Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director Low Carbon Innovation Centre

1. Rotary Club of Wymondham 11th August 2003 Hard Choices Ahead Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Range of predicted temperatures

5. Local impacts • Norfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to be most impacted. • Re-distribution of rainfall; lower summer rainfall. • Landscape/agriculture changes • Lower summer riverflows; reedbeds under stress

6. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

7. The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 • Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? • Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? • Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? • “exemplar for the world”

8. The CRed Community • Participatory/inclusive • Partnerships • Modes of participation (targets/methods) • Matrix of modes of participation = representative of real-world complexity • Spark imaginations • Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across the region, country, the world….

9. The right language? 5 hot air balloons full of CO2 per person per year (4 million per year over Norfolk)

11. How do we know the CRed community represents our region? Liftshare Suffolk C. Council Strattons Global Commodities Powergen Deepdale Farm SLP Energy Woody’s Diocese of Norwich Banham Poultry Eastern Heatpumps Camelot Craft Norwich Union EEDA Kingswood School NEWS Norwich 21 Norwich Colour Print Farmers link Norfolk C.Council LEA SERCO The Broads Auth. May Gurney The RSPB BPS 100 + Sth Norfolk D. C. Alpha Schools R.Bilbie SUSTRANS AEEAC Amicus Jarvis LSI SMS EDP

12. Norfolk C.Council Suffolk C. Council LEA Norfolk C.Council Norwich City Sth Norfolk D. C. Powergen Banham Poultry Norwich Union Anglia Rwys EDP SLP Energy Anglia Rwys NEWS Nitex Global Commodities Liftshare Norwich Colour Print Strattons Deepdale Farm SMS Woody’s Camelot Craft Eastern Heatpumps Woodfordes BPS Jarvis Kingswood School Alpha Schools LEA Maswood Jalil 100 + RNAA Farmers link NFU Individual Farmers SERCO LSI R.Bilbie AEEAC May Gurney Norwich 21 The Broads Auth. SUSTRANS Renewables East Amicus BRE Powergen The RSPB EEDA Norwich Diocese EST

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

15. Despite Government announcements last month we still need significant development of onshore wind. GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruplepower generated from offshorewind farms by 2010will fail because it isassuming unproven technology will deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors warned this week. There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed, and only one other is under construction. Offshore wind looses up to 8% of electricty compared to onshore. New Civil Engineer: 17th July 2003

16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

18. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future. • Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

19. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation is now posted on the WEB at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm