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Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead. Cromer & Sheringham Rotary Club: February 24 th 2010. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

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Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

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  1. The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead Cromer & Sheringham Rotary Club: February 24th 2010 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) Н.К.ТовиM.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich

  2. Increasing Occurrence of Drought 2

  3. Increasing Occurrence of Drought Increasing Occurrence of Flood 3

  4. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطبالشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 تغير المناخاثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years • 20 ٪تخفيض في 24 سنوات 4 4 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  5. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? • Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. • Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

  6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 6

  7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 7

  8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 9

  10. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

  11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK.

  12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

  13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

  16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  17. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap

  18. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size • Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 • New Nuclear assumes completing 1 nuclear station each year beyond 2018 • New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

  19. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  20. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

  21. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  22. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

  23. The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 23

  24. Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

  25. Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

  26. Rotary is a Community • Which can spread the message • Engage with Schools • Dispel myths • Use simple messages that people understand often monetary values mean more • Think about our own actions. • Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year • Can we car share when going to District Council? • Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel. • Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK. • Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years • Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years • Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming • Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times. • We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to combat the challenges facing us.

  27. The Unbalanced Triangular Trade 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.33 billion people Aid & Education Products: 478 Mtonnes CO2 increase (2002-05) Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years (2002 – 2005) 1.03 billion people

  28. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be on WEB from this evening >follow Academic Resources Link And Finally • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。” LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 （604-531BC）中国古代思想家、哲学家

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