Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

1. CRed Bedfordshire Renewable Energy Forum 23rd March 2004 Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Climate Change; Local Renewable Energy: Hard Choices Ahead • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre • School of Environmental Sciences: University of East Anglia

2. Carbon 3 Gas Mammoth Coastal Erosion Climatic History Carbon 2 Coal Kings Lynn Carbon Eras Peterborough Carbon 1 Peat Norfolk Floods Recent Events Great Yarmouth Electricity Cambridge Star Fish Renewables Suffolk Sizewell Little Barford Dunwich Conservation Bedford Essex Rye House Canvey Island 1953 Floods Hertfordshire Carbon 3 Oil Tilbury Climate and Energy in the East

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Reasons for Concern Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Large Increase Net Negative for all marketsmost Negative for most Regions Higher Risk oC Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Current temperature Risks to Some Negative for some Regions Increase Very Low Risk Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 I II III IV V I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climatic Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

5. Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions. Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear Nuclear Scenario Gas Scenario Coal Scenario 20% reduction 60% reduction • 20 year growth in demand • 1.8-2% per annum • 2.2% in 2003 Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years

6. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

7. UK • Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 • in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% • Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh • Revision of Building Regulations brought forward • EU • Biofuels Directive for Transport • 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 • Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004.

8. Legislative Barriers to Sustainability • Carbon Emission Trading - UK National Allocation Plan • Several Serious Flaws • Does not reward “Early Action” • Based purely on Historical Emissions • Should be based (at least in part) on Technology employed • Fails to address issue of improved Load Factors of CHP where these are subsequently associated with adsorption chilling • Does not reward efforts towards energy conservation in past. • Restrictions on Grants (Heat Recovery Heat Pumps) • up to 80% of heat energy can be needed for ventilation • excluded from grants unless incorporated in a ground loop recovery system.

9. Carbon Reduction • The Community Response • The CRed Project • Awareness Raising. • Technical Solutions • Renewable Energy • Energy Conservation

10. The CRed ambition • To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 • Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? • Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? • Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? • “exemplar for the world”

11. The CRed Community • Participatory/inclusive • Partnerships • Modes of participation (targets/methods) • Matrix of modes of participation = representative of real-world complexity • Spark imaginations • Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, and East of England, but links across the country, the world….

12. CRedibility • School of Environmental Sciences 5** • Climatic Research Unit • Centre for Environmental Risk • Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment • Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

13. Awareness, perceptions, attitudes, acceptances Awareness-raising, demonstration & research project Scientific/technological The Challenges Woody’s Trucks running on 100% pure Bio-diesel

14. Could CRed make a difference? • “I am delighted to see East Anglia take the initiative at regional level to achieve deep cuts in CO2 emissions”,Professor Sir David King • “CRed really can make a difference to the way the world approaches this important environmental challenge, by providing a focus for real action at the community level”, Alan Raymant, Head of Greengen, Powergen • “One of the best things to have emerged in this area in recent years”, The Lord Bishop of Norwich • CRed could be an exemplar for the world”,Michael Meacher

15. The Right Language On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 300 million each year for UK. CRed

16. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour 1.6 miles CRed

17. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 26th January 2004 Average daily Solar Gain to March 21st ~ 1.6 kWh

18. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project BroadSol is a Community based non-profit making group consisting of: • Broadland District Council (project management) • CRed(University of East Anglia) (monitoring) • CML Contracts (installers) • Prices kept low ( < £2000 per unit with Clear Skies Grant) by making is a community project with people signing up with a deposit in advance. • 50 installationsin Broadland. • Over-subscribed within 1 hour of launch. • Installation will be complete by 20th April 2004.

19. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Success of project depended on Local Authority and University involvement - seen as independent. Next Steps • Monitoring for 12 months will provide “REAL” data on performance - 17 units will be monitored at one minute intervals. • South Norfolk - now a partner for next launch • Others: Norwich, Great Yarmouth • BroadSol DIY - to be launched as Evening Classes in Autumn

20. How to use your to beat global warmingUniversity aims to shame ministers into tougher action Ian Sample, science correspondent - Wednesday August 27, 2003A group of scientists in East Anglia has launched an ambitious campaign to tackle the threat of global warming in an effort to shame ministers into stronger action on climate change. The task they have set themselves is formidable: to slash the region's emissions of carbon dioxide in half the time the government believes is possible. At first glance, the project, known as Cred, for carbon reduction, might easily be dismissed as well-meaning nonsense. But the team behind it, Keith Tovey and his colleagues at the University of East Anglia, belong to the most prestigious environmental science department in the country. "If anyone is going to do this, they will," said Dennis Thouless whose Norwich-based company, Global Commodities, collects used cooking oil from local businesses and turns it into fuel. The Cred project was set up in response to the government's white paper on energy, published in February. "The government pledged that they would be pushing to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by the year 2050," Dr Tovey said. "It looked impressive and sounded good, but didn't give any clues on how to do it. To put it bluntly, there were too many agendas being thrown around." The result was a statement of high intention that lacked any practical guidance. Growing frustration at the government's dithering has spurred Dr Tovey's team into action. They have taken the government's stated target of 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, which according to the royal commission on environmental pollution is vital to avoid the adverse effects of climate change, and pledged that East Anglia would meet it in half the time. "If we can show that the people here can achieve this target by 2025, we can turn around and say to everybody else, 'What's your excuse?'" Dr Tovey said. Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?" But Dr Tovey knows that slashing carbon dioxide in East Anglia will have little impact on global climate change. The people of East Anglia produce 6.5m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, against the 500m tonnes produced by the UK as a whole. "To make a real difference, the US will have to be doing this, but that will happen when they realise there is money to be made doing this." Word of the project is spreading beyond East Anglia. The Bishop of Herefordhas expressed an interest. A delegation from Japan which visited the Cred team may set up a similar project. The biggest threat to success now, the scientists believe, is that people's enthusiasm dries up as the novelty wears off. Dr Tovey said: "There's always a chance we will fail. But if we fail, it can't be said we haven't tried." Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?" Cred

21. Effet de serre : East Anglia montre l’exemplelundi 15 septembre 2003, par collecte CND R.E. Un groupe de scientifiques de l’université d’East Anglia, à l’Est de l’Angleterre, a lancé une campagne pour accélérer la réduction des émissions de dioxyde de carbone de la région. Baptisée CRed (pour Carbon Reduction Project), cette initiative ambitionne d’aller deux fois plus vite que les prévisions gouvernementales. Le projet a été lancé en réaction au livre blanc sur l’énergie publié en février dans lequel le gouvernement s’était fixé comme objectif une diminution de 60% des émissions de ce polluant d’ici 2050. Les responsables de CRed veulent y parvenir dès 2025. Pour cela, Keith Tovey et ses collègues ont réussi à mobiliser entreprises locales et particuliers pour faire des économies d’énergie et installer des panneaux photovoltaïques sur les toits. La prochaine étape consiste à rallier l’Eglise anglicane à leur cause. Exposées plein sud, les églises ont en effet de larges toitures qui peuvent capter l’énergie du soleil. Or, la région d’East Anglia compte plus de 600 chapelles. Si les scientifiques sont conscients du peu d’impact sur le changement climatique de leur action, ils comptent cependant provoquer d’autres initiatives. Une délégation japonaise est déjà intéressée par le projet. En France, la commune de Chalon-sur-Saône a déjà mis en place une action similaire pour réaliser en trois ans l’engagement de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pris par l’Europe sur dix ans. Pour lire notre article sur l’initiative de Chalon-sur-Saône.

22. ecologia e ambiente SULL’EFFETTO SERRA L’EAST ANGLIA DA’ L’ESEMPIO dalla redazione di Bruxelles Bruxelles, 15 settembre - Un gruppo di scienziati dell’università di East Anglia (Inghilterra) ha lanciato una campagna per accelerare la riduzione delle emissioni di anidride carbonica della regione. Battezzato CRed (Carbon Reduction Project), l’iniziativa ha l’ambizione di andare due volte più veloce delle previsioni governative. Il progetto (http://www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx) è stato lanciato il reazione al Libro Bianco sull’energia pubblicato in febbraio nel quale il governo britannico aveva fissato come obiettivo una diminuzione del 60% delle emissioni di CO2 entro il 2025. Per riuscire nell’impresa, Keith Tovey e i suoi colleghi sono riusciti a mobilitare le aziende locali e i cittadini per avviare programmi di efficienza e risparmio energetico e installare pannelli fotovoltaici. La prossima tappa consiste nel convincere la Chiesa anglicana a dar loro il suo sostegno. Esposte in pieno sud, le chiese hanno infatti grandi tetti che sono ideali per installare impianti che captano energia solare, e nella regione di East Anglia ci sono più di 600 tra chiese e cappelle. Benché gli scienziati siano coscienti dello scarso impatto della loro iniziativa sul cambiamento climatico, contano tuttavia di promuovere altre iniziative. Una delegazione giapponese si è già interessata al progetto. Indice ecologia e ambiente

23. Ida-Anglia näitab maailmale eeskuju süsihappegaasierituse piiramisel27/08/03 07:49:56Arni Alandi Rühm Suurbritannia Ida-Anglia teadlasi algatas suurejoonelise kampaania tulemaks toime üleilmse kliimasoojenemise ohuga ning häbistamaks ministreid, kes kliimamuutuse ärahoidmiseks liiga vähe ette on võtnud. Teadlased on endale püstitanud aukartustäratava ülesande: vähendada piirkonna süsihappegaasi õhkupaiskamist poole lühema aja jooksul valitsuse määratud graafikust. Esmapilgul võib Credi nime kandev projekt tunduda mittemidagiütleva mõttetusena. Ühendkuningriigi teadlased usuvad, et nii see siiski pole, sest projekti taga seisavad väga väärikad ja tunnustatud teadlased. Ida-Anglia ülikooli keskkonnateaduste õppetooli peetakse parimaks omataoliseks kogu Suurbritannias. Kateedrit juhivad Keith Tovey ja tema kolleegid. “Kui keegi nii julge lubaduse täitmisega hakkama saab, siis just Tovey rühm” on Dennis Thouless, firma Global Commodities juht, kindel. Thoulessi firma kogub kohalikelt ettevõtteilt kasutatud toiduõli, et seda autokütuseks töödelda. Cred loodi vastusena valitsuse veebruaris välja antud “valgele energeetikapaberile”. Dokumendis tõotab valitsus vähendada süsihappegaasieritust 2050. aastaks 60 protsendi võrra. Tovey sõnul on valitsuse “valgele paberile” kirja pandud üsna kenad mõtted ja kogu dokument kõlab hästi. Paraku pole kodanikele antud ühtki juhist, kuidas kirjapandud kauneid mõtteid ellu viia. Et segadust veelgi suurendada, on “valge paberi” sihtide saavutamiseks üheaegselt käibel mitmeid tegevuskavu. Tagajärjeks on väga suur tähelepanu kasvuhoonegaasiemissioonide vähendamisele samaaegselt igasuguste praktiliste juhiste puudumisega.

25. Wind Turbines at UEA? Yare Valley Society have been universally opposed to any development in Yare Valley. BUT Using a careful consultation, opinions changed.

26. Emphasised turbines – from Broad On their questionnaire - 21% voted 50% in favour

27. Difficult Choices Ahead

28. Difficult Choices Ahead Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

29. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

30. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

31. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

32. Our Choices: They are difficult • A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security. BUT: Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply • A diverse renewable supply will be local • less prone to cascade power cuts • Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW • Failure of one of these requires much greater backup • Localised generation reduces transmission/distribution losses

33. The Future Sustainable Technology And Renewability STAR of the EAST • An integration of ideas: • Awareness about Climate Change and Energy Issues • A demonstration integrated Renewable Power Station. • A Research facility for cutting edge technology • A centrefor Industries of the Future • A Tourist attraction • A link for the Region • A Conference Venue for Sustainability

34. Detailed Aerial Photograph Existing Switching Station Pylons Former Power Station - now demolished

35. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

36. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

37. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

38. View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

39. Sustainable Technology And Renewablility The Star of the EAST Climatic History Carbon Eras Recent Events Electricity Renewables Conservation STARS of excellence in each County Write to EEDA in Support of the STAR by next MONDAY

40. What is CRed doing - will you become a partner? Will you pledge to reduce Carbon Dioxide? As an Individual, the pledge might be a small challenge: for an Organisation, it might be a large one. Visit the CRed Website www.cred-uk.org to pledge on-line This presentation will be on the WEB from 24th March at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Keith Tovey: k.tovey@uea.ac.uk Diocese of Norwich Global Commodities Your Energy Grp Rainbow foods Strattons BroadLand D.C. Whitby Bird Powergen Deepdale Farm Liftshare Norwich City FC SLP Energy Suffolk County Council Norwich Union Amicus Woody’s CML Contractors Eastern Heatpumps Camelot Craft Kingswood School EBC Ltd. Norfolk County Council EEDA Norwich 21 Fielden & Mawson Eastern Daily Press Creative Construction Farmers link Norwich City Council The BroadsAuthority. May Gurney LEA SERCO EEEGr Foodlink Sth Norfolk D. C. BPS Alpha Schools 100 + The RSPB SUSTRANS R.Bilbie Amicus AEEAC Jarvis LSI SMS EDP