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Crop/Feed Markets

Crop/Feed Markets. Mobley Seminar Ames, Iowa August 31, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Projected Corn Yields. Source: USDA-NASS. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Projected Soybean Yields.

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Crop/Feed Markets

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  1. Crop/Feed Markets Mobley Seminar Ames, Iowa August 31, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use

  3. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  4. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

  5. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

  8. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

  9. Crop Conditions & Soybean Yields

  10. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use Source: USDA

  11. Biodiesel Production Source: DOE, EIA

  12. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA

  13. Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  15. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  16. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  17. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  18. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  19. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 8/30/2011

  20. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  21. Export Pace vs. Last Year Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  23. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  24. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  25. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  26. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  27. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  28. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  29. Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

  30. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  31. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE, EIA

  32. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  33. U.S. DDG Supply and Use My estimates, so take with a grain of salt Actually, you may want the whole salt block

  34. DDG Exports Source: USDA

  35. DDG Exports Source: USDA

  36. Supply vs. Demand Corn Soy

  37. Supply vs. Demand Corn Soy

  38. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  39. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  40. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  41. Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  42. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Debt limit, US credit rating • US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation • Supply/demand concerns • Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps? • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35 • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70, Soy $13.50 • Futures (as of 8/29/2011): Corn $7.42, Soy $14.00

  43. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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