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Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years

Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years. Carol A. Flannagan, Ph.D. Center for the Management of Information for Safe and Sustainable Transportation (CMISST) Biosciences Group, UMTRI. Motorcycle Crashes. The motorcycle helmet law was modified as of April 13, 2012

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Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years

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  1. Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years Carol A. Flannagan, Ph.D. Center for the Management of Information for Safe and Sustainable Transportation (CMISST) Biosciences Group, UMTRI

  2. Motorcycle Crashes The motorcycle helmet law was modified as of April 13, 2012 What was the picture of motorcycle crashes in 2012 and how did they change (or not) compared to previous years?

  3. Annual Numbers Annual motorcycle crashes:

  4. Annual Numbers Occupants of motorcycles in crashes:

  5. Who is involved in motorcycle crashes? 2008-2011

  6. Who is involved in motorcycle crashes? 2012

  7. What About Helmet Use? *74% is probably an underestimate of the true helmet use rate on the road

  8. Fatalities and InjuriesApr 13-Dec 31

  9. Fatalities and InjuriesApr 13-Dec 31 • Overall fatality rate in 2011 = 3.3% • Overall fatality rate for 2012 = 3.4% • Fatality rate was 2.8 times higher for those who didn’t wear helmets in 2012 compared to those who did

  10. Who Wears Helmets?

  11. Who Wears Helmets?

  12. Who Wears Helmets?

  13. Who Wears Helmets?

  14. How Does Fatality Risk Change with Alcohol and Helmet Use?

  15. Separating the Effect of Alcohol from the Effect of the Helmet How do we figure out what the helmet does separate from risk-taking factors like alcohol use? Regression models allow us to predict risk of fatality or injury account for alcohol, speed, age, and other factors

  16. Bottom Line… • Taking risk-taking factors into account, we find: • Alcohol more than quadruples the risk of death and nearly triples the risk of serious injury • After accounting for other risk factors, not wearing a helmet doubles the risk of fatality and increases the risk of serious injury by 60%

  17. Bottom Line… • If we apply the models to 2012 data and predict what would have happened if all riders had worn helmets, we would expect: • 26 fewer deaths (21% reduction) • 49 fewer serious injuries (8% reduction)

  18. Thanks for your attention. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI)

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