Population, Economy and Society

1. Population, Economy and Society Theory

2. Theory • Man has been concerned with population since ancient times! • Much early thinking was merely speculative • They included such issues as: • What is the desirable number of people for political and military reasons? • If the need arises how might we stimulate or retard population growth?

3. Theory • The influence of the early writers • Modern theory begins with Malthus • Two major factors influenced the modern theories: • The upsurge in population growth • The nearly universal preoccupation with the “problems” of development

4. Theory • One way to divide population theory is into three broad periods: • 1. Early theory - From ~500BC to the late 1700’s • 2. Early modern theory - Late 1700’s to late 1800’s • 3. Late modern theory- 20th century • Pro and Anti-natalism!

5. Theory • Confucius (~500 BC) suggested that population growth may: • reduce worker output • depress levels of living for the masses • engender strife • Can be seen to be the precursor to theories connecting population growth with other social and economic factors

6. Theory • They also presaged the more modern theory’s concern with “checks” to population growth! They specifically mention: • that mortality increases when food supplies are insufficient • that premature marriage is associated with high infant mortality rates • that war checks population growth

7. Theory • that costly marriage ceremonies reduce marriage rates • The next group of writers of importance are the ancient Greeks. • Plato and Aristotle (~340 BC) discussed the question of an optimum population size for the city-states • More specifically they thought that: • 1. A population should be self-sufficient

8. Theory • thus possess the territory to be so • 2. Should not be so large as to make constitutional government impossible • Plato, in his Laws, specified that the ideal number was 5,040 • (This would be citizens, the total population would be ~60,000) • He also specified how this number might be maintained:

9. Theory • In the case of underpopulation: • rewards, advice or rebuke of the young in order to increase the birth rate • as a last resort, immigration • To remedy overpopulation • birth control for large families • colonization To remedy overpopulation

10. Theory • Aristotle was less specific about optimum size but did specify that overpopulation would breed poverty and social ills! • The Ancient Romans • viewed population issues from the perspective of a great empire rather than a small city-state • saw population growth as an advantage, particularly for military purposes

11. Theory • Can be seen in the laws of Augustus • His legislation: • created privileges for those who married and had children • discriminated financially against those not married • The Ancient Hebrews • These writings: • placed much emphasis on procreation

12. Theory • Discussed the desirability of a large population for military and economic reasons • recognized that a population could become too large • also recognized the effects of war, famine and pestilence • Early Christian Writers • most of these considered population from a moral or ethical standpoint

13. Theory • most were pronatalist (Paul and Augustine were exceptions!) • Why pronatalism? • The Moslem Writers • Their views were similar to the early Hebrew and Christian writers but one is particularly noteworthy • His name was Ibn Khaldun and he wrote in the 14th century. Has been called the first sociologist!

14. Theory • His contributions are twofold: • 1. He said that a densely settled population was conducive to higher levels of living since it permitted a greater DOL • 2. He maintained that a state’s periods of prosperity alternate with periods of decline and that fluctuations in population occur in rhythm with these economic fluctuations.

15. Theory • Now we are up to the period from about the late 1400’s to the late 1700’s • There are many important changes taking place: • the Renaissance • the emergence of the nation state • new scientific discoveries • the rapid growth of trade • and most important, the development of capitalism

16. Theory • Two schools of thought emerged: • The Mercantilists and the Physiocrats • Mercantilism: National policy (economic policy) should concentrate on increasing the power and wealth of the state. • This could be accomplished by: • the expansion of trade • the development of manufacuring

17. Theory • One of the ways to do this was to promote population growth. • This was to be done by: • encouraging marriage and large families • improving public health • checking emigration to other countries • promoting immigration of skilled workers

18. Theory • The Physiocrats: believed that the agricultural sector was of paramount importance • The growth of the entire economy was governed by the increase in agricultural production. • So..did not accept the pro population growth ideas of the mercantilists!

19. Theory • Now recognize that population growth was of secondary concern to both the mercantilists and the physiocrats. • The principle concern was whether the agricultural or the industrial sectors were of greatest importance. • This then lays the groundwork for Malthus who represents the first of the “modern” theorists!

20. Theory • Early Modern Theory (late 1700’s to the late 1800’s) • Thomas Robert Malthus (the “gloomy parson”) • Published the first edition of his Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798. • A bit of background: • The essay was written after five years of bad harvests (1792-1797)

21. Theory • He was not the first to suggest that man’s capacity to reproduce was unlimited while his ability to produce his sustenance was limited but his was the most forceful presentation of this idea! • He was the first to develop a comprehensive population theory in relation to economic conditions. • In essence he contended that:

22. Theory • 1. Man could increase his food production only in arithmetic progression • 2. But, population tended to increase geometrically • So..food increased 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 etc. • While population increased 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256

23. Theory • In two centuries the ratio would be 256/9 • In three, it would be 4096\13 • So, the ultimate check on population growth would be the lack of food! • But, there were other checks operating as well: • The Preventative checks • The Positive Checks

24. Theory • The Preventative Checks -voluntary ones • Moral restraint • Vice • The Positive Checks - Involuntary ones • All factors which lead to the shortening of life • Now, much of of Malthus’ influence and the controversy surrounding him came not from his views on population but from his rigid views on society!

25. Theory • Specifically, his ideas about the poor! • These ideas had considerable impact on Charles Darwin and his notion of “natural selection. • Critiques of Malthus: • First, recall that he was called the “gloomy parson”. This line of attack came primarily from Godwin and Condorcet who were optimists about society’s problem

26. Theory • The second criticism is that he was moralist rather than a scientist • The third major critique was that he was simply incorrect • The other major school of thought in the early modern category is the Marxist approach • Owes much to William Godwin - recall that he was an optimist concerning population growth!

27. Theory • Historical context • writing 50 years after Malthus • the Industrial revolution is in full swing • industrial capitalism is seen as the culprit of all of society’s ills • Marx and Engel’s Theory • Malthus’s “overpopulation” could be ascribed to the capitalist mode of production • Capitalism is a labor surplus economic system so:

28. Theory • Unemployment, underemployment and poverty are built into the system! • These people are part of Malthus’s “overpopulation” problem • Marx called them the”industrial reserve army” • a new societal organization was needed, that system would be a socialist one and it would have at its disposal: • a highly developed productive capacity which would be managed by careful planning

29. Theory • So, production would keep pace with population growth and provide for the population’s well being!!! • The Marxian legacy - Lenin and the more contemporary socialist writers • We want to discuss three other early modern theorists: • Coste, Durkheim and Dumont

30. Theory • Coste - social evolution is the result of the growth of population and increases in its density. • Durkheim - rapid population growth would result in a greater DOL and thus a better integrated society. • Dumont formulated the “principle of capilarity” - people with smaller families would be “pushed up” in social position.

31. Theory • Late Modern Theory - the 20th Century • We’ve already discussed the neo Marxist approaches, there are three other modern theories of interest to us: • Demographic Transition Theory • The Theory of Demographic Change and Response • The Relative Income Hypothesis

32. Theory • Demographic Transition Theory • based on actual historical experience • an attempt to formulate a generalized explanation of the process of mortality an fertility decline • a stage based model • Landry (1909) three stages or “regimes”

33. Landry’s Model I II III Fertility Mortality Levels Time

34. Theory • Another formulation is by Thompson. He grouped countries according to their birth and death rates: • 1. Very rapidly declining birth and death rates • 2. Declining birth and death rates for certain classes but with death rate declining as rapidly or more rapidly leading to stable population growth

35. Theory • 3. Declining birth and death rates with rapidly declining death rate leading to very rapid population growth • Blacker identified five stages! • Notestein also suggested three stages but he suggested that mortality declines as a result of modernization and then fertility follows with some lag.

36. Theory • How might modernization lead to demographic change? • The basic idea behind all of these formulations is that societies evolve through a series of stages through which fertility and mortality decline! • Problems with the theory: • Is it a theory • What about the contemporary LDC’s?

37. Theory • Is it equally useful for understanding the socialist and capitalist nations? • Caldwell’s reformulation of transition theory - the “wealth flow” argument • The Theory of Demographic Change and Response - Kingsley Davis (1963) • Also called the Theory of the Multiphasic Response

38. Theory • Not really an alternative to Transition Theory, rather more like an adjunct to it. • The basic argument is: • mortality decline put pressure on the family • specifically on family resources • so, people attempt to relieve that pressure • the response is a matter of the means available to them

39. Theory • Delayed marriage • international migration • sterilization • abortion • or the increased use of contraception • There is no single means by which the birth rate is brought down following a decline in mortality!

40. Theory • The Relative Income Hypothesis - Easterlin