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Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices

Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices. Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics. Why forecast indices?. Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for Analysis Model evaluation Model development. Outline.

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Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices

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  1. Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space Physics

  2. Why forecast indices? • Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon • Used to drive models • Large data sets available for • Analysis • Model evaluation • Model development

  3. Outline • Some applications using geomagnetic indices • Real-time forecasts • The Lund Dst model • Model evaluation • Short term dynamics • Long term dynamics • Real-time operation

  4. Magnetospheric Specification Model Input: 50 keV el. - Kp http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html

  5. UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment Inputs: - Solar wind - Dst 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons10 keV to 1 MeV protons http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html

  6. SWRI Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV Input: - Dst http://climatology.space.swri.edu/

  7. NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Stormshttp://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  8. Input: - Kp

  9. Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.

  10. Real-time forecasts

  11. Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Indices Models http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/

  12. Solar Wind Monitor An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind

  13. Kp at RWC-Sweden http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc

  14. Dst at RWC-Sweden http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc

  15. Matlab Java

  16. Overall performance of different Dst models

  17. Dt Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst

  18. Power spectrum

  19. Wavelet of Dst 1.3 y 1 y 0.5 y 27 d

  20. Wavelet of predicted Dst 1.3 y 1 y 0.5 y 27 d

  21. Effect of data gaps

  22. Future • List of updated forecast models • ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) • Plots, Data, Models • Evaluation • Evaluation • RMS error and correlation (overall performance) • Skill scores (comparative overall performance) • Onset times • Long term dynamics • Real time performance

  23. Space Weather Technology Solar-Terrestrial Physics Power grid Indices Spacecraft

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