / 18-65) • Total DR • a ratio of 62 = there are 62 people (0-17 and 65+) for every 100 people 18-64. • -in 2001 …..TDR = 62

50. The elderly replace the youth as the dependent part of the population • Canada will probably need large numbers of immigrants to correct a low potential support ratio • Problems with DR ?