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Trident and public opinion: Evidence from the 2007 Scottish Election Study

Trident and public opinion: Evidence from the 2007 Scottish Election Study. Rob Johns Department of Government University of Strathclyde robert.johns@strath.ac.uk. Abstract.

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Trident and public opinion: Evidence from the 2007 Scottish Election Study

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  1. Trident and public opinion:Evidence from the 2007 Scottish Election Study Rob Johns Department of Government University of Strathclyde robert.johns@strath.ac.uk

  2. Abstract • Based on survey data collected around the time of the Scottish elections in 2007, this paper is about public opinion towards the British government’s decision to replace Trident.  First, I investigate the impact of the campaign on attitudes to Trident, noting that a fairly stable aggregate picture conceals considerable change in opinions at the individual level. Evidence that many minds are not yet made up is obviously important for those – like us – seeking to influence public opinion on this issue, and so I look at the characteristics of those who are yet undecided.  Then, turning to those respondents who did report an attitude, I assess the capacity of various social, demographic and political variables to predict whether those people are for or against Trident. Finally, I discuss the relationship between attitudes to Trident and party support, and present evidence that – despite the decision on Trident being a matter for the Westminster government – the issue had a marked impact on vote choice in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.

  3. Scottish Election Study 2007 • ESRC-funded • Internet survey via YouGov • Panel design – same people surveyed twice • 2 weeks before the election • in the few days after the election • 2 x 40-minute questionnaires • Number of respondents • 1,872 pre-election • 1,552 post-election

  4. Trident question • “The UK government has decided to replace Trident, Britain’s nuclear weapon system, when it comes to the end of its current life. How much do you agree or disagree with this decision?” • Strongly agree • Agree • Neither agree nor disagree • Disagree • Strongly disagree • Don’t know

  5. Attitudes to Trident: pre- and post-election

  6. Individual-level change pre- to post- Two questions: • How many people’s attitude changed? • By extension: how ‘crystallised’ are attitudes to Trident?

  7. Who are the undecideds?

  8. Who thinks what? – socio-demographics

  9. Who thinks what? - politics

  10. All in at once - Trident attitudes

  11. Trident and vote

  12. All in at once – Labour v SNP vote

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