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Immigrants and Boomers

Immigrants and Boomers. rediscovery of shared destiny in a new future of hope. Dowell Myers School of Policy, Planning, and Development. The Big Questions. What is the realistic hope about our immigrant future? What does it mean for Baby Boomers and voters today?

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Immigrants and Boomers

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  1. Immigrants and Boomers rediscovery of shared destiny in a new future of hope Dowell MyersSchool of Policy, Planning, and Development

  2. The Big Questions What is the realistic hope about our immigrant future? What does it mean for Baby Boomers and voters today? How can we rekindle a sense of common purpose?

  3. TURMOIL Post 1970 Our Historic and Future Transition Despair about Trends Loss of Common Purpose Rediscovery of Hope Rediscovery of Interdependence Common Investmentfor a Better Future

  4. Turmoil and Dismay 1. Economic disappointment post-1973 2. Vietnam and Watergate--loss of trust • Cultural fragmentation  counter-culture; multiculturalism; and more • Concentrated calamities in California, 1990-94 – natural disasters – social disruptions – deep recession & house price collapse

  5. and now the Crisis of the Two Demographic Challenges 5. Revival of immigration  amplifies all the other fears 6. Baby boomer retirements  fiscal and economic disaster

  6. CRISIS TheBaby Boomer Double decades of 30% increase

  7. The Growing Weight of Seniors Ratio of Seniors per 1000 Working-Age Residents, ages 25-64 California US Seniors per 1,000 67% increase in 20 years, 2010-30 2010 2000 1900 1950 Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3.2 Year

  8. Labor Force Slow Down Annual Percentage Growth 1970-1990 1990-2010 2010-2030 % • California • US Annual Percentage Growth Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3.3

  9. The Politicsof Discouragement

  10. Spending and Taxes in California By Age, 2000 Spending Dollars per Capita (2000 Dollars) Taxes Age Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 9.1; Ron Lee et al. (2003)

  11. Immigrants a Burden or a Benefit? Percent of White Voters who Believe Immigrants a Burden Liberals Conservatives Gap (L – C) 1998 2004 Change -11 +10 +21 40 54 -14 29 64 -35 Source: PPIC Statewide Survey; Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 7 & Table B.3

  12. Alternative Projections of Future Shares of CA Electorate White Latino Asian Black Total Fixed Voting Rates 2000 2020 Year Reaching 50% 70.4% 56.9% 2031 14.5 24.2 2073 7.4 11.4 --- 7.8 7.4 --- 100 100 --- Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Table 7.3

  13. The Rediscovery of HopeaboutImmigration and theFuture

  14. The Ultimate Question is What Future Do We Believe? HOPE • Steady Immigration • Mostly Settled Immigrants • Concentration of Upwardly Mobile Characteristics • Shared Destiny and Common Interest DESPAIR • Accelerating Immigration • Mostly New Immigrants • Concentration of Newcomers’ Characteristics • Protection of Isolated Self Interest

  15. The Key Changes…. The end of immigration acceleration More long-settled immigrants Upward mobility after longer residence

  16. Immigration is Leveling Off 1980=100 Source: Dowell Myers compilation from 1990 and 2000 censuses and American Community Survey; also Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3.8.

  17. Expectations of Foreign-Born Share in California Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 2.2

  18. The Longer Settlement of the Immigrant Population Source: Decennial census to 1970-2000; CDF 5.0 California Demographic Futures Percent of Total California Population 40% 30% 30+ Years in US 20-29 Years 10-19 Years Recent Immigrants 20% 10% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

  19. Upward Mobility of Latinos in CA HS Diploma English Proficiency Above Poverty Recent Immigrants 10-19 Years 20-29 Years 30+ Years 2nd Generation 3rd Generation Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 6.1 Homeownership U.S. Citizen Actual Voters

  20. Blinded by the Concentration of Newcomers Share of Foreign-Born Who Are Recently Arrived Los Angeles 53% (1990) Des Moines 61% (2000) Atlanta 61% Charlotte NC 64% Los Angeles 35% (2000) Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 6

  21. Turning Demographics From Problem Into Solution Immigration inflow no longer accelerating Greater benefits of settled immigrants Surprising upward mobility by immigrants Favorable return on education investments Rediscovery of the Hope Needed to Solve Our Shared Problems

  22. The Rediscovery of Common Purpose

  23. Intergenerational Social Contract Children’s Education $$ the cycle of roles Seniors’ Pensions Health Care Home-Sellers Replacement Workers New Taxpayers New Home Buyers $$ $$ Mature Adults: Maximum Financial Contributions $$ Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 9

  24. Who’s Going to Buy Your House? Myers’ Projection for 2020 Net buyers • Hispanic • Asian and Pacific Islander • Black • Non-Hispanic White Number of Buyers Less Sellers Net sellers Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 11.3

  25. TURMOIL Post 1970 The Old Story The New Story Despair about Trends Loss of Common Purpose Rediscovery of Mutual Support Rediscovery of Hope Common Investment for a Better Future

  26. ....it's anew day forCalifornia

  27. Thank You For more information Google “popdynamics” Dowell Myers School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California 2007 Thomas & Znanecki Award

  28. Major Contributions of Immigrants and Boomers 1. Linking Baby Boomers and Immigrants in mutual self-interest: home buying, taxpayers,etc. 2. The politics of how people “know” the future: reasons for despair and hope 3. Effects of immigration acceleration, followed by steady state -- past and future 4. The surprising upward mobility of Latinos • A new theory of the changing social contract • A longer and more integrated view of immigration and society

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