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FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvia n Union of Scientists

FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvia n Union of Scientists. KS Information Seri es I: Foresight for an Enlarged Europe. June 2003. Rethinking and Foresighting Knowledge and Society. apfstudies@netscape.net. Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga, Head of Un it.

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FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvia n Union of Scientists

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  1. FORWARD STUDIES UNITto the Latvian Union of Scientists KS Information Seri es I: Foresight for an Enlarged Europe June 2003

  2. Rethinking and Foresighting Knowledge and Society apfstudies@netscape.net Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga, Head of Un it

  3. The societal value of Foresight is both in the processand the products generated. Science Governance Society Governance Society Science Society Science Governance

  4. FORWARD STUDIES UNITto the Latvian Union of Scientists • Systemin the making: researchers and practitioners, partners involved in future studies andforesight. • Founded in February 2003, Riga

  5. FORWARD STUDIES UNITto the Latvian Union of Scientists Functions are related to activities at organizational, national and European levels aimed at: • creating of learning space • coordination of foresight activities • information production • monitoring • dissemination

  6. Address:Akademijas laukums 1- 611a, Riga, LV-1524, Latvia • Latvian Union of Scientists (LUS) Dr.hab. Janis Strauchmanis, Chairman Tel (371) 9486283 Dr.Arturs Puga, Head of Forward Studies Unit Tel /fax (371) 7589623, apfstudies@netscape.net

  7. FORESIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

  8. THE FORESIGHT DIMENSION OF THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA During the past Community Framework Programmes, many collaborative actions have been initiated at European level, but now is the time to bring our endeavours together, and to build a space for research and innovation equivalent of the ‘common market’ for goods and services. ...our policy proposal for the European Research Area, when we made it early 2000, had itself some of the key features of an exercisein foresight; Mr. Philippe Busquin,European Commissionerfor Research. 'The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

  9. Foresighting Europe,Issue 1, March 2003Newsletter of he Science and Technology Foresight Unit, Directorate K , DG Research , European Commission there are specific European policies (the Lisbon Strategy, the development of the ERA, the reform of European Governance) that call for a greater and more co-ordinated attention to Foresight thinking

  10. http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/home.html http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/reports.htm http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/newsletter.htm

  11. Foresightcontributes positively to strategic intelligence: • Aimed at producing orientations rather than predictions.It provides scenarios to decision makers thus opening their readiness for change; • Includes multiple perspectives, multiple actors and multiple disciplines; • Focused on opportunities and risks alike; • Emphasizes the interrelations between the technological, economic, social and cultural sectors of society.

  12. Why Foresight ?

  13. Thinking, debating and shapingthe future:Foresight for EuropeReport by HLEG for the European Commission, 25 April, 2002

  14. Foresight has an impact on all policy fields

  15. HLEG on ‘Developing foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA’ Chair,Prof. Luk Van Langenhoveftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/foresight/docs/for_hleg_final_report_en.pdf Science and technology foresight in Europe: A prospective view... The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

  16. Towards 2010 EC, Employment and Social Affairs DG, Knowledge Society http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.htm

  17. Rise of Knowledge Society “Knowledge Society is a post-industrial society based on production and dissemination of information that increases individuals and companies’ knowledge”. Foresight for the deveoplment of higher education/research relations in the perspective of the European Research Area (ERA). By Prof. Etienne Bourgeois, Rapporteur. EC, DG Research, Unit RTD-K.2. October 2002. p. 10

  18. Governing in time: long-termism and the role of futures thinking in the UK Government ( ConferenceThe role of foresight ...) By Prof. Geoff Mulgan, Director Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit (UKPrime Minister’s Office) European Knowledge Society Foresight – a Handbook of Methodology

  19. European Knowledge Society Foresight- a Handbook of Methodology November 2002 PREST and FFRC for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

  20. Renewal Pre-Foresight Action Generation Recruitment Foresight as a Process

  21. Implementation Renewal Dissemination Scoping Action PreForesight Management Monitoring Evaluation Generation Recruitment Stakeholders Synthesis Intelligence Gathering Panels Targeting Experts Knowledge Fusing Visioning Foresight as a Process: methods

  22. Foresight’s triple base Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing networks Networking tools and techniques, groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc. Informing and legitimising action, establishing preparedness Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding... Futures methods, forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary approaches, etc. Planning tools and techniques, priority setting, etc. Foresight Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes and mechanisms Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions Strategic action plans Network-ing Fore-sight Plan-ning Futures

  23. HANDBOOK OF KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/handbook.htm http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/documents/EFL_Handbook_April_2003.pdf http://www.wbcsd.ch/DocRoot/LUWbCOQ8l1DFtZv5WB0U/20021118_sdmap.pdf SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (a wiring diagram of the global challenges)

  24. FORESIGHT SYSTEM ‘Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge with which to effect social, economic and environmental improvements based onwell founded projections.

  25. FORESIGHT SYSTEM However,it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient technology to conduct foresight.It isalso vitally important to ensure that foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making.Only in this way can its maximum benefits be obtained.’ Ramon Marimon. Spanish Secretary of State for Science and Technology. Conference ‘The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities’.

  26. Prospective and Foresight: towards a convergence ? Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT proGective / euroProspective France http://foren.jrc.es/docs/conference/session 4/presentation goux baudiment.ppt

  27. A B C The Easiest Way to Face The Confrontation • Sometimes the shortest way from A to B is not the direct one • The Japanese “Vision” will be C, even 9 x C ! • The long road from technology to society • The shortest one from territory to society…

  28. “Vision” as Origin of Foresight • 1963, the Japanese “Vision” : • A public administration technology for shaping the future • The future to be shaped brings together expected, possible and preferred futures • A concrete blueprint in a close interaction with general [industrial] policy • Policy implementation in which contributors to the Vision are given broad participation.

  29. “Vision” as Origin of Foresight • 1960’s-1980’s, the key factors of success : • Formulated from a total comprehensive system perspective • Given further consideration by experts of related fields • Are joint products between government and representatives from a broad spectrum • Prompt policy reaction implemented in response • Contributors can participate in consortia and conduct what they proposed (here: R&D)

  30. “Vision” as Origin of Foresight • 1990’s, a Turning Point and a new “Vision”: • Government and industry no longer shared the same expectations and preferences: dissensus • Immediate result shows: • a real quality of listening to each other (change of strategy, from creation to consolidation) • the need of an integrated and interdisciplinary approach, with interministerial implementation, to face crisis and complex issues • the implementation of large discussions (single forum for advisory councils, Competitiveness Council of Ministers and Chairmen of leading firms) • A strong top-down initiative by the Prime Minister, challenging the autonomy of the “Visions” concept.

  31. Comprehensive Concrete Consensus Commitment Credibility Communication Concentration Coordination Consortia The Heritage of “Visions”

  32. First Convergence… • The Japanese Vision is anchored into the R&D in the S&T field in conjunction with economy; v. technological forecast: normative process, interdisciplinary and integrated approach, broad participation, open future • Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the LT future of TS,, the economy and society to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits.Benjamin R. MARTIN, 1995

  33. Foresight: The Long Road • a comparison between German and Japanese approach for technology foresight shows the impacts of the cultural factors (1994) • The point of the world paradigm shift (1990’s) is human being (society & values) • Foresight is moving from technology to society (Australia, UK) • Foresight pushes the boundaries of perception forward by assessing the implications of present actions, detecting and avoiding problems before they occur, considering the present implications of possible future events, and envisioning aspects of desired futures. Richard A. SLAUGHTER, 1996.

  34. The Short Road: The French Prospective • From the Government (1970’s): prospective as a tool for planning (CGP & DATAR) • To Regions (1980’s): regional prospective as a strategic tool • To sub-regions (counties, cities, metropolitan area) (1990’s): territorial prospective as a tool for planning and local governance • A long tradition : 85 exercises of regional and territorial prospective identified from 1988 to 2000

  35. Human being as the centre of any meaning Future to be built Problem-solving, concrete Interdisciplinary Long term view Systemic thinking Responsibility: involve relevant actors (stakeholders) Project based on a shared vision Large participation Introduce and accompany change Rigorous methodology Key Words For Territorial Prospective

  36. Territorial Prospective:Still A Step Forward Japanese Vision MT S&T / economy Government / firms MT: 10 years Immediate response Foresight S&T / economy / society Government / experts MT: 10 years ? Territorial Prospective territory / economy / society Local actors / stakeholders LT: 15-20 years Self-made project / planning LT actions programmes general framework

  37. Differences foresight/prospective The bottom/up – top/down process government prospective foresight Autonomy of Territories Regions, Cities…

  38. Differences foresight/prospective sectoral – comprehensive field S & T foresight society economy prospective territory

  39. Differences foresight/prospective A future to anticipate or a future to build? exploratory foresight advancedmethodology classicalmethodology territorialprospective normative

  40. Differences foresight/prospective A future to anticipate or a future to build? exploratory foresight process results prospective normative

  41. Spaces For Convergence • Participation: • Who: authorities, experts, stakeholders, population ? Collective intelligence • How: consultation, “concertation”, ongoing process ? Knowledge base • Outcomes: consortia, networks, projects, planning ? (from bottom-up to top-down ?) • Why? As a tool for governance(cf. the French law Voynet)

  42. Sustainability issues No global solution without local drastic change The principle of subsidiarity The new legitimacy: the initiative of action Quality of life and environment as a new competitive advantage in the territorial competition S&T, economy, society and environment as a comprehensive challenge for tomorrow morning Spaces For Convergence

  43. FORESIGHT PHILOSOPHY Prof. Ortwinn Renn EU-Conference ‘Foresight: Challenges for Europe’s Regions’ Future ir product of human activities and random events. Foresight explores the space for human activities and interventions to shape the future (contingencies). Foresight provides options rather than predictions. Foresight provides guidance to all actors and reduces uncertainty and ambiquity.

  44. http://medlab.cs.uoi.gr/conf2003/background.htm “FORESIGHT IN THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN RESEARCH AND INNOVATION AREA” IOANNINA, Greece, 15 – 16 May, 2003

  45. Foresight refers to the 'basis' and its success depends on the 'basis'. The overall aim of foresight cooperation should be outlined in a single phrase: "increase democracy in governance and in building a more powerful Europe". Foresight cooperation, nevertheless, should not be a goal in itself. It should serve the need for national/regional systems to open up and allow for coordination and collaboration, and should also serve the aim to inform, sensitise, encourage and support people in getting actively involved in shaping the future they desire in the world they live in. Ioannina Conference Manifesto for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European Research and Innovation Area

  46. LATVIA TOWARDS KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

  47. Current issues and challengesVisions from Forward Studies Unit • A.Puga, J.Štrauhmanis. Latvijas Zinātnieku savienībā. Aicinājums uz diskusiju par nākotnes studijām Latvijā. ( A Call for the discussion on the development of future studies in Latvia, by Forward Studies Unit to the Latvian Union of Scientists). Zinātnes Vēstnesis ( Science Herald), # 7 (257), 14. 04. 2003. (in Latvian) • http://www.lza.lv/zv/zv030700.htm#4

  48. Current issues and challengesVisions from Forward Studies Unit • A.Puga. Nākotnes studijas Eiropā ( Future studies and foresight in Europe ) . Zinātnes Vēstnesis (Science Herald), # 10 (260), 26. 05. 2003. (in Latvian) • http://www.lza.lv/zv/zv031000.htm#7

  49. Current issues and challengesVisions from Forward Studies Unit Epistemology and man Knowledge and science is the assimilation of the message of freedom placed by Christ in the heart of man Science and the Future of Mankind: Science for Man and Man for Science.The proceedings of the Preparatory Session 12-14 November 1999 and theJubilee Plenary Session 10-13 November 2000,Pontificia Academia Scientiarym. p.14

  50. Current issues and challenges Dr. Luk Van Langenhove Rethinking the social sciences: initiatives from multilateral organizations First, there is a need to re-invent the infrastuctural needs. Living in a globalised world means that national infrastructures will have to be framed into international structures. ... the ITC revolution is changing the way in which the social sciences research is performed and communicated. Unity and diversity: the contribution of the social sciences and the humanities to the European Research Area. Proceedings of the Belgian EU Presidency research conference, 29-30 October, 2001, Bruges. p. 22 - 27

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