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Alan Nogee Energy Program Director Union of Concerned Scientists ucsusa

"The Price, Reliability, and Environmental Impacts of Electricity- Related Fuel Diversity Trends in New England". Alan Nogee Energy Program Director Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org Massachusetts Restructuring Roundtable Boston, MA December 1, 2000.

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Alan Nogee Energy Program Director Union of Concerned Scientists ucsusa

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  1. "The Price, Reliability, and Environmental Impacts of Electricity- Related Fuel Diversity Trends in New England" Alan Nogee Energy Program Director Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org Massachusetts Restructuring Roundtable Boston, MA December 1, 2000

  2. Oil and gas prices are volatile • Oil prices are up 150% since first quarter 99 • Gas prices up more than 200% Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, 10/2000

  3. Renewables can increase diversity and restrain gas price increases • RPS reduces demand for natural gas • Gas price lower by $0.23/mmBTU (7.5%) in 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000 RPS: 7.5% renewables by 2010, no cap or sunset case

  4. Gas savings offset electricity costs of RPS 8 Change in Consumer Electricity Costs 6 4 Billion 98$ Net Cost 2 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 -2 Change in Consumer Gas Costs Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000; RPS: 7.5%, no cap or sunset case -4

  5. N.E. renewables can reduce electricity prices • Renewables = 50% of new generation • Assumes gas increases to 25% of generation by 2010 • Gas projected by some to equal 50-67% of generation by 2003 Business as usual Increased renewables Source: Assessing New England's Energy Future, New England Governors' Conference, December 11, 1996, p. V-6

  6. RPS “options”? "Regarding the RPS a retailer has three options. It can have the RPS relegislated and eliminated. It can try in good faith to sell renewable energy but the supply may not exist. Or it can not try to sell it and say it did.” • A T&D company moving toward integrated energy provision (Generation, T&D and retail) Source: Bain & Co. for Mass. Technology Collaborative

  7. Renewables potentially eligible for MA or CT RPS Renewables under development can meet standards through 2008 Source: Sustainable Energy Advantage survey for UCS

  8. Renewable energy standards and funds Standards only = 4 states Standards+funds = 8 states Funds only = 6 states Restructured, no policy = 8 states

  9. Texas Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin New Jersey Connecticut Massachusetts Maine Renewables expected from state standards and funds 18,000 8,550 MW new renewables 7,800 MW existing renewables Other* 16,000 CO2 reduction equivalent to * 1.2 billion more trees * 3.9 million less cars 14,000 California 12,000 Nevada 10,000 Arizona Megawatts New Mexico 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 *Includes Illinois, Montana, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

  10. Coal generation to continue to growElectricity generation by fuel (Billions of kWh) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, Early Release

  11. Carbon emission reductions Sources: States - UCS; Green market, Hi - EPA; Jeffords - ACEEE

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