Climate Change – Defra’s Strategy & Priorities

1. Climate Change – Defra’s Strategy & Priorities Dr Steven Hill Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs 22nd May 2007 FLOODING DESTRUCTION AT INVERNESS

2. Summary • Climate change and stratospheric ozone programme • Policy needs/key questions • Programme details • Other research to support climate change policy • Sustainable agriculture • Natural resources and biodiversity • ‘Living with Environmental Change’ • Conclusions

3. Policy needs for science (all aspects) • Impartial and timely information and understanding about a problem • Impartial information about solutions • Advice about implications of scientific results • Data (observations or monitoring) • As a policy itself • As a negotiating tool – place at the table • Authority and integrity • Communication – convincing others

4. Some Key Questions - Global • What influence has human activity had on the climate and how will it change in the future, globally and regionally? • What are the related impacts? Can we adapt to these? • What level of climate change would be considered to be dangerous? • What scale /speed of mitigation is required to avoid dangerous climate change? • How can the world achieve such a level? • What form should future international agreements take? • What role should other countries play?

5. Some Key Questions - Domestic What is an appropriate UK contribution to emission reductions? • What are the UK’s emissions now and in the future? • What is the potential for land use change to absorb CO2? • What options do we have to reduce emissions in the most cost effective manner? • How can we adapt to climate change?

6. Scientific basis for advice • International assessments – IPCC • Defra funded research • UK science base • Ad hoc seminars and workshops • Current literature • International programmes / meetings

7. Key providers of information used by Defra for CC information • Hadley Centre – links to wider science community • UKCIP – focus for impacts • Research Council institutes (eg Tyndall Centre, BAS, CEH, ERC etc) • Universities (eg Reading, Oxford, Cambridge) • Public bodies (eg CEFAS, EA) • Private Institutes (AEA Technology, Royal Society) • Consultancies • Industry • EU (CION, EEA) • International Bodies (eg WCRP) • UN Agencies and including IPCC

8. CESA Research Programme Components 1 International negotiations on Climate Change 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3 UK Domestic programme on Mitigation 4 UK Domestic programme on Adaptation 5 Bilateral programmes on Climate Change 6 Underpinning science 7 Underpinning observations 8 Stratospheric Ozone 9 Organisational issues and cooperation with others 10 Resources

9. Table 1 GA research spend in 2005/6 (£k) Policy area £k, 2007/8 Climate Change Negotiations 250 IPCC 569 Domestic mitigation 1139 Domestic adaptation 971 Bilateral programmes (China & India) 431 CCP at Hadley Centre 13200 Underpinning observations 1186 Stratospheric Ozone 288 Other organisational issues, data distribution, energy efficiency 2016 Scoping study for stabilisation programme Total Allocation 150 20,200 Provisional allocation of research resources 2007/8

10. Cross Cutting Stabilisation Project in support of Future Action Agenda 1. For different levels of climate change what are the key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for the world as a whole? 2. What would such levels of climate change imply in terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations and emission pathways required to achieve such levels? 3. What options are there for achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gases at different stabilisation concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into account costs and uncertainties?

11. Adaptation • Major developments here – Adaptation Policy Framework • UKCIP Climate Scenarios 2008 • Decision making tools and risk analysis framework • Reducing uncertainty at regional level

12. UKCIP Scenarios • UKCIP02 All UK, 50km resolution • BIC Scenarios British-Irish Council 25 km resolution • UKCIP08 All UK, 25km resolution

13. Mitigation • Architecture for international agreements • Estimating costs of action/inaction • Technical potential for emission reductions • Environmental imperatives

14. Other relevant research programmes • Sustainable agriculture • Biodiversity and conservation

15. Sustainable agriculture • Agriculture and climate chain programme • Water quality and use • Food chain meeting consumer needs • Sustainable farming systems and biodiversity • Plant health

16. Agriculture and Climate Change • Inventories of emissions of pollution gases from agriculture to air • Mitigation of nitrogen and carbon emissions • Climate change and adaptation in agriculture • Energy in agriculture and food • Bioenergy • Renewable Materials

17. Overview of scientific evidence needs for Defra policy on biodiversity • Current status and trends in biodiversity • Understanding reasons for decline/unfavourable condition, assessing vulnerability and identifying effective remedial measures and strategies • Understanding and measuring the value of biodiversity and ecosystem services • Assessing the outcomes of policy • Innovation to improve decision making and delivery

18. Living with Environmental Change • Interdisciplinary research partnership (Research Councils, Government Departments and others) • Addressing ‘Treasury Challenge 5’Increasing pressures on natural resources and global climate from rapid economic and population growth in the developing world and sustained demand for fossil fuels in advanced economies • Focus on prediction (regional and decadal scales) and evaluation of response options • Integration of social and natural sciences

19. Conclusions • Defra funds a major research programme on understanding, mitigating and adapting to climate change • Climate change as an issue is a key driver across a range of Defra research programmes • The ‘Living with Environmental Change’ initiative represents a major opportunity to drive forward the research agenda in a framework grounded in policy needs