“A LPB demonstration project”
Download
1 / 8

“A LPB demonstration project” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 95 Views
  • Uploaded on

“A LPB demonstration project”. Celeste Saulo CIMA and Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sciences University of Buenos Aires Argentina Christopher Cunningham Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies National Institute for Space Research Brasil. WHY LA PLATA BASIN?.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' “A LPB demonstration project”' - tana


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

“A LPB demonstration project”

Celeste Saulo

CIMA and Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sciences

University of Buenos Aires

Argentina

Christopher Cunningham

Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies

National Institute for Space Research

Brasil


WHY LA PLATA BASIN?

Area: 3.100.000 km2

Inhabitants: 201.656.965

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


Gifs fdp proposal

GIFS-FDP PROPOSAL

It is proposed to establish a GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) focusing on La Plata Basin.

The main motivation is the variety of meteorological systems and scales that interact to produce the climatological summer (ONDJFM) rainfall patterns in the La Plata basin

In other words it is suggested that the La Plata basin is a suitable “test bed” for the assessment of model performance and the development of  specific tools for high impact weather forecasting, among others

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


Gifs fdp objective

GIFS-FDP OBJECTIVE

The ultimate objective would be to develop and test TIGGE-based products that meet the needs and requirements of the operational weather forecast community, in order to evaluate the benefit of those products in an operational context

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


GIFS-FDP BENEFITS

Potential benefits derived from implementation of GIFS-FDP at LPB:

Assessment of the TIGGE models performance in a key region of the planet

Building of intellectual capacity (i.e., enhancing capacity building at several levels, including scientific, operational and decision making)

Exchange of expertise among the nations involved

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS

Focus on heavy rainfall prediction, since advantages of ensemble forecasting applied to severe weather have to be fully demonstrated

Focus on producing forecast tools tailored to users needs

Synchronize this FDP agenda with the agenda of the field experiment CHUVA

Science: use this unique opportunity to calibrate/verify ensembles with more observations than usually available and possibly address questions like: 

which is the impact of extra data on forecast quality? (this includes data assimilation community)

How can we use model error statistics to understand which processes are strongly affecting forecast quality so that key problems can be isolated ad models improved?

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


GIFS-FDP CENTRAL IDEAS

Importance of looking closer into two different but related scales:

WEATHER: Early detection of events of extreme precipitation in short-term forecast horizon (1-5 days)

EXTENDED WEATHER (intraseasonal): Estimation of changing probabilities in the near future

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


GIFS-FDP ACTIONS

Capacity building: organize short-intensive courses, before the “forecast demonstration” phase, with specific focus on:

statistical techniques for optimal use of ensemble forecasting - probabilistic forecasts

ensemble verification/calibration

Promote liaisons with decision making sector (energy, early warning, water management, …)

Develop bias corrected TIGGE model outputs

Statistically downscaling of TIGGE model outputs to main cities in LPB

Ninth GIFS –TIGGE MEETING - 31st August to 02nd September 2011 – Geneva, Switzerland


ad